ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2024110212, , BEST, 0, 113N, 807W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, SPAWNINVEST, al782024 to al972024

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972024.dat

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

And here we go again Florida.

[Hurricane2022]

Well... there you go again, 2024.
I'm thinking this could become a major hurricane, but nothing is certain so far. Any place between Haiti and Louisiana should be starting preparations now.

[underthwx]

From the 3:12 am NWS Tallahassee forecast discussion.

The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC calls for an 80
percent chance of tropical cyclone development over the central or
western Caribbean by early next week while the system moves
generally northward to northwestward. Beyond that, model consensus
points to this system entering the southeast Gulf and then moving
westward near the northern Yucatan or across the southern Gulf.
This makes sense given the anchoring mid-level high that has
stubbornly held in place over the Southeast U.S. recently.
However, there is a minority of model solutions that instead bring
this system northward into the northeast Gulf during the second
half of next week. Obviously, this will need to be watched. At
least the northern Gulf would be a more hostile environment for
any tropical cyclones given increasing wind shear with gains in
latitude, and the more marginal sea-surface temperatures further
north this late in the season.

So the official deterministic forecast is based largely on the
scenario of a westward-moving cyclone with no core impacts on our
service area. Even so, we would look for hazardous marine
conditions mid-late next week. A turn of our low-mid level flow
out of the southeast would certainly bring a tropical maritime air
mass into our region, with origins north of the Greater Antilles.
So this mornings new forecast further increases rain chances from
late Tuesday onward next week.

[cycloneye]

[wzrgirl1]

https://i.imgur.com/iwlgn2h.gif

Looks to be a fairly large circulation.

[Jr0d]

Well... there you go again, 2024.
I'm thinking this could become a major hurricane, but nothing is certain so far. Any place between Haiti and Louisiana should be starting preparations now.

Doubtful but not impossible.

I am thinking a mid range tropical storm that will struggle with shear.

Like every storm, timing is everything as their might be a window where of a favorable environment later in the week. Currently the forecast shows this moving fast enough to miss that window as it approaches the Florida Keys...

[Jr0d]

This morning was the 1st time the NWS Key West mentioned it in their hazardous weather outlook.

A broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to develop into a tropical depression early next week as
it moves northwest to north through the central and western
Caribbean Sea. While uncertainty regarding the potential track and
intensity of this low remains high, there is some potential for
higher rain chances, gusty winds, locally flooding rainfall, and
some oceanside saltwater flooding and coastal oceanside wave
overwash Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Well... there you go again, 2024.
I'm thinking this could become a major hurricane, but nothing is certain so far. Any place between Haiti and Louisiana should be starting preparations now.

There's little if any model/ensemble support for a major hurricane atm. Even the most bullish model, the gfs, isn't showing a major hurricane.

[TomballEd]

If it stays S of 25N for a few days once it consolidates a core, it should become a hurricane. Cool water, dry air and shear would protect all of CONUS except maybe SW Florida, in my non-professional opinion.


I'm kind of hoping it does head towards the BoC and some residual moisture gets pulled up this way. Finally having a brief rainy spell after over a month with no rain in Houston, and dry cool phase ENSO winter is likely.

[xironman]

https://i.imgur.com/iwlgn2h.gif

The eddy off of Costa Rica looks like it is taking over, the GFS looks like it has a good handle on it for the next 48 hrs.

[xironman]

If it stays S of 25N for a few days once it consolidates a core, it should become a hurricane. Cool water, dry air and shear would protect all of CONUS except maybe SW Florida, in my non-professional opinion.


I'm kind of hoping it does head towards the BoC and some residual moisture gets pulled up this way. Finally having a brief rainy spell after over a month with no rain in Houston, and dry cool phase ENSO winter is likely.

Much of this depends on the upper level environment 72 hrs from now. The big thing is shear over the gulf at that time.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
generally northward to northwestward over the central and western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[3090]

And here we go again Florida.

There is absolutely NOTHING yet to be concerned about this system going to florida. Pump the brakes.

[Kingarabian]

If this intensifies more than anticipated, the northern GOM shear could become less of a problem.

[Travorum]

Here's the recon TCPOD for tomorrow. Looks like there will be three flights tomorrow, the first of which will be a low level invest mission on station from 1730z (12:30pm EST, daylight savings ends tomorrow!) and six-hourly fixes beginning after that assuming there is some development. All Air Force flights as of now, so no TDR data .

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT SAT 02 NOVEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-155 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN - AL97)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 03/1330Z C. 04/0530Z
D. 13.8N 76.3W D. 15.2N 75.8W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2030Z E. 04/0500Z TO 05/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST (CORR) G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
A. 04/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 04/1130Z
D. 16.4N 76.1W
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1852714470998474799




Regardless of the Gulf, conditions look favorable in the Caribbean.

[ObsessedMiami]

I thought the scuttlebutt from a few days ago was strong ridging would keep this from moving to the Gulf Coast but now I see the first models have it headed that way. What changed?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024110218, , BEST, 0, 117N, 799W, 20, 1007, DB

[CFLHurricane]

I thought the scuttlebutt from a few days ago was strong ridging would keep this from moving to the Gulf Coast but now I see the first models have it headed that way. What changed?

Timing with the ridge moving east.