ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[underthwx]

This is a models comment, looking at current intensity models, it shows 97L as a higher end tropical storm? Please correct me if I am wrong.

[ronjon]

Let's see what the hurricane models do with 97L. Nearly all the global models keep the system as a tropical storm or CAT1.

[Jr0d]

Let's see what the hurricane models do with 97L. Nearly all the global models keep the system as a tropical storm or CAT1.

I expect the first couple of hurricane model runs to struggle, especially with it being so disorganized currently, hopefully Inam wrong.

With a potential impact to the Florida Keys as little as 5 days away, we need all the data we can get as there is not much time to prepare.

It is a good sign that none of the operational models are showing a doom storm anymore, and the ensembles are not showing super low pressures any more... the lowest I think they show are around 990mb, with most not falling under 1000mb.

[Blown Away]

GFS Trend

[underthwx]

Let's see what the hurricane models do with 97L. Nearly all the global models keep the system as a tropical storm or CAT1.

I expect the first couple of hurricane model runs to struggle, especially with it being so disorganized currently, hopefully Inam wrong.

With a potential impact to the Florida Keys as little as 5 days away, we need all the data we can get as there is not much time to prepare.

It is a good sign that none of the operational models are showing a doom storm anymore, and the ensembles are not showing super low pressures any more... the lowest I think they show are around 990mb, with most not falling under 1000mb.

Sounds about right, given the fact that 97L will encounter lower SSTs, and shear over the gulf, should it track into that area, and I think the models are responding to that.

[Stormlover70]

Any storm here is bad!

[TallyTracker]

https://i.postimg.cc/fRQTJ7XZ/gfs-mslp- ... -trend.gif

GFS Trend

The GFS looks fairly consistent with the location of 97L in a few days. What looks very uncertain is the location of the system to the east that forms near Puerto Rico and the norther Leeward Islands. The progression of that system and it’s impact or lack thereof on 97L’s track will be interesting.

[gatorcane]

And there is the more east solution with NE turn in the EGOM showing up in the EC-AIFS as one would expect for this time of year. Huge shift east by the EC-AIFS:

[sasha_B]

The first HAFS-A goes a bit overboard with this one. The other three hurricane models are more reasonable, with HMON showing a system that never reaches hurricane strength, and HWRF & HAFS-B showing a Category 1-2 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/Ko3FJf6.png

https://i.imgur.com/n1gKnEX.png

I will be watching that one model that sends 97L to Cat 4. November has had infamous Majors before (Eta and Iota come to mind).

Not to say that Cat 4 is going to happen because it might not.

[Jr0d]

The hurricane models came in much stronger than I expected. My thoughts they would show a struggling low that was battling shear, instead most are showing a hurricane.

Obviously we need more data for better model solutions, which wont happen until the get the HH data tomorrow...

[Stormlover70]

The hurricane models came in much stronger than I expected. My thoughts they would show a struggling low that was battling shear, instead most are showing a hurricane.

Obviously we need more data for better model solutions, which wont happen until the get the HH data tomorrow...

Unfortunately it's the year of surprises.......

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane models are running now. HWRF spins up a 974mb cane into the big bend.

[eastcoastFL]

06z HWRF running now. Has 990mb hurricane at 84 hours at roughly 83.5w 24.7n

06z HMON is further west in the middle of the gulf 982mb and very right side heavy

[xironman]

HAFS-A continues to loose its mind

[ThunderForce]

Assuming it landfalls at the intensity that the HAFS-A is showing or stronger, that would be unprecedented for November. No major hurricane has hit the United States in November in recorded history to my knowledge.

[Steve]

Joes Saturday summary looked at the MJO which 8/1 doesn’t predict landfalls on the NE Gulf but the verifications do show those to be strong phases across NC/NE FL and S GA. I’m curious to see if it can stay together or if it’s just going to die out over the water midweek as it heads toward the west Gulf as many global models have been indicating. If it takes an eastern/landfall scenario, I think it would be east of Pensacola.

[eastcoastFL]

Joes Saturday summary looked at the MJO which 8/1 doesn’t predict landfalls on the NE Gulf but the verifications do show those to be strong phases across NC/NE FL and S GA. I’m curious to see if it can stay together or if it’s just going to die out over the water midweek as it heads toward the west Gulf as many global models have been indicating. If it takes an eastern/landfall scenario, I think it would be east of Pensacola.

Looks like landfall will be heavily dependent on the timing of the next front moving across CONUS. Most of the models show it getting yanked NE eventually

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HAFS-A and HAFS-B goes absolutely nuclear in the Caribbean. Category 4 in 72 hours.