ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[Spacecoast]

Super-Spaghetti (GFS,Euro,UK,CMC,HAFS,HWF, TVCN, EPS,GEFS, AEMN, EPS mean, etc). White line is consensus.


*Courtesy of Tropical Atlantic

[tolakram]

You meant east right. Look at the latest model tendicices... thinking big bend area..

Almost all New Orleans to Alabama area except Euro which wanders west.

[tropicwatch]

The Florida Panhandle being on the east side of it will hopefully bring some much needed rain. Although it will ruin a singer and songwriters festival this weekend possibly

[Stormlover70]

You meant east right. Look at the latest model tendicices... thinking big bend area..

Almost all New Orleans to Alabama area except Euro which wanders west.

thanks. Last thing we need here is another storm......

[xironman]

Stupid remnant low

[tolakram]

12z GFS

[tolakram]

Current shear (trend)


source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

GFS forecast shear near landfall

[tolakram]

12Z Icon

[chaser1]

You meant east right. Look at the latest model tendicices... thinking big bend area..

Depending on the orientation of the large West Atlantic ridge, I'd propose "splitting the difference" and suggest that a more or less due north trajectory into the Apalachicola area. Looking at xironman's post depicting consecutive GFS 300 -700 mb Relative Humidity model runs, a few things come to mind. One clearly being that a deeper and better vertically stacked storm will lend itself to degrade more slowly and continue to maintain fairly strong winds and convective banding on it's north to east quadrants. Also, it appears that the broad West Central CONUS troughing is forecast to cease any south or eastward motion but to have also degraded mid-level ridging to its south and southeast. Hence, I see the primary driver for steering Rafael to essentially be the north/south orientation of the strong W. Atlantic ridge. That should essentially limit much of an eastward component to the latter end of the forecast period but also induce a primarily northward motion all the while. Earlier model runs prior to Halloween were depicting the strong W. Atlantic ridge extending to over the southeast CONUS but most recent forecasts have backed off those stronger heights that might have induced a northwest storm track in the northern GOM. I see predominant steering being northward with final landfall and intensity primarily a result of how far west the storm tracks while crossing Cuba and entering the GOM where a northward motion should ensue. As a footnote, the further east that any northward turn occurs, the less impact from vertical shear (and dry air intrusion) should occur. I think that a 10 -15 kt forward motion will not only largely negate impact from upper shear but also somewhat negate much weakening from time traversing cooler northern GOM SST's. A strong T.S. to borderline Hurricane making landfall along the Central Panhandle doesn't seem that unreasonable to consider.

[chaser1]

12Z Icon
https://i.imgur.com/VVUMca5.gif

Time for a trip to the model doctor LOL. What's wrong ICON? You were doing SO well this year

[chaser1]

I think data from Gulfstream recon for GOM Upper Air sampling would be invaluable to have over the next couple of days (especially for 12Z Wednesday or 0Z Thursday model runs).

[Steve]

12Z Icon
https://i.imgur.com/VVUMca5.gif

Time for a trip to the model doctor LOL. What's wrong ICON? You were doing SO well this year

Haha. It's been a possible scenario since last week though. If it just peters out heading toward Mexico, Texas or Louisiana.

ICON - Diminishes crossing the Gulf E to W and ends up near NE MEXICO

CMC - Weakening at approach near Cape San Blas/Panama City (1007mb+/-)

GFS - "Stronger" solution taking a 1001mb low across the mouth of the MS River then goes in Jackson County, MS

[xironman]

Rafael still ends up in a desert near landfall

[zhukm29]

18z Euro coming in stronger.

 https://x.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1853612845138657648

[aspen]

Today’s 6z HWRF has a good initialization for Rafael: pretty spotty “popcorn” convection and a mid to low 990s pressure. It shows a proper CDO developing by tonight.

[Stormlover70]

Today’s 6z HWRF has a good initialization for Rafael: pretty spotty “popcorn” convection and a mid to low 990s pressure. It shows a proper CDO developing by tonight.

I hope this is the last of the hurricane season. I think it's not though. This is a rare system for sure.

[longhorn2004]

Why do some models have not show it not reaching the La. coast?

[Steve]

Today’s 6z HWRF has a good initialization for Rafael: pretty spotty “popcorn” convection and a mid to low 990s pressure. It shows a proper CDO developing by tonight.

I hope this is the last of the hurricane season. I think it's not though. This is a rare system for sure.

It and the HMON are in the EC/Icon camp with the E-W move across the Gulf and dissipating. HAFSA/B are in line with the GFS and Canadian with the north Gulf but dissipating near "landfall." I haven't looked at the 12z stuff yet but I'm guessing there will still be 2 camps

[cajungal]

Why do some models have not show it not reaching the La. coast?

I think because there will be nothing left of it

[Steve]

Why do some models have not show it not reaching the La. coast?

I haven't studied in enough detail except the surface MSLP. I'm assuming it's not necessarily shear (until the coast) because the low stays pretty concentric. It's probably dry air and other non-optimal conditions such that would exist this late in the season.