ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#161 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:39 pm

It appears to be organizing quicker than anticipated this evening. That said if it gets stacked and stronger faster, any chance it stays on a more northerly track longer, before turning NW.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#162 Postby tulum07 » Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:46 pm

SW/SE FL may come into play if it continues N.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#163 Postby hipshot » Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:56 pm

tulum07 wrote:SW/SE FL may come into play if it continues N.


The last I've read is that the storm will go north and then north west through the western tip of Cuba...but, after that there seems to be a lot
of uncertainty. I think they'll know more in about 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#164 Postby Jr0d » Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:56 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening everyone,

Watching it here in Key Largo. At least for now not overly concerned, has been constantly windy here for several weeks. Quick passing showers since yesterday.


I am in Key West. After getting flooded from Ian I get a bit anxious when we have a storm like this.

Hopefully it will be just another round of tropical storm conditions...too late to late to evacuate now besides
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#165 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:02 pm

Hi JR
I grew up down there so I know what you mean. Tuff when they come up from the south, trying to get out going north, stay safe.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#166 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:18 pm

Hurricanes have hit Texas in November.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#167 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:28 pm

No longer forecasting a Cat 2 in the newest advisory which I don't agree on.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#168 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:16 pm

Track shifted west.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#169 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:41 pm

After what Rafael looked like earlier this afternoon, I did NOT expect to check back in tonight to see a shrimp already :double:

Image
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#170 Postby Astromanía » Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:58 am

Yei, a storm with my name
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#171 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:10 am

From NWS New Orleans forecast discussion.

"LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024

The Euro has been moving quite strongly against climo. As time
increases in any model, climo plays a bigger role. So, when any
model goes against it that far out, it is something to take note of.
This new upper jet coming into the PacNW will move around the base
of the long wave trough Thu morning causing the southern portion of
the trough to lift NE rapidly. When this occurs, it causes
downstream reinforcment of the ridging across the SE in its wake.
This strong ridging is what the Euro is showing as the upper low
lifts out by the end of the week. Since this ridging pattern is
rather weak in the GFS due to the upper trough being slower, it is
why the GFS is bringing the system farther east. With respect to the
extended, there are questions with how the EURO is handling this
system as well. There is a very strong upper trough that develops by
the start of next week which digs rapidly sending a cold front
through the area by Wed(give or take a day). This trough would
definitely be able to break down the ridge in front of it, but it
does not draw this system northward either in the 00z run. Puzzling,
but we will look strongly at the next 3 to 5 days instead of mid-
next week."
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#172 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:51 am

Definitely looking better organized.

Image
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#173 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:06 am

First recon pass by AF301 found an extrapolated pressure of 995.1 mb with 6 kt winds nearby -> 994/995 mb.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#174 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:09 am

Steady pressure, winds on the west side remain very weak. Not a great structure at the moment. It’ll take some time to build up something conducive for RI, so this should mean a MH landfall in Cuba isn’t that likely.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#175 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:13 am

Ptarmigan wrote:Hurricanes have hit Texas in November.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf


Hey, Ptarmigan! Haven't seen you here in a while. Maybe I just missed your posts. I remember Hurricane Jerry striking the Houston area in mid-November of 1989. I was riding a 100 mile bike ride out of Alvin the day before. Terrible headwind the past 30 miles heading east back to Alvin. I came in first on that ride. By mile 98, it was just me and one other guy left. He asked if that was the finish up ahead and I said I wasn't sure. He took off sprinting to get there first, with me on his wheel. I remember the look of defeat on his face as I passed him when he realized there was still one mile to go.

As for Rafael, it is important to note that no model has it at even tropical storm strength when it reaches the coast - either MX/TX or LA/MS. Strong wind shear across the NW Gulf should see to that. It is interesting that the EC and ICON show the west movement, but both dissipate it east of MX/TX early next week. I don't think we'll see a hurricane or even a TS into Texas if it tracks west. My new track has it weakening to a remnant low off the SE LA coast on Sunday morning. Once it moves north of 26N, the shear really hits it hard.

Recon just made its first pass through the center. May be a small area of 35kt wind on the NW side of the center, but pressure is up a bit overnight.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#176 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:14 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely looking better organized.

https://i.imgur.com/Hgz3lli.jpeg

IR looks decent but the obs tell a different story, nonetheless its Nov 5th and we have a tropical system and possibly more in the near future.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#177 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:18 am

54 kt FL winds supports holding the current strength of 50 kt with indeed a pressure around 994 - 995 mb. Improving under the hood and stabilizing, but it's not translating to any real strengthening yet.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#178 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:19 am

Recon found it dropped 2mb between passes down to 994 so if that were to continue Havana should be concerned.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#179 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:19 am

Eye drop supports 993 - 994 mb.

Image
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#180 Postby TomballEd » Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:40 am

wxman57 wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:Hurricanes have hit Texas in November.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf


Hey, Ptarmigan! Haven't seen you here in a while. Maybe I just missed your posts. I remember Hurricane Jerry striking the Houston area in mid-November of 1989. I was riding a 100 mile bike ride out of Alvin the day before. Terrible headwind the past 30 miles heading east back to Alvin. I came in first on that ride. By mile 98, it was just me and one other guy left. He asked if that was the finish up ahead and I said I wasn't sure. He took off sprinting to get there first, with me on his wheel. I remember the look of defeat on his face as I passed him when he realized there was still one mile to go.

As for Rafael, it is important to note that no model has it at even tropical storm strength when it reaches the coast - either MX/TX or LA/MS. Strong wind shear across the NW Gulf should see to that. It is interesting that the EC and ICON show the west movement, but both dissipate it east of MX/TX early next week. I don't think we'll see a hurricane or even a TS into Texas if it tracks west. My new track has it weakening to a remnant low off the SE LA coast on Sunday morning. Once it moves north of 26N, the shear really hits it hard.

Recon just made its first pass through the center. May be a small area of 35kt wind on the NW side of the center, but pressure is up a bit overnight.


Jerry was in October. It was OU weekend. Gardere one the first of 4 straight, the only Texas QB to beat OU 4 times.
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