Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[AJC3]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

Using the "Div" tag on the text makes it easier to read, and is a must for copy/pasting tablular text.

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[Emmett_Brown]

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1852056157482787118

[zzzh]

EC likely overestimated the dry air dumped into the Caribbean by the TUTT, causing slower development.

[underthwx]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

Using the "Div" tag on the text makes it easier to read, and is a must for copy/pasting tablular text.

All you need to do is highlight the pasted text, and click on the Div box above the text workspace. This will put a "Div" (in brackets) at the beginning and a "/Div" at the end (also in brackets). Then, after you hit "Submit", the text will go into a formatted box. It also helps if you boldface the text.

If you need further assistance, just ask a mod or admin.

Thankyou very much!

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
...

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... I suspect on this run if our AOI had moved N or S of Haiti and Cuba it would have developed into a Cat 2+ hurricane early on before entering the GOM...

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
...

https://i.imgur.com/bDdOGfz.png

The mandarin area is like the blob that keeps changing shapes at regular intervals, the signal is there for development.

[Nimbus]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
...

https://i.imgur.com/bDdOGfz.png

The new morning convective burst off Nicaragua must have a 30% chance of being a keeper, or maybe even 40% now?

[tolakram]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

[Pasmorade]

Now a cherry

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[TomballEd]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

If the system spends any time N of 25N, it will encounter hostile shear and dry air. If it hits the US N of SW Florida it would be a rapidly weakening system. Even if became a significant system S of 25N.

[WeatherBoy2000]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

If the system spends any time N of 25N, it will encounter hostile shear and dry air. If it hits the US N of SW Florida it would be a rapidly weakening system. Even if became a significant system S of 25N.

Even under favorable conditions any TC would be weakening before landfall along the Gulf Coast due to insufficient ssts at this time of year.

[TomballEd]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

If the system spends any time N of 25N, it will encounter hostile shear and dry air. If it hits the US N of SW Florida it would be a rapidly weakening system. Even if became a significant system S of 25N.

Even under favorable conditions any TC would be weakening before landfall along the Gulf Coast due to insufficient ssts at this time of year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

Dry air can be overcome over warmer SSTs if the storm generates storms, the warmer, the faster it happens. That a named storm may form in November in the deep tropics (subtropical garbage near the Azores happens even in December and January) is amazing. Kate in 1985 was weakening as it approached the Florida Panhandle, but it had been a Cat 3 and was still a Cat 2 at landfall. A system still in the Gulf in 10 days would have lost most of the strength storms in the Caribbean or BoC can still achives.

[underthwx]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

Good morning Tolakram. Do you think that whatever develops, if anything, will pose a threat to the CONUS? Or possibly Central America? I have not read or seen any information that is definitive, other than 1 forecast discussion from NWS Tampa, mentioning an increase in deeper tropical moisture entering the area next week, in their long-term outlook. Being its November, this system seems to be a bit of a mystery. Can you share your thoughts on what you think will become of this forecast broad low? Does this system have the potential to be a November surprise? Thanks for any input!

[toad strangler]

Looks like if this tries to get anywhere close to the CONUS it will be ripped to shreds. If you believe shear forecasts out that far. Would fit with climo though.

[toad strangler]

I did NOT read the previous posters question before I made the above post. Purely coincidental as I had it primed to post and then got distracted. Not an attempt to answer a question not directed at me!

[tolakram]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

Good morning Tolakram. Do you think that whatever develops, if anything, will pose a threat to the CONUS? Or possibly Central America? I have not read or seen any information that is definitive, other than 1 forecast discussion from NWS Tampa, mentioning an increase in deeper tropical moisture entering the area next week, in their long-term outlook. Being its November, this system seems to be a bit of a mystery. Can you share your thoughts on what you think will become of this forecast broad low? Does this system have the potential to be a November surprise? Thanks for any input!

I have no idea, I'm only showing what the models show.

[mantis83]

Looks like if this tries to get anywhere close to the CONUS it will be ripped to shreds. If you believe shear forecasts out that far. Would fit with climo though.

keep the good news coming!

[underthwx]

ICON has backed way off and almost loses a 1000MB low as it wanders into the gulf.

Good morning Tolakram. Do you think that whatever develops, if anything, will pose a threat to the CONUS? Or possibly Central America? I have not read or seen any information that is definitive, other than 1 forecast discussion from NWS Tampa, mentioning an increase in deeper tropical moisture entering the area next week, in their long-term outlook. Being its November, this system seems to be a bit of a mystery. Can you share your thoughts on what you think will become of this forecast broad low? Does this system have the potential to be a November surprise? Thanks for any input!

I have no idea, I'm only showing what the models show.

Thankyou for your reply TK. This area of interest is proving to be a slow evolver for sure, it will be interesting to see what actually evolves from this, if anything. Until then, I am staying tuned to the NHC, and of course, right here on 2K. Thanks again, have a great weekend!