ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde at 965 mbs.

[Travorum]

Rafael is giving Alex 2010 a run for its money as best looking Category 2 hurricane.

[sasha_B]

Rafael is giving Alex 2010 a run for its money as best looking Category 2 hurricane.

That's for sure. ADT CI is up to 6.1, with pressure estimated 20+ mb lower and Vmax estimated 27 knots higher than recon actually observed. Pretty darn impressive for a 90kt storm.

[aspen]

Rafael is giving Alex 2010 a run for its money as best looking Category 2 hurricane.

That's for sure. ADT CI is up to 6.1, with pressure estimated 20+ mb lower and Vmax estimated 27 knots higher than recon actually observed. Pretty darn impressive for a 90kt storm.

A really unusual instance of a system that’s far less impressive under the hood than what satellite imagery would suggest. I guess storms like Rafael justify the NHC’s caution and conservative estimates in some situations. Maybe they were right to keep Issac as a Cat 2.

[sasha_B]

Rafael is giving Alex 2010 a run for its money as best looking Category 2 hurricane.

That's for sure. ADT CI is up to 6.1, with pressure estimated 20+ mb lower and Vmax estimated 27 knots higher than recon actually observed. Pretty darn impressive for a 90kt storm.

A really unusual instance of a system that’s far less impressive under the hood than what satellite imagery would suggest. I guess storms like Rafael justify the NHC’s caution and conservative estimates in some situations. Maybe they were right to keep Issac as a Cat 2.

Eh. If this were a storm approaching a populated area, better to overestimate it than underestimate it, and correct down post-season if necessary; I do hope Rafael isn't used to justify further conservatism / skepticism towards indirect intensity estimates going forward. As you said, it's a really unusual instance - one might even call it an exception to prove the rule.

[Keldeo1997]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

[johngaltfla]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

Nothing personal from those of us in Western Florida, but:

HUSH

[FrontRunner]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

Round of applause for the significant improvements in track forecast accuracy over the decades such that people are confident this will stay away from land.

[canebeard]

Satellite presentation reminds me, some, of Hurricane Kate, November 1985 in just about the same location:

[psyclone]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

Exactly what I was thinking. Generally we think once a cane is the gulf someone is getting creamed. It's quite unusual for a cane to dissipate in the gulf without hitting someone. Free swell with no destruction is awesome...and very rare.

[FireRat]

Nuts to see this in November in the Gulf, wow yet another 2024 oddball event!

[ScottNAtlanta]

According to the last vortex message there are concentric rings again, so it is starting another EWRC

[Teban54]

Remember when this was supposed to have been eaten alive by dry air by now?

[sasha_B]

Officially a major hurricane again. 105 knots, 956 hPa, per an 06z special advisory, and forecast to continue strengthening over the next 12 hours.

[weeniepatrol]

Special advisory indicates 956 mb (and 105 kt with a 110 peak) - Kate 1985 bottomed out at 953 mb. How low can we go? Rafael is threatening to shatter numerous satellite-era November Gulf of Mexico records.

By the way, hyperactivity is now locked in as we cross the official threshold for that within 2 days.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Thinking it goes Cat 4.

[HurricaneRyan]

Not only is it a Kate 1985 analog, but also Jeanne 1980 and Laurie 1969 but stronger.

[xironman]

Still managing to fight off the dry air, no shear to push it into the circulation. Maybe it will lose its moist inflow channel or the lower heat potential to kill it.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks to be in good shape, Rafael looks like it maybe strengthening, lots of lightning going on in the eye wall. If it can keep it strength up with the hot waters of the gulf I think it may take longer to die than the models are showing and not affect by dry air.

GOES-16 GeoProxy, Tropical Airmass, GLM blend