ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

[wxman57]

Hurricanes have hit Texas in November.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf

Hey, Ptarmigan! Haven't seen you here in a while. Maybe I just missed your posts. I remember Hurricane Jerry striking the Houston area in mid-November of 1989. I was riding a 100 mile bike ride out of Alvin the day before. Terrible headwind the past 30 miles heading east back to Alvin. I came in first on that ride. By mile 98, it was just me and one other guy left. He asked if that was the finish up ahead and I said I wasn't sure. He took off sprinting to get there first, with me on his wheel. I remember the look of defeat on his face as I passed him when he realized there was still one mile to go.

As for Rafael, it is important to note that no model has it at even tropical storm strength when it reaches the coast - either MX/TX or LA/MS. Strong wind shear across the NW Gulf should see to that. It is interesting that the EC and ICON show the west movement, but both dissipate it east of MX/TX early next week. I don't think we'll see a hurricane or even a TS into Texas if it tracks west. My new track has it weakening to a remnant low off the SE LA coast on Sunday morning. Once it moves north of 26N, the shear really hits it hard.

Recon just made its first pass through the center. May be a small area of 35kt wind on the NW side of the center, but pressure is up a bit overnight.

Jerry was in October. It was OU weekend. Gardere one the first of 4 straight, the only Texas QB to beat OU 4 times.

Yeah, October. Oops! No November storm has ever reached Texas. Recon obs support 50 kts, but over a very small area.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

I'm shocked at the number of recon flights into Rafael, as soon as one flight finishes another one is taking off. They must have gotten more funds approved recently.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1853783324201746696

[xironman]

I'm shocked at the number of recon flights into Rafael, as soon as one flight finishes another one is taking off. They must have gotten more funds approved recently.

Its a long flight, in order to do six hour fixes they need to do that

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A
THREAT

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm shocked at the number of recon flights into Rafael, as soon as one flight finishes another one is taking off. They must have gotten more funds approved recently.

Could be a "use or lose it" annual budget thing.

[zzzh]

New bursts around the center, Rafael is developing a core.

[GCANE]

Eyewall building underway

[wxman57]

12Z ICON is sticking to its guns in forecasting a west movement south of 25N and dissipation in the south-central Gulf around next Tuesday. It actually merges it with a cold front then. We have ICON, EC, EC-AIFS, and HWRF taking it west near or south of 25N. GFS, Canadian, and hurricane models (HAFS) take it to the Alabama coast as a TD or remnant low on Saturday evening. The ICON has my attention, as it has been the top model in the Gulf this season. That would be good news for all Gulf coast residents, though neither track poses a significant threat to the coast. Watch for some tornadoes across the Keys and southern FL Peninsula on Thursday as outer bands extend to there.

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/mZ5b1Uo.gif
New bursts around the center, Rafael is developing a core.

That convection is popping up right where that tongue of dry air was entraining earlier this morning on microwave, should that convection hold it would cut that dry air off and allow some sustained development.

[WaveBreaking]

[MGC]

I'm shocked at the number of recon flights into Rafael, as soon as one flight finishes another one is taking off. They must have gotten more funds approved recently.

New fiscal year started 1 October. Lots of money for gas and crews.

Rafael is looking good this morning. Should continue to intensify until landfall in Cuba and perhaps regroup in the GOM. Not yet sold on the Euro track yet but it is possible. Reminds me of Hurricane Jeanne in 1980. I'm more onboard with a 2009 Ida track, with the cyclone falling apart as it reaches the N GOM coast. We need the rain here. October was very dry with .16 inch at KGPT......MGC

[aspen]

So far it seems like Rafael’s pressure is still steady, but the plane hasn’t made a full center pass yet so it may be a little lower.

[kevin]

Pressure still steady at 993 - 994 mb per the dropsonde, but the 59 kt FL winds support a potential upgrade to 55 kt.

[wxman57]

Pressure still steady at 993 - 994 mb per the dropsonde, but the 59 kt FL winds support a potential upgrade to 55 kt.

I see only 47 kts max at FL at 1750Z. Looks like it's still at 50 kts.

[zzzh]

Rafael is rapidly organizing on IR. It's only a matter of time for wind to catch up.

[TomballEd]

NHC is using a compromise between models that show bifurcation, the forecast is unlikely to be close to correct, but it is closer to what actually happens if they pick wrong between the N Gulf and Center Gulf.

I'm -removed- it gets further W in the Gulf or stalls the cold front IMBY, so moisture will be pulled N to rain on my yard. Had a nice little rain this morning, driving to work, first CG strikes I have seen in months. But it has been so dry.

OT- who is starting the 2024-25 Texas winter thread? I've seen thundersleet in DFW on Thanksgiving.

Back on topic, models show dry air W of Rafael, and satellite seems to confirm with arc clouds (outflow boundaries) pushing out on that side of the storm.

[Travorum]

[Note that these data points are not consecutive, the peak winds were measured 10 minutes out from the center]

184000 1900N 07845W 8420 01510 0029 +150 +128 121064 073 052 001 00
184130 1857N 07849W 8423 01501 0026 +144 +126 129062 063 061 028 00
185130 1838N 07914W 8423 01425 9899 +223 +105 036005 010 029 000 00

Recon is flying at 850mb so 73kt FL winds would reduce to 58kts. That combined with 61kt SFMR is solid evidence for 60kts. Note that these peak winds are pretty far from the center. Central pressure down to 989.9 extrap so dropping steadily.

[WaveBreaking]

That latest convective burst closed off the dry slot and possibly formed an eyewall. Also there’s some new banding to the NW which should also help to mix out the dry air.