ATL: RAFAEL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the island of Jamaica.




Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
disturbance over the south-central Caribbean Sea and their data
indicates that the system has developed a closed center. However,
deep convection is not quite organized enough to designate the
system a tropical depression at this time. Given the potential for
development and impacts to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, advisories are being issued on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eighteen.

The initial motion is northeastward at 6 kt, but this is uncertain
given that the system has only recently closed off. A turn to the
north and then northwest is expected over the next couple of days as
a mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern Atlantic and the
eastern Caribbean. This motion should take the disturbance near
Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are in relatively good
agreement during that time period, and the official track forecast
lies near the various consensus models. Once the system reaches the
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, the model solutions
diverge due to differences in the predicted steering patterns and
vertical depth of the system by that time. Therefore, the NHC track
forecast during that time period is of notably lower confidence.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening
during the next few days, and it seems likely that the system will
become a tropical storm before it reaches Jamaica and a hurricane
before it reaches Cuba. However, later in the week, southwesterly
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should end the
strengthening process and likely induce some weakening once the
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane regional models are
very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear
overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is
closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near
the IVCN consensus aid.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a
hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts
from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of Cuba.

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the
Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the
long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late
portions of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

The convective structure of the system in the south-central
Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized this evening.
Current shower and thunderstorm activity is clustered in two regions
to the south and northeast of the estimated center. The center
itself remains quite broad and lacks distinct banding features, as
seen on an earlier GMI microwave pass at 2219 UTC. Given the lack of
improvement from this afternoon, the system remains a Potential
Tropical Cyclone (PTC), with an initial intensity at 30 kt. An Air
Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is in route to sample the system
tonight, and we should soon also receive an ASCAT-B scatterometer
pass to provide more information on its structure and intensity.

My best guess is that the system continues to move slowly northward
this evening, with a current motion a fairly uncertain 360/5 kt.
Over the next couple of days, a large mid-level ridge currently
parked north of the system off the southeastern U.S. coast should
shift a little eastward and build farther southeastward towards
Hispaniola. The result of this synoptic pattern should cause PTC18
to turn northwestward and gradually accelerate as it moves into the
northwestern Caribbean. This motion should bring the system near
Jamaica by Monday evening and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.
This northwestward track should continue, likely bringing the system
over Cuba and ultimately into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 72
h. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge, with
notable ECMWF ensemble cross-track spread in the
southwest-to-northeast direction over the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this track spread is related to how fast a mid-latitude cutoff low
over the four corners region of the U.S. ejects out into the central
Plains. This feature will play a role in how much the mid-level
ridging ahead of the system becomes eroded when it emerges into the
Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is a little slower compared to
the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is also a little bit
slower this advisory, while nudged just a hair to the west of the
prior forecast at the end of period. However, forecast confidence on
the track in the 96-h and 120-h time-frame is lower than usual.

The intensity forecast is also uncertain, because how much the
system is able to intensify will be determined by its evolving
structure over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions in
the northwestern Caribbean are forecast to be quite favorable, with
SHIPS guidance indicating vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or
lower while traversing very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures
for the next 48-60 h. Such an environment could favor rapid
intensification, as some of the regional-hurricane model guidance
aids were suggesting earlier today. However, this evolution depends
on when or if the system is able to develop an inner-core, and the
current poor structure argues against substantial development in the
short-term. Assuming the system does ultimately develop a better
aligned vortex, more significant intensification is forecast in the
24-60 h time frame, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows the
system becoming a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. After
PTC18 crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast environment
becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly shear and
decreasing sea-surface temperatures, though this environment is
quite dependent on the forecast track. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is quite similar to the prior one, splitting the difference
between the more aggressive hurricane-regional models, and more
subdued global model and statistical-dynamical aids.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of Cuba.

2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas on Monday.

3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late
portions of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized
with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm
activity. However, convective banding features are not yet well
defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did
not show a distinct circulation center. Surface observations and
scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western
portion of the disturbance. Since the circulation has yet to
become well defined, the system is still being designated as a
potential tropical cyclone at this time. The current intensity
estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the
aircraft observations. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to
investigate the system later this morning.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is
rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6
kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly,
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical
cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well
known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual
uncertainty in the track forecast.

As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the
intensity prediction. For the next 48 hours or so, the system
will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low
vertical wind shear. Therefore strengthening is likely, but the
amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a
well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation
develops. If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with
great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the
system reaches Western Cuba. Later, the environment over the Gulf
of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong
southwesterly shear and drier air. The official intensity
forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical
guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and
pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of western Cuba.

2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas later today.

3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica
and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall would then
spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United
States mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch
for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, and Las Tunas.


Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and
surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the
south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and
is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum
flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial
wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing
near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and
east sides of the circulation.

The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of low confidence.

The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm
SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well
organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady
strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf,
a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air,
and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands on
Tuesday and are possible in portions of Cuba early Wednesday, where
Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect. There is a risk of
dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the
Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Jamaica this evening.

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these
areas later today.

3. The system is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico later this
week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast
track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor
updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and portions of Cuba through
mid-week. Flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the
Southeast United States mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA
LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 76.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Deep convection continues to burst near the center of the system,
with improving overall structure and curved banding depicted in
recent satellite images. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data has
found flight level winds around 40-45 kt with higher SFMR values.
The Hurricane Hunters also indicated that an eyewall appears to be
developing. Based on the aircraft data, the intensity is being
increased to 40 kt. The system is now designated as Tropical Storm
Rafael, and is the seventeenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane
season.

The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of lower confidence.

Given the improving overall structure with an inner core developing,
combined with favorable environmental factors of low wind shear,
high moisture, and warm SSTs all support intensification. Models all
support steady to rapid intensification, and SHIPS RI probabilities
indicate a near 40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24
hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast and peak intensity has been
increased and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope
through the middle part of the forecast period. Based on the
SHIPS RI guidance, future upward intensity adjustments during the
first 48 h may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. In a
few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening, and
the NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening where damaging hurricane-force
winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday.

2. Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches
western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday where there is an
increasing risk of a dangerous storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

5. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where
flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid
to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RAFAEL APPROACHING JAMAICA WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RECON FINDS RAFAEL STEADY STATE AS IT NEARS JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES



Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

After a period of intensification this afternoon, Rafael has taken a
brief pause on further development. Tonight's Air Force Reserve
Aircraft sampled the tropical storm from 2330-0130 UTC, finding the
structure still somewhat broad with a minimum central pressure of
996 mb from the last fix, only slightly lower than this afternoon.
Earlier AMSR2 and GMI microwave imagery did show the outer core
structure of Rafael is gradually organizing, with plenty of curved
convective bands on the 37-GHz channel along the the eastern flank,
though some dry air appears to be undercutting the cirrus outflow
to the west and preventing organized convection from fully wrapping
around the center. Aircraft flight-level winds at 850 mb were not
all that impressive (40 kt peak), though peak SFMR values in the
same realm still support a maximum intensity of about 40 kt for
this advisory. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is in route
to sample the storm again later tonight.

Rafael appears to be turning more northwestward with a faster
forward motion, estimated tonight at 335/10 kt. The track forecast
for the next 48 h is fairly straightforward, as mid-level ridging
builds in to the northeast of Rafael, which should maintain steering
that should continue a northwestward track, bringing the tropical
storm on its closest approach to Jamaica Tuesday morning, passing
through the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and nearing the Caribbean
coast of western Cuba on Wednesday. After Rafael crosses Cuba and
moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the track forecast remains a
challenge. The spread in ensemble track solutions is notable, and
appears not just related to the vertical depth of Rafael, but also
the synoptic pattern over the United States. A large deep-layer
cutoff low is expected to dig into the four corners region of the
U.S., and how progressive this feature is moving into the central
U.S. will likely determine how much ridging remains over the Gulf of
Mexico in 4-5 days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
prior track for the first 36 h, but is a shade farther right beyond
that time, slightly favoring the GFS and Canadian model solutions
over the UKMET and ECMWF tracks. However, the 200-850 mb steering
flow depicted in the Gulf of Mexico also shows the possibility of a
bifurcation point near 25N 86W in 3 days, and where Rafael ends up
at the time could determine if it stays in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or moves much further westward into the central or western
Gulf. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast in 5
days.

The inner core of Raphael still appears to be in the formative stage
tonight, as convection has yet to become axis-symmetrical around the
low-level circulation, which lacks a tighter wind field. Thus, the
rate of intensification over the next day or so should be slower
than in the final 24 h before Raphael reaches Cuba. Environmental
conditions remain very favorable in the northwestern Caribbean, and
SHIPS rapid intensification guidance still indicates that the
cyclone has a 40-50 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in the next
36 h. The NHC intensity forecast will show 40 kt of intensification
over the next 36 h, with some additional intensification possible
before Raphael moves over Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, westerly
shear increases to 15-25 kt, which could halt intensification and
ultimately lead to weakening as it imports very dry air into Raphael
by the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the prior advisory, and remains on the high side of the overall
intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are
also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where
flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid
to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Rafael is becoming better organized,
with convective banding features becoming more prominent,
especially over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Central
convection is still a bit limited at this time, with a rather small
Central Dense Overcast. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter
mission indicated falling central pressure, with maximum winds
approaching 50 kt. The current intensity is set at that value,
which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak estimates, based on
the increasing organization of the system. Another Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael a little later
this morning which should provide a good estimate on the strength of
the tropical cyclone.

Rafael is moving northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of
about 325/11 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue this general
motion for the next couple of days, crossing western Cuba and
moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is
in fairly good agreement for the first 48 hours of the period.
Thereafter, the model tracks diverge with an increasing spread
between the GFS and ECMWF solutions with time. The ECMWF
simulation shows a much stronger mid-level ridge over the
southeastern U.S., resulting in Rafael moving into the western Gulf
in the latter part of the period. In contrast, the GFS model
indicates that ridge will break down in 3-4 days, allowing the
system to turn northward. The official forecast lies roughly
between these two possibilities and is fairly close to the model
consensus. This is just slightly west of the previous NHC track.
Given the model spread, there is a less confidence than usual in the
4-5 day forecast.

The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic
environment that is quite conducive for strengthening, with high
oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear, and high low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity. The various Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices from our model guidance show a significant chance of RI
during the next day or so, so the shorter-term official intensity
forecast might be a bit conservative. After Rafael moves into the
Gulf of Mexico, however, drier air and stronger vertical wind shear
should halt the strengthening process. The official intensity
forecast is on the high side of the guidance for the 3-5 day
forecast, and is similar to the previous NHC prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are
also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early
this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western portions of
Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher
terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into
Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to
late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for
the Dry Tortugas.




Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased near the
center of Rafael during the past several hours. However, reports
from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that
this has not yet translated into strengthening, possibly due to
what looks like a tongue of dry air seen entraining into the
center in microwave imagery. The aircraft reported maximum winds
of 54 kt at 850 mb with a minimum central pressure near 994 mb.
Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt.
One note is the radius of maximum winds has decreased to about 20
n mi, suggesting that Rafael is trying to develop a better-defined
inner core despite the apparent dry air.

The initial motion is still northwestward at 320/11 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next couple of days, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. After that
time, there is a significant spread in the track guidance. While all
of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the
central and northern Gulf, the GFS takes longer to show this
happening than the ECMWF/UKMET. In addition, the GFS shows a weaker
ridge north of the system, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a stronger
ridge. The result is that the GFS shows a northward motion with
landfall on the northern Gulf coast, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a
westerly motion across the central Gulf of Mexico. Until there is a
clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the
forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow motion over
the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during
the next 24-36 h if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core.
Based on the expectation that the core will form, the system is
forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 h and continue to
strengthen until it reaches Cuba. Once the center is north of 25N
in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to encounter increasing
vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface
temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually
shearing apart vertically. The new intensity forecast remains on
the high side of the intensity guidance and is similar to the
previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves
are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower
and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Cayman, along with southern and western portions of
Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher
terrain in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW WEST OF THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an
inner wind core during the past several hours. The radar data shows
the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported
850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the
center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has
fallen to near 989 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have been revised some based
on the aircraft data.

The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72
h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn
more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the
northern Gulf coast. After 72 h, there remains some significant
spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast
Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the
forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast. The GFS
weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps
a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion. The
deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario,
but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a
westward motion. As mentioned with the previous forecast, until
there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more
likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow
turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or
so. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during
the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with
additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba. While the peak
intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance,
there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently
forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico,
the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear,
dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which
should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart
vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just
above the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 79.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that
Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also
indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb
(29.11 inches).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES



Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

We have been fortunate to receive an abundance of in-situ data from
both an Air Force Reserve C-130 and a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft tonight. Their data indicated that Rafael had become a
hurricane just after 00 UTC with peak 750 mb flight level winds of
79 kt from the NOAA-P3 and 700 mb winds of 73 kt from the Air Force
C-130. On satellite imagery Rafael's structure continues to improve
with very cold deep convection near the center rotating around the
center. Radar reflectivity out of Grand Cayman Island also shows the
inner core continues to improve with a 10-15 n mi diameter eyewall,
though is still occasionally open on the southwest side. The initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, based on NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar
velocities up to 85 kt in the NE eyewall boundary layer, which was
matched by an Air Force Recon dropsonde also launched in the NE
eyewall at 0025 UTC that had a 500 m layer average wind of 85 kt.

Rafael continues to move northwestward at 320/11 kt. A prominent
low- to mid-level ridge centered offshore of the Southeastern U.S.
should continue to steer the hurricane northwestward for the next
day or so. This track will lead to Rafael moving through the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours and then across the western portion
of Cuba during the afternoon on Wednesday. Thereafter, Rafael will
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is becoming
increasingly likely that the aforementioned ridging will begin to
build to the north of Rafael, leading to the hurricane turning more
west-northwestward and slowing down as it moves into the central
Gulf of Mexico. There have been notable changes in the global model
guidance today, with the GFS track shifting significantly to the
south and west over the past four cycles, closer to the ECMWF track.
This evolution is likely partially related to changes in the
upstream synoptic flow pattern, now showing a cutoff low digging
into the four corners region rather than being more progressive
moving eastward in the Great Plains. Such an evolution will allow a
narrow ridge to become oriented directly over Rafael, substantially
slowing its forward motion. Because it is becoming more evident the
ECMWF synoptic flow pattern may end up being correct, the NHC track
has been shifted leftward, especially beyond 48 h, compared to the
previous forecast track. At the very end of the forecast, Rafael
will likely become a shallow cyclone, drifting slowly northward in
the low-level flow.

Environmental conditions are very favorable for continued
intensification, and given that Rafael now possesses a tight inner
core and eyewall, rapid intensification seems likely. Strangely, the
HAFS models did not appear to initialize correctly at 18 UTC, and
were a good 5-10 mb too weak at 00 UTC tonight. Despite this, HAFS-B
raw model output shows Rafael becoming a category 2 hurricane before
moving over Cuba, and the NHC intensity forecast will now show
Rafael becoming a Category 2 hurricane in 12 h. It is also not
impossible Rafael becomes a major hurricane before impacting Cuba,
with at least one hurricane-regional model showing this possibility
this cycle (HMON). Rafael should briefly weaken over Cuba. After the
hurricane emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is not as
favorable as the northwestern Caribbean, but is also not especially
unfavorable from 24-48 h as it will remain over 27-28 C waters, and
only 10-15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, mid-level shear
begins to substantially increase after that time, and sea-surface
temperatures from wave drifters just north of Rafael's forecast
track are only 26-27 C. This one two negative punch will likely
begin to result in weakening, which should become more rapid towards
the end of the forecast period as very dry air over the western Gulf
of Mexico is likely to be ingested into the storm. The NHC intensity
forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance in the first 12 h, but
then falls closer to the HCCA consensus aid between 24-48 h, before
dropping into the middle of the intensity guidance envelope by the
end of the forecast. Rafael might be close to becoming post-tropical
as global model guidance suggests it may lose most of its remaining
convection in about 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.7N 80.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE N CUBA COAST
36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two,
Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.

Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES



Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this
morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery.
Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall
structure. Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak
flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning. Dropsonde data
indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last
pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued
improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler
radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon.

Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening
while it approaches western Cuba. The hurricane will be traversing
warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear
conditions. The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle
could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears
very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it
makes landfall in western Cuba later today. Some weakening is
forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to
remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result
in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could
result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal
uncertainty regarding Rafael's intensity later in the forecast
period.

The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael should
continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high
pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The ridge is
forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn
more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance
is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is
increasing spread after that time. Much of the guidance now
suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system
through much of the forecast period. This has resulted in a
southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track
forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours. The
new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional
southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches
western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning is
in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge,
damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.

3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.

4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast. Residents in this area
should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown