ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Rafael.

AL, 18, 2024110418, , BEST, 0, 151N, 764W, 40, 999, TS

[Nimbus]

VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Tropical Depression: Eighteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:15:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.97N 76.58W
B. Center Fix Location: 211 statute miles (340 km) to the S (176°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 739m (2,425ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 38kts (From the ESE at 43.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 1 nautical miles to the S (171°) of center fix at 13:16:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 290° at 19kts (From the WNW at 21.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (206°) of center fix at 13:21:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 12:56:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

That’s marginal TS wind data, but with the impacts to land so close I can see NHC pulling the trigger with 40 mph TS Rafael at 10 am.

When they announce Rafael they will want to provide a track forecast for a somewhat sensitive west coast Florida which is more of a problem than intensity. Although I agree that if this bumbles around in the gulf as the 12Z ICON forecast before approaching gulf coast its going to be weak and sheared at landfall.

[WaveBreaking]

Rafael’s outflow is a little limited on the W side due to the TUTT that spawned it (similar to Helene), but it is improving. Vortex is still a little tilted, but the convection over its center should help to stack it.

Also the old AOI that failed to develop is just about to cross over Cuba rn.

[Stormcenter]

I cannot believe we are even talking about the possibility of a U.S. landfalling tropical system in November but when the temps are in middle 80’s it does not surprise me.

[xironman]

999 is more like it. 53kts isn't a slouch either.

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15.04N 76.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 208 statute miles (335 km) to the S (172°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 679m (2,228ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW/W (259°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 354° at 20kts (From the N at 23.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 17:40:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 17:51:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 210° at 38kts (From the SSW at 43.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) of center fix at 17:42:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) which was observed 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) from the flight level center at 17:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

EYEWALL DEVELOPING NEAR CENTER
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[Travorum]

Pressure is down 2mb between passes, and there are still reports of the eyewall developing.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 04/19:17:00Z
B. 15.18 deg N 076.29 deg W
C. 925 mb 660 m
D. EXTRAP 997 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 42 kt
I. 333 deg 1 nm 19:16:30Z
J. 137 deg 41 kt
K. 039 deg 57 nm 18:58:00Z
L. 38 kt
M. 215 deg 2 nm 19:19:30Z
N. 261 deg 36 kt
O. 151 deg 2 nm 19:18:30Z
P. 20 C / 763 m
Q. 23 C / 767 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0418A INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 039 / 57 NM 18:58:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
EYEWALL DEVELOPING NEAR CENTER

[wxman57]

Apparently, I wasn't looking at the 12Z ICON earlier. It, like the 12Z Euro, now takes the center westward to near Mexico or Texas next week as a remnant low pressure area. I think both models may be too weak with the system, so I'm still thinking a remnant low off the LA coast on Saturday. No TS landfall.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon finding pressure around 997 mb, a bit lower than most modeling had shown for this time. Models may have to catch up to TD 18 intensity as often happens.

[tropicwatch]

Guess NHC is just going to wait for the next advisory to pull the trigger.

[wxman57]

Guess NHC is just going to wait for the next advisory to pull the trigger.

Yeah, Rafael in the next 30-45 min.

[Steve]

Guess NHC is just going to wait for the next advisory to pull the trigger.

Yeah, Rafael in the next 30-45 min.

I don't really care about standard or savings time all that much. But I'm not used to the tropics being on standard time

[AnnularCane]

Guess NHC is just going to wait for the next advisory to pull the trigger.

Yeah, Rafael in the next 30-45 min.

I don't really care about standard or savings time all that much. But I'm not used to the tropics being on standard time

I used to live in Central time. So for me it's like being back in Central time.

[MarioProtVI]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

C2 peak now.

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

In 48 hours the NHC has the cyclones winds at 100 mph. So a stronger system, will we see track changes later? The 4 pm NHC update states the center has jogged a bit to the right, what are the possibilities with this, if any, as the 4 pm forecast cone looks essentially the same?

[Travorum]

In 48 hours the NHC has the cyclones winds at 100 mph. So a stronger system, will we see track changes later? The 4 pm NHC update states the center has jogged a bit to the right, what are the possibilities with this, if any, as the 4 pm forecast cone looks essentially the same?

From the NHC discussion:

when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of lower confidence.

So yes, the NHC thinks that track in the Gulf will be at least somewhat intensity dependent, but that there is a high amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at that point. The NHC forecast so far has split the middle of the ensemble spread and the cone covers most ensemble members save a few outliers.

[xironman]

Guess NHC is just going to wait for the next advisory to pull the trigger.

Yeah, Rafael in the next 30-45 min.

I don't really care about standard or savings time all that much. But I'm not used to the tropics being on standard time

November is the new October

[underthwx]

In 48 hours the NHC has the cyclones winds at 100 mph. So a stronger system, will we see track changes later? The 4 pm NHC update states the center has jogged a bit to the right, what are the possibilities with this, if any, as the 4 pm forecast cone looks essentially the same?

From the NHC discussion:

when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of lower confidence.

So yes, the NHC thinks that track in the Gulf will be at least somewhat intensity dependent, but that there is a high amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at that point. The NHC forecast so far has split the middle of the ensemble spread and the cone covers most ensemble members save a few outliers.

Thanks for your reply, I just read the NWS Panama City forecast discussion, mainly the long term portion, and they too mention the large uncertainty once the cyclone enters the Southeast Gulf, being that current NHC forecast cone is just to the southwest of Panama City.

[Hurricane Mike]

Afternoon Video on Rafael
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjPkz3vKhMk

[aspen]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

C2 peak now.

Wondering if we may see a MH landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.