ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

GPS is forecasting TD18 entraining a large amount of high TPW and high CAPE air once its north of Cuba.
Source is the West Carib and EPAC.

[cycloneye]

TD.

AL, 18, 2024110412, , BEST, 0, 148N, 767W, 30, 1003, TD

[Jr0d]

I think it'll be steadily weakening as it crosses the southern Gulf Thursday, becoming a remnant low late Friday or early Saturday offshore. Remnants moving up the front into SE LA on Saturday. Not much rain with it. More rain with the front than with its remnants. NHC will be reducing that 55kt wind they have at day 5. I have it at 30 kts then.

How close do you think it will get to Key West, if you dont mind?

[GCANE]

Latest GFS has TD18 under the ARWB for most of its track in the N GoM.
It only comes under a minimal 250mb jet from the trof just before landfall around NOLA

[GCANE]

Currently under an anticyclone with a strong LL vort

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[xironman]

TD.

AL, 18, 2024110412, , BEST, 0, 148N, 767W, 30, 1003, TD

Looking at the recon data, it's hard to see where we don't get Rafael at 10 am.

[cycloneye]

TD.

AL, 18, 2024110412, , BEST, 0, 148N, 767W, 30, 1003, TD

Looking at the recon data, it's hard to see where we don't get Rafael at 10 am.

Strong winds. 35-45kt.

[WaveBreaking]

Looks more stacked compared to yesterday

[tropicwatch]

VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Tropical Depression: Eighteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:15:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.97N 76.58W
B. Center Fix Location: 211 statute miles (340 km) to the S (176°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 739m (2,425ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 38kts (From the ESE at 43.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 1 nautical miles to the S (171°) of center fix at 13:16:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 290° at 19kts (From the WNW at 21.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (206°) of center fix at 13:21:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 12:56:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[TallyTracker]

VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Tropical Depression: Eighteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:15:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.97N 76.58W
B. Center Fix Location: 211 statute miles (340 km) to the S (176°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 739m (2,425ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 38kts (From the ESE at 43.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 1 nautical miles to the S (171°) of center fix at 13:16:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 290° at 19kts (From the WNW at 21.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (206°) of center fix at 13:21:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 12:56:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

That’s marginal TS wind data, but with the impacts to land so close I can see NHC pulling the trigger with 40 mph TS Rafael at 10 am.

[TallyTracker]

The rain forecast here in Tallahassee is to get several inches of rain between Wednesday and Friday with the moisture being brought into the region. This looks to be a classic east weighted system in the Gulf as it gets shredded.

[WaveBreaking]

The rain forecast here in Tallahassee is to get several inches of rain between Wednesday and Friday with the moisture being brought into the region. This looks to be a classic east weighted system in the Gulf as it gets shredded.

Best Track still has it at TD status, but I think they’ll probably revise it before the next advisory.

EDIT: They kept it at TD.

[cycloneye]

The rain forecast here in Tallahassee is to get several inches of rain between Wednesday and Friday with the moisture being brought into the region. This looks to be a classic east weighted system in the Gulf as it gets shredded.

Best Track still has it at TD status, but I think they’ll probably revise it before the next advisory.

Officially TD at 10 AM EST.

1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...

[WaveBreaking]

LLC (yellow clouds) is a little elongated, but convection (purple clouds) is now firing directly over it.

[WaveBreaking]

Some hints at outer banding on microwave imagery

[xironman]

Maybe developing a core by the time the plane gets there. Shrimp?

[chaser1]

Maybe developing a core by the time the plane gets there. Shrimp?

https://i.imgur.com/kQuUi0a.gif

Agreed. I'm guessing a Special Advisory for TS upgrade (depending on time of initial recon fix)

[WaveBreaking]

Maybe developing a core by the time the plane gets there. Shrimp?

https://i.imgur.com/kQuUi0a.gif

It’s convection has definitely gotten better…

[GCANE]

Short-term, high helicity hot tower firing off

[sasha_B]

Very interested to see the recon data from this flight if and when it becomes available. The pressure drop (per the last recon update) combined with the fairly dramatic improvement to the storm's appearance since this morning makes me think this is a tropical storm now; assuming the issue is just with public dissemination of the data and not with the measurements themselves, and they were able to collect wind data and get a center fix, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see TS on the 18z best track point. ADT would support the upgrade (latest intensity estimate is 34 knots & that's with an MSLP estimate higher than was measured), and it would be in line with the official forecast + most computer modeling, so I assume they're just waiting for direct confirmation of sustained winds.