Texas Fall 2024

[wxman22]

Getting a little more concerned about flooding over here. Models are showing multiple MCS moving through the same areas back to back over the weekend and early next week.

[bubba hotep]

[Edwards Limestone]

Canyon Lake is toast. Relatively small drainage basin + far below average rainfall for 4-5 years.

This upcoming La Nina is going to crush our area lakes and the Edwards aquifer even more. I'm seeing lots of live oaks succumbing to the long term drought this fall. Reports of 40 year wells running dry. Once severe drought feedback kicks in, next summer is going to be 2011-style, likely with massive wildfires as well. Not good.

These little drizzly/spotty events like what's forecast for the next week aren't gonna even make a dent down here. It'll be back to mid-80s and dry/sunny within a few days anyway. Very depressing.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/ ... 877529.php

[vbhoutex]

We aren't as bad here in SE Texas, but the same holds true as far as the future if we don't start getting rain. We had 0.20" at my house yesterday with well over an inch predicted and a supposed washout for Halloween. I told my wife it didn't surprise me at all compared to the forecasts since it is so obvious that most of the OLM hug the models, which don't take into account the severe drought feedback, which we see too often in TX. Hoping for rain for all of us as it is sorely needed. Actually most of the Northern Gulf Coast is in severe drought except for Florida.

[Iceresistance]

Getting a little more concerned about flooding over here. Models are showing multiple MCS moving through the same areas back to back over the weekend and early next week.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mgWHHfcH/IMG-0058.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gt84Brv6/IMG-0059.png [/url]

I am inside the Moderate Risk of flooding and watching this closely, I do have concern with CMC and RGEM since consistently above 10 inches for me in 5-6 days

[Brent]

Getting a little more concerned about flooding over here. Models are showing multiple MCS moving through the same areas back to back over the weekend and early next week.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mgWHHfcH/IMG-0058.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gt84Brv6/IMG-0059.png [/url]

Yeah some of these model runs are a little hard to believe but it wouldn't be the first time I've seen a drought end in flood since I moved to the Plains I guess. The consistency in showing those extreme totals is getting more alarming for sure

Flood watches going up

[TropicalTundra]

Canyon Lake is toast. Relatively small drainage basin + far below average rainfall for 4-5 years.

This upcoming La Nina is going to crush our area lakes and the Edwards aquifer even more. I'm seeing lots of live oaks succumbing to the long term drought this fall. Reports of 40 year wells running dry. Once severe drought feedback kicks in, next summer is going to be 2011-style, likely with massive wildfires as well. Not good.

These little drizzly/spotty events like what's forecast for the next week aren't gonna even make a dent down here. It'll be back to mid-80s and dry/sunny within a few days anyway. Very depressing.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/ ... 877529.php

I’m kinda shocked how the Belton and Stillhouse lakes aren’t struggling near as much as the lakes down there. We were at our record lowest level last October, and I guess due to the consistent storms during early Summer we’ve recovered to pretty much 100% full / almost overflowing even in moderate drought.

The only heat I can really recall from this “summer” was probably early September which didn’t even last for too long; 2023 summer was almost unbearable and combined with a complete absence of cloudy days or occasional showers left Belton Lake at 60% level, essentially our lowest probably since 2011.

It has to be a complete smack in the face though especially since you guys are only about 2 hours away, and hopefully the weather gods take pity and something changes. These last few years have been horrible for all of us and the La Niña this year will absolutely not help.

[Ntxw]

Canyon Lake is toast. Relatively small drainage basin + far below average rainfall for 4-5 years.

This upcoming La Nina is going to crush our area lakes and the Edwards aquifer even more. I'm seeing lots of live oaks succumbing to the long term drought this fall. Reports of 40 year wells running dry. Once severe drought feedback kicks in, next summer is going to be 2011-style, likely with massive wildfires as well. Not good.

These little drizzly/spotty events like what's forecast for the next week aren't gonna even make a dent down here. It'll be back to mid-80s and dry/sunny within a few days anyway. Very depressing.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/ ... 877529.php

I’m kinda shocked how the Belton and Stillhouse lakes aren’t struggling near as much as the lakes down there. We were at our record lowest level last October, and I guess due to the consistent storms during early Summer we’ve recovered to pretty much 100% full / almost overflowing even in moderate drought.

The only heat I can really recall from this “summer” was probably early September which didn’t even last for too long; 2023 summer was almost unbearable and combined with a complete absence of cloudy days or occasional showers left Belton Lake at 60% level, essentially our lowest probably since 2011.

It has to be a complete smack in the face though especially since you guys are only about 2 hours away, and hopefully the weather gods take pity and something changes. These last few years have been horrible for all of us and the La Niña this year will absolutely not help.

The eastern and northern part of the state had a very wet Spring. DFW had 8th wettest spring on record. For the year we are about normal. Summer and Fall has been dry, feast or famine.

Different story in central and south Texas where it has been consistently below normal much longer.

[Stratton23]

unsetted weather and at times cooler weather look to continue in the extended period, dont see any cold any time soon, however their are some hints in the ensembles/ teleconnection guidance in the longer range (2nd week of november and beyond) that potentially could and i emphasize *COULD* leas to colder weather in the western and central US

[Ntxw]

Ensembles and OP guidance finally shows some cold air building into the Arctic medium long range. Does not mean it will make it's way to us but at least it is a start.

[wxman22]

[Gotwood]

https://i.ibb.co/H7XMnL8/image542.png

Really wish these amounts were pushed further into Texas.

[wxman22]

https://i.ibb.co/H7XMnL8/image542.png

Really wish these amounts were pushed further into Texas.

Understandable.One good thing is that it looks like more rain is on the way for Texas after this event ends. Models show a strong cutoff low diving south later next week.

[Stratton23]

Besides another cut off low, the potential development in the western caribbean could have a down stream effect on shifting the upper air pattern over NA in the extended range as well

[Brent]

TV met finally mentioned historic flooding possible here

I just hope we have a setup like this in the winter

And hopefully the end of the week will more favor Texas

[ElectricStorm]

PDS warning and potentially strong tornado in eastern OKC metro with more supercells behind it. Looks like I'm gonna be up for a while

[ElectricStorm]

Massive CC drop near Comanche my goodness. NWS Norman taking forever to issue warnings tonight. Don't usually see this from them

[ElectricStorm]

Warnings all over the place now just had one in Norman

[Brent]

Nothing like tornado sirens

[Patriot12]

The forecast for cooler temperatures later this week has fizzled out. Rinse and repeat.