EPAC: FOURTEEN - E - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2024110218, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1104W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, SPAWNINVEST, ep782024 to ep932024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932024.dat

[StormWeather]

Another EPAC Invest. Huh. Anyone would think it’s a -PDO/-ENSO…

[cycloneye]

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure located well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has a well-defined circulation, although shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently limited and disorganized. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
over the next several days as the system continues to move slowly.
The low is expected to begin an eastward drift by the early to
middle part of the upcoming week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Another EPAC Invest. Huh. Anyone would think it’s a -PDO/-ENSO…

To be fair if it even forms, it would be the 13th named storm? Still below average in NS which would equate to -PDO/-ENSO. And ACE remains well below average.

[cycloneye]

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
An area of low pressure located well to the south of the southern
tip of Baja California is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some additional development of this slow-moving small
system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several
days. The low is expected to begin an eastward drift in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has a well-defined circulation. Although
environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
additional development of this slow-moving system during the next
couple of days, only a slight increase in the organization of the
shower and thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression. The low is expected to begin an eastward drift
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[Subtrop]

EP, 14, 2024110612, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1064W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, TRANSITIONED, epC32024 to ep142024,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking a well-defined low
pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern Mexican coast. Beginning around 2300 UTC on Tuesday,
deep convection formed over the low-level circulation and cold cloud
tops have persisted for over 15 hours. TAFB has classified this
system with a T2.0, indicating that is has reached the necessary
requirements of maintaining deep, organized convection. Therefore,
the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Scatterometer data is
expected later today which should provide a better intensity
estimate.

The depression is drifting northeastward at 3 kt. A narrow
mid-level ridge is building to the north of the cyclone and expected
to turn the depression eastward later today. The system should
briefly accelerate and turn more east-southeastward to southeastward
on Thursday before drifting back to the east-southeast on Friday in
the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies between the simple
and corrected consensus aids.

Surrounding dry mid-level humidities and moderate vertical wind
shear seem to be the limiting factors preventing the depression from
any significant strengthening. Global models indicate there should
be a brief period in about day or so that the deep-layer vertical
wind shear should relax slightly and possibly allow for a little
strengthening. The depression is expected to lose its organized
deep convection over the weekend and open into a trough. However,
there is a possibility this occurs sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized
convection. Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have
dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of
convection not associated with the depression. Furthermore, the
outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be
disrupting the low-level circulation. The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has
also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective
organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous
25 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and
prevent further strengthening. Global models continue to predict
that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though
it is possible this has already occurred. The latest official
intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday.

The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt. The low-level
flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon. The
NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Fourteen-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

First-light visible geostationary satellite imagery revealed that
the depression has dissipated. Based on the low-level cloud
motions, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E no longer has a well-defined
circulation and appears to be a trough open to the northeast. The
remnants of the depression are forecast to continue moving
southeastward today and then linger in the region for the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.6N 103.8W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci