ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2024110118, , BEST, 0, 405N, 364W, 45, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 70, 170, 0, 1004, 260, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al962024

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962024.dat

[Sciencerocks]

Reminds me of the perfect storm 1991 or Grace https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... race_(2009) of a few years ago. I agree that it is probably a subtropical storm.

[MarioProtVI]

This will likely be Patty by tonight, since it looks like it’s taking the fast route. Probably 70/70 at 8pm with a STWO to 100/100 at 10, and then SS Patty at 11. Like how Isaac went before it was designated. Although IMO, it’s likely already a SS and will be brought forward in TCR.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think a STWO is coming soon.

[Sciencerocks]

55 knt in my opinion

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a subtropical or tropical storm to me, as it doesn't appear to be embeeded in any frontal zone. Has there been a recent ASCAT pass? I'd visually assess it at 50 kt, given that the cooler water may not be bringing the winds down as efficiently.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm sure the NHC will classify this as a (S)TS at some point. The only question here is if they will push back the TCG in 6 - 18 hours in the TCR.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Azores going to be clobbered by this

[cycloneye]

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms near the center of a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development during the next day or two, and the
system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves
generally east-southeastward during the next few days. Interest in
the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[TheAustinMan]

I'm enjoying watching 96L develop within an upper-level trough, which acts a bit like an incubating cocoon that both provides an area of low wind shear as well as lowered temperatures aloft, which increases convective instability (certainly a must have given the 19-21C sea surface temperatures in this area!). You can clearly see that area of safe harbor --- from the storm's perspective, at least --- in the animation below. Not too surprisingly, the global models did well in projecting 96L's current appearance, with somewhat shallow (by tropical standards) but organized convection surrounding an eye. While 96L is well-placed in the middle of the upper-level trough, models suggest that the upper-level trough will start to slide past 96L tomorrow afternoon, resulting in conditions much less favorable for development. I think as it stands that this is sufficiently organized to be classified as a subtropical cyclone with a name. If the NHC is going to upgrade operationally, it will probably have to be within the next 18 hours as conditions deteriorate afterwards and the storm is likely to weaken from that point on.

Source: Tropical Tidbits

[Sciencerocks]

This is now a borderline hurricane. Fully Tropical!

Convection increasing and wrapping around the eye!!!

[Fancy1002]

How is this not at least a tropical storm?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1852549525765783923

[zhukm29]

Pretty much Rebekah 2.0, but there isn't much time for designation if it is to be done operationally. I personally think it could have been classified a while ago.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1852553090743824674

[Nuno]

Is this going to be another Marco situation?

[chaser1]

I typically hate sub tropical storms.
I detest storms being named when the strongest winds are 200 or more miles away from the center.
I consider it ridiculous when a GOM or East CONUS low is named a TS when it looks like a broad gale lacking much (or any) associated MLC convection.

On the other hand, I'm not one to refute the obvious. Unless there's some explanation that 96L is simply the world's most impressive dust devil, then I see no way to avoid classifying it at least as a minimal subtropical storm.

Perhaps it's purely a matter of wanting to preserve a really solid name such as "Patty" for a potentially more formidable tropical cyclone that may emerge from the Caribbean soon

[Jr0d]

The current satellite in my amateur opinion looks like a aub tropical storm.

We have seen storms like this go both ways ..not sure what the official criteria is to distinguish a sub tropical vs something like a cut off low.

It is a hazard to ships no doubt....it would not take much more organization for this to have a satellite presentation of a hurricane as their already is an eye like feature.

I doubt this has sustained winds over 50.kts currently, but it would be interesting to see what ASCAT shows.

[Sciencerocks]

I typically hate sub tropical storms.
I detest storms being named when the strongest winds are 200 or more miles away from the center.
I consider it ridiculous when a GOM or East CONUS low is named a TS when it looks like a broad gale lacking much (or any) associated MLC convection.

On the other hand, I'm not one to refute the obvious. Unless there's some explanation that 96L is simply the world's most impressive dust devil, then I see no way to avoid classifying it at least as a minimal subtropical storm.

Perhaps it's purely a matter of wanting to preserve a really solid name such as "Patty" for a potentially more formidable tropical cyclone that may emerge from the Caribbean soon

1. The max winds are probably within the obvious eyewall.
2. There is nothing low end about this system or anything similar to those broad gale sheared pieces of early june crap.
3. This isn't subtropical. You don't get well defined eyes and eyewalls with subtropical storms.

The warm core is very likely quite thick from surface through the atmosphere in such systems. Anything besides subtropical.