chaser1 wrote:Just as a reminder, exactly "which" particular models were forecasting the MJO to be enhancing 8 & 1 for the last few days of October and first week of November? Looking at Satellite, Caribbean basin conditions look rather volatile with nothing suggestive of impending development. Furthermore, model support for the SW Caribbean development has really dropped off. I wouldn't right-off November altogether but I'm beginning to think that the Atlantic's last "best shot" to produce an impactfull TC may have passed. My guess is that NHC may lower its TWO for the Southwest Caribbean to 0/20 at 8:00 am.
I just wish we had a Florida sweeping cold front to celebrate the season end.
They still have it at 40% which makes sense to me because there's still enough model support to warrant keeping it the same. However, development seems to keep getting push back and is not focused in any way. The best case scenario for impacts is that this just goes away or whatever forms is weak and poorly organized. In the worst case, it's another Milton situation where there's an unclear and mediocre signal for a very longtime until suddenly everything comes together.
