2024 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

Yagi or possible Kong-rey could be the strongest this season but seems pretty underwhelming if a typhoon didn't reach at least 155kts in a hot earth with a looming la nina or still neutral...
We still have November and December left but...

The tropical freak that was STY Rai formed in the last month of a second-year-in-a-row La Niña, a time when the Pacific was supposed to be running out of gas with unrelenting -ENSO pattern, not to mention it's December. After that occurence, I learned to never assume anything until the New Year comes.

[Hayabusa]

Aside from 90W struggling to develop it seems models are signaling for tropical development coming week 1-2...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

12z GFS has three consecutive typhoons... is this a sign of a WWB/MJO or is this run most likely just rubbish?

[Hayabusa]

Gfs 06z with a double major typhoon striking the Philippines

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Models very very bullish on the next invests, especially the GFS which shows long-tracking intense storms not in the long range. Turns out we may have quite a backloaded season all along a la 2019. Unfortunately, the Philippines may have to deal with impacts again.

[Ed_2001]

According to Colorado State University's real time ACE tracker, WPAC still has around 53 units of ACE left to generate on average.

Since this post 2 weeks ago there were ~40 units between Kong-Rey and Yinxing, which is sill active. That and Toraji, Manyi, and esp. future Usagi may actually put us well over. Quite a late season comeback. Since even December might produce in the WPAC, I actually think now decent chance we go north of 200 ACE this year.

[Hayabusa]

4 active tropical systems

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is certainly not your typical November.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From writing off this season, I now think this season now has a realistic chance of not only surpassing 200, but having the most November ACE since 1991.

[Pasmorade]

From writing off this season, I now think this season now has a realistic chance of not only surpassing 200, but having the most November ACE since 1991.

Truly odd how an ENSO-neutral season is outperforming a powerful El Nino the year prior. Only Jelawat developed in November 2023, while 2024 has four tropical systems already.

[TyphoonNara]

From writing off this season, I now think this season now has a realistic chance of not only surpassing 200, but having the most November ACE since 1991.

Truly odd how an ENSO-neutral season is outperforming a powerful El Nino the year prior. Only Jelawat developed in November 2023, while 2024 has four tropical systems already.

I wouldn't say it is too surprising. Unless very extreme, La Nina doesn't reduce the average number of named storms in the WPAC. In fact, there isn't a significant difference in the number of named storms between El Nino and La Nina years. It is just that in El Nino years, the location of TC genesis usually shifts to the East, allowing typically more room and longer time for storms to grow. This makes El Nino years tend to have more intense storms and higher ACE.

Fun fact, the most active season ever recorded, 1964, occurred in a cool neutral year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From writing off this season, I now think this season now has a realistic chance of not only surpassing 200, but having the most November ACE since 1991.

Truly odd how an ENSO-neutral season is outperforming a powerful El Nino the year prior. Only Jelawat developed in November 2023, while 2024 has four tropical systems already.

I wouldn't say it is too surprising. Unless very extreme, La Nina doesn't reduce the average number of named storms in the WPAC. In fact, there isn't a significant difference in the number of named storms between El Nino and La Nina years. It is just that in El Nino years, the location of TC genesis usually shifts to the East, allowing typically more room and longer time for storms to grow. This makes El Nino years tend to have more intense storms and higher ACE.

Fun fact, the most active season ever recorded, 1964, occurred in a cool neutral year.

The -PDO plays a factor too. From my amateur eyes, it does appear that +/-ENSO has to do with quality, +/-PDO with quantity.

Last year was very inactive in terms of storm count, but storm quality (longevity, ACE per storm) was in line with a top-tier season.

This year seemed poised to be the opposite, but we are on pace to have four consecutive typhoons. In November.

The MDR season at the tropical Pacific seemed to dead all year. But the genesis of the last few storms, beginning with Yinxing, seems unusual for an otherwise cool ENSO year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1856054462064013554

[WaveBreaking]

The Philippines have had it rough this year. Assuming Usagi and Man-Yi stay on track, the Philippines will have had 4 typhoon strikes during November

[WaveBreaking]

The insanity continues

[Hayabusa]

Gotta say I'm impressed with TC genesis from EC-AIFS like it called for the formation of Trami and non-dissipation of Man-yi before the traditional global models (GFS, Euro) followed suit.

[Ed_2001]

According to wikipedia the two previous 5 year nadirs that I noticed were 1973 - 77 (989.8 units, or around 198 units a year) and 2007 - 11 (987.1/197.4 a year). Currently for 2020 - 24 we're at (922.7/184.5). This year would need to generate at least 64.4 more units of ACE (as of 18z 10/25) to avoid breaking a record.

According to Colorado State as of 06Z 11/15, we’ve generated 64.5 units since Kong-Rey. Now Man-yi is not yet at its peak and has already vastly overperformed initial expectations.

2020-24 will no longer be the least active 5 year period on record. Once again, quite a comeback. With how inactive everything looked as late as late October, I was almost sure WPAC would end the season on a weak note with only 140-150 ACE units.

[Ed_2001]

According to wikipedia the two previous 5 year nadirs that I noticed were 1973 - 77 (989.8 units, or around 198 units a year) and 2007 - 11 (987.1/197.4 a year). Currently for 2020 - 24 we're at (922.7/184.5). This year would need to generate at least 64.4 more units of ACE (as of 18z 10/25) to avoid breaking a record.

According to Colorado State as of 06Z 11/15, we’ve generated 64.5 units since Kong-Rey. Now Man-yi is not yet at its peak and has already vastly overperformed initial expectations.

2020-24 will no longer be the least active 5 year period on record. Once again, quite a comeback. With how inactive everything looked as late as late October, I was almost sure WPAC would end the season on a weak note with only 140-150 ACE units.

Also to note I think Colostate is underestimating the current yearly ACE (188.5) by a few units because it solely uses the initial report from JTWC w/o consideration of subsequent adjustments (for example it only had Yagi peaking at 130kts).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is how crazy the recent explosion in activity looks like. Sadly, too much for our country.

Guess the GFS runs weren't rubbish at all. And missed a major typhoon early on (Man-yi).



How couldn't a supposedly +ENSO year like 2023 pull this off? (This year is also a -PDO/-ENSO year)

[Ulf]

Pretty surprised that the 4 consecutive years streak of below average activity in WPAC will end in a La Niña year.