2024 Cyclone Retirements (Breaking ATLC: Beryl, Helene, Milton; EPAC: John)

[aaaaaa]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

Debby affected badly my town, but i dont think she deserve to be retired, damage is too light and unfortunally some people die because her, but she was not this bad, personally the ice storm in april 2023 was worst for my town

[GSBHurricane]

I generally think the WPAC could see 4, MAYBE 5 retirements this year: Gaemi, Yagi, Shanshan, Ewiniar with the possibility of Krathon making it

Gaemi and Yagi are the obvious two
Shanshan caused $6 billion in damages in Japan, mostly in Kyushu
Ewiniar's PAGASA name is getting retired

I don't think Shanshan will get retired because Japan didn't give it a special name like it did with Faxai and Hagibis. That also explains why Jebi wasn't retired after 2018. As for Krathon I think its PAGASA name meets their criteria so the Philippines will probably request it.

[Torino]

My thoughts so far:

ATL:
Beryl, Helene and Milton for sure
Oscar maybe
Debby stays

EPAC:
John probably

WPAC:
Yagi and Trami for sure
Gaemi probably
Krathon maybe
Shanshan stays, unless the Japanese decide to change their approach on retirement
+Mawar from 2023, probably

[GSBHurricane]

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

Debby affected badly my town, but i dont think she deserve to be retired, damage is too light and unfortunally some people die because her, but she was not this bad, personally the ice storm in april 2023 was worst for my town

$1.8 billion ($2.5 billion Canadian) is a lot of damage though, especially for Quebec. So for that reason I can’t rule anything out. And it’s USA damage was bumped up to $2.5 billion so we can’t rule anything out just yet.

[HurricaneRyan]

Is it a bit too early to speculate that we may need a new female P name for List 4? Because some recent model runs have really shed light on a scary system forming in the WCAR....

Make that a new R name.

Obviously I'm going with Ryan!

[zhukm29]

Is it a bit too early to speculate that we may need a new female P name for List 4? Because some recent model runs have really shed light on a scary system forming in the WCAR....

Make that a new R name.

Obviously I'm going with Ryan!

If some of the recent hurricane model runs pan out and 97L overperforms, we might end up getting the first ever male 'R' name retirement since the modern naming lists were introduced, on the both the Pacific and Atlantic side. All of the 'R' retirements have been female names... so maybe this will finally be a chance for Ryan to be added to the lists! Definitely my top pick as well if soon-to-be Rafael ends up being a big one.

[aaaaaa]

I dont think Patty will be retired, but it seem she go to Spain and currently Spain face major flooding killing 200 people, i dont exclude Patty going to made it worst

[Torino]

Now Rafael also has a pretty good chance of getting retired. Considering that Cuba could request its retirement, I'd expect another Hispanic name replacing Rafael, like Rodrigo, Ruben or Raul.

[chaser1]

I would guess that Rafael will be retired given it's major hurricane landfall status in conjunction with the number of deaths that occurred in Cuba. That would seem to suggest that at least 4 tropical cyclone names will be retired this year with an outside possibility of an additional impacting Caribbean storm to yet develop. That's a scary statistic when one considers only one year - 2005, exceeded that with 5 retired names.

[galaxy401]

I don't think Rafael is guaranteed retirement at the moment. Don't know how bad the damage is in Cuba though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't think Rafael is guaranteed retirement at the moment. Don't know how bad the damage is in Cuba though.

It knocked out the power grid to the entire island, although Cuba hasn't been having great luck with power this year.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/weather/ ... index.html

[GSBHurricane]

It looks like Trami (and possibly Kong-Rey) will be retired.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, at this point I'm leaning toward Rafael not being retired. Thankfully, at least as of now, there don't seem to be reports of major/extensive damage and deaths in Cuba. We probably would've been looking at a different picture had Rafael been a category higher.

[MarioProtVI]

Yeah, at this point I'm leaning toward Rafael not being retired. Thankfully, at least as of now, there don't seem to be reports of major/extensive damage and deaths in Cuba. We probably would've been looking at a different picture had Rafael been a category higher.

Jamaica might request it now though, considering damages were reported by the prime minster to be US$500M-1B.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed that I'm leaning against retirement for Rafael right now.

Sara, on the other hand...

[Category5Kaiju]

Agreed that I'm leaning against retirement for Rafael right now.

Sara, on the other hand...

Replacing Sara will be no problem. Stephanie, Sabrina, Serena, Samantha, etc.

[Torino]

Strong possibility that we might have 5 retired names from this season.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed that I'm leaning against retirement for Rafael right now.

Sara, on the other hand...

Replacing Sara will be no problem. Stephanie, Sabrina, Serena, Samantha, etc.

Others I can think of are Shelby, Sheila, Susan, Symone, Shirley, Sylvia... there are lots. It would be the deepest in the alphabet we get a third-generation name as well (Sandy --> Sara --> S???)

[HurricaneRyan]

If Sara does get retired, it will be for whatever happens in CA, since Florida won't be in the picture now.

[Category5Kaiju]

So as of now, it looks like barring any major late November/December surprises, the 2024 season will end with Beryl, Helene, and Milton as the 3 retirement locks. I personally cannot think of any good reason why any of those names shall survive retirement, given how destructive they were to the places they impacted.

Combine that with a possible "dark horse" retirement (like as others were hinting at, possibly Debby due to the damages it did in Canada despite not being a powerful, major hurricane), this season will end with roughly 4 storm names retired.