ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Recon has found peak FL winds of 93 kt so far and 107 kt uncontaminated SFMR. FL supports 85 kt, but (despite the lesser reliability) SFMR and the stable pressure might be sufficient for NHC to keep it at 90 kt. The dropsonde supports a pressure of 970 mb. While the convection is no longer as cold as before, the eye seems to be warming again. It's to be seen whether this eye clearing is aided by dry air, in which case it will likely induce weakening. If not, the improved structure (it's no longer a halfcane) could help Rafael to intensify in the upcoming 12 - 24 hours.

[tropicwatch]

One thing I am seeing in the Panhandle and off Alabama and Mississippi, are showers moving east to west. I don't know if this is because the southern end of the front is stalling or influence from Rafael. Or is it because the high over the Atlantic is that strong or all the above? Either way, how would that affect the movement of Rafael?

[tolakram]

Current shear analysis


source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... om=Z&time=

[kevin]

The last five center passes of the current planes seem to indicate slight strengthening or at the very least a stabilization of Rafael over the last 3 hours.

11:29z = 91 kt FL (NOAA plane)
11:55z = 89 kt FL (AF plane)
12:43z = 93 kt FL (NOAA plane)
12:55z = 92 kt FL (AF plane)
14:13z = 96 kt FL (NOAA plane)

[TallyTracker]

85 kts makes sense for this advisory. I’m interested to see if Rafael can wall off the dry air as the shear weakens. It could theoretically intensify in this environment if it can keep the dry air out of the core.

[Emmett_Brown]

Rafael is a great example that longer range (3-5 day) forecast tracks can change dramatically, depending on the synoptic setup, time of year etc. Just because the last storm seemed locked on rails toward a destination doesn't mean they will all behave the same way.

[zzzh]

FL 107kt. I'd say 95kt.

[kevin]

Latest center pass found 107 kt FL in the NE quadrant and an extrapolated pressure of 968.6 mb with 9 kt winds -> 968 mb. Supports an upgrade to 968mb/95kt.

[Travorum]

Pressure is starting to drop back down, 968.6mb extrap.

[zzzh]

Strengthening now.

[kevin]

Interesting how even in the very short term (+9 hrs) the 06z hurricane models significantly underestimated Rafael (87 kt HWRF, 77 kt HMON, 81 kt HAFS-A, 81 kt HAFS-B) if the NHC indeed goes with 95 kt. Luckily it won't encounter land within the coming 24 hours or so, because it seems to be near-impossible to get a consistent accurate forecast for Rafael.

[GCANE]

Interesting how even in the very short term (+9 hrs) the 06z hurricane models significantly underestimated Rafael (87 kt HWRF, 77 kt HMON, 81 kt HAFS-A, 81 kt HAFS-B) if the NHC indeed goes with 95 kt. Luckily it won't encounter land within the coming 24 hours or so, because it seems to be near-impossible to get a consistent accurate forecast for Rafael.

Seems like the models do poorly early in the season and late in the season

[xironman]

Latest drop is 969 with a 10 kt wind. Maybe starting to feel the heat of the loop current.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This already has 6.4 ACE points so it should easily beat Issac and Helene on ACE for 4th place this season

[WaveBreaking]

[xironman]

Mesos racing around the eyewall again. Maybe we will see some intensification for the next flight.

[ElectricStorm]

Doesn't look terrible, maybe it can rebound a bit before dry air takes over

[tolakram]

All day floater loop

[underthwx]

Recon has found peak FL winds of 93 kt so far and 107 kt uncontaminated SFMR. FL supports 85 kt, but (despite the lesser reliability) SFMR and the stable pressure might be sufficient for NHC to keep it at 90 kt. The dropsonde supports a pressure of 970 mb. While the convection is no longer as cold as before, the eye seems to be warming again. It's to be seen whether this eye clearing is aided by dry air, in which case it will likely induce weakening. If not, the improved structure (it's no longer a halfcane) could help Rafael to intensify in the upcoming 12 - 24 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/FBaDWai.gif

Is Rafael still a major hurricane?

[underthwx]

All day floater loop
https://i.imgur.com/SThIB6H.gif

Rafael looking very healthy, at least for the time being. When will the cyclone begin to encounter the dryer air?