Texas Fall 2024

[HockeyTx82]

What's the consensus on tomorrow for DFW? More east of I35?

Timing and overall threat?

[ElectricStorm]

Big expansion of the 10 hatched, yet another dangerous day ahead

[Stratton23]

Next 7-10 days should feature continuous rain chances, beyond that, ensembles are actually in good agreement that we are going to finally see some arctic air beginning to move out of the arctic and into NW canada, combine that with a -AO block and a -NAO, the ensembles are definitely trending towards colder weather as we get beyond the 15th or so

[Brent]

There may be snow in the Oklahoma panhandle before this storm clears out...

[HockeyTx82]

Tornado Warning for OKC at 630AM?

What is going on with the weather?

[snownado]

Honestly, on paper, today is somewhat of an underhyped setup for severe weather.

Decent directional shear, dewpoints in the low 70s, strong LLJ, good timing (around peak heating), no morning convection to work over the atmosphere, etc.

The NE half of DFW is in the Enhanced Risk area for tornadoes...

[Cpv17]

There may be snow in the Oklahoma panhandle before this storm clears out...

Also, what I find interesting is that the Gulf and Caribbean look to remain kinda active regarding the tropics and it’s November…seems strange to me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There may be snow in the Oklahoma panhandle before this storm clears out...

Also, what I find interesting is that the Gulf and Caribbean look to remain kinda active regarding the tropics and it’s November…seems strange to me.

MJO phase is very favorable for this type of activity.

[TropicalTundra]

There may be snow in the Oklahoma panhandle before this storm clears out...

Can't remember the last time we saw a system with tornadoes on the front end and a snowstorm on the back... especially for November lol

[jasons2k]

Here is the 48-hour WPC forecast. Hopefully the front tonight brings some widespread rain across SE Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

Line forming out to the west. Maybe it will help keep discrete cells down?

Thoughts?

[Yukon Cornelius]

5.07” so far for the past 2.5 days.

[Edwards Limestone]

October PDO -3.81 per NOAA. We are experiencing one of the most severe -PDO in recorded times. This driven by record Western Pacific warmth rather your canonical warm west and cold east Pacific balance.

Terrible news for most of Texas if you like rain.

[snownado]

Here we go...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/18534816288 ... 1x5rw&s=19

[funster]

Tornado risk seems high with high chance (70%) of 2 or more tornadoes and mod (40%) of probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

[HockeyTx82]

I'm guessing the most will be along the line, are they expecting discrete cells as the catalyst for ef2 and above?

Something is not adding up.

I fear because it's November people are not paying attention.

[snownado]

Tornado risk seems high with high chance (70%) of 2 or more tornadoes and mod (40%) of probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Some pretty impressive 0-3km CAPE showing up, so that checks out...

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm guessing the most will be along the line, are they expecting discrete cells as the catalyst for ef2 and above?

Something is not adding up.

I fear because it's November people are not paying attention.

The storms that will have the highest chance to produce tornadoes will be those that congeal in the confluence bands ahead of the main line. Right now, these are ragged clusters of tiny cells streaming northward. The concern is that some of these will aggregate into cells that would be able to capitalize on the environment. Watch for any that do this, and start to bend their track to the right of the mean motion. A good, but rather extreme, example of this congealing set up would be the garland ef4 on 12/26/15, same with 4/3/12 when that Arlington ef2 sent those tractor trailers flying on video. Outcomes like that might not occur, but that’s what to watch for.

Additionally, if the line out west either breaks up enough to allow for semi-discrete supercells, or solidifies into a mature mcs, tornadoes could occur there. I think the former is more possible, since that’s basically what we’re currently seeing in Oklahoma, but I guess we’ll see. 12/13/22* is probably a good analog for this as well. A lot of similar setups in the past have amounted to nothing, but a couple have been notable.

* corrected analog

[Ntxw]

This pattern is very intriguing to me. Back in the summer thread I remember posting how the 'cold' was being sent into the intermountain west and western plains. This is happening now, and is a prominent -PDO (cold west, warm east) feature. If this continues through winter will probably have some powerful Rocky Mountain systems and cooling in the interior Great Plains.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cell near Clifton is currently the one to watch for dfw