2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[underthwx]

Its Hurricane season until November 30th. Maybe the models are teasing everyone? Or maybe more surprises are on the horizon. If anything does indeed form, let's hope it will be far away from any land, and just something to discuss and appreciate, mother nature doing what she does.

[SFLcane]

Its Hurricane season until November 30th. Maybe the models are teasing everyone? Or maybe more surprises are on the horizon. If anything does indeed form, let's hope it will be far away from any land, and just something to discuss and appreciate, mother nature doing what she does.

Oh there’s definitely a signal for another storm in the Caribbean. EPS is also pretty aggressive

[underthwx]

Its Hurricane season until November 30th. Maybe the models are teasing everyone? Or maybe more surprises are on the horizon. If anything does indeed form, let's hope it will be far away from any land, and just something to discuss and appreciate, mother nature doing what she does.

Oh there’s definitely a signal for another storm in the Caribbean. EPS is also pretty aggressive

Incredible. These signals cannot be ignored, or brushed aside as bogus, especially this particular season! I will be staying tuned.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop:

[underthwx]

Saved GFS loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zKHbb17/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-294.gif

Gatorcane, have these model runs been consistent with this feature? You have my attention for sure, this is a familiar theme late in the 2024 season.

[WaveBreaking]

Its Hurricane season until November 30th. Maybe the models are teasing everyone? Or maybe more surprises are on the horizon. If anything does indeed form, let's hope it will be far away from any land, and just something to discuss and appreciate, mother nature doing what she does.

Oh there’s definitely a signal for another storm in the Caribbean. EPS is also pretty aggressive

Solid signal on both ensembles. Obviously, intensity is a toss-up, but it shows that the ceiling is once again high.

[gatorcane]

It’s like we are behind a month and it is more like October or even September with Rafael tracking way west in the Gulf. Florida hasn’t seen its first real cold front. Maybe we will see that front next weekend but you do wonder if the door is still open particularly for South Florida.

[underthwx]

Its Hurricane season until November 30th. Maybe the models are teasing everyone? Or maybe more surprises are on the horizon. If anything does indeed form, let's hope it will be far away from any land, and just something to discuss and appreciate, mother nature doing what she does.

Oh there’s definitely a signal for another storm in the Caribbean. EPS is also pretty aggressive

Solid signal on both ensembles. Obviously, intensity is a toss-up, but it shows that the ceiling is once again high.

https://i.imgur.com/w7ukcnD.png
https://i.imgur.com/C8jYYSI.png

Thanks WB, so this is about 10 days out?

[Pasmorade]

Seeing how this season made an insane recovery and is at at the edge of hyperactivity, what will 2025 hold?

[underthwx]

Seeing how this season made an insane recovery and is at at the edge of hyperactivity, what will 2025 hold?

Great question! I'm wondering that as well. Perhaps this season is the beginning of something, possibly as a result of changes in weather patterns? Who knows? One season does not a trend make, but like you ask, what will we see in 2025?

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1854885073390125319

[SFLcane]

Oh there’s definitely a signal for another storm in the Caribbean. EPS is also pretty aggressive

Solid signal on both ensembles. Obviously, intensity is a toss-up, but it shows that the ceiling is once again high.

https://i.imgur.com/w7ukcnD.png
https://i.imgur.com/C8jYYSI.png

Thanks WB, so this is about 10 days out?

The signal for development is more like 150-180hrs.. any threats " if any" to Florida,Cuba is yes 8-10 days out. I bet something develops the gfs has been excellent picking out long range stuff this season.

[underthwx]

Solid signal on both ensembles. Obviously, intensity is a toss-up, but it shows that the ceiling is once again high.

https://i.imgur.com/w7ukcnD.png
https://i.imgur.com/C8jYYSI.png

Thanks WB, so this is about 10 days out?

The signal for development is more like 150-180hrs.. any threats " if any" to Florida,Cuba is yes 8-10 days out. I bet something develops the gfs has been excellent picking out long range stuff this season.

I think so too, based upon the accuracy of the models detecting development that far out this season. I wonder when, or how much longer these signals will continue? I will not be surprised to see activity during December. It's been like a broken record here on this thread, over and over, the models detect yet another system possible, I'm a believer, my question is, what are the weather patterns going to be like? Will the environment be compatible for a cyclone to develop? And, where will it track to? Yall are in the know about these things, as the technology behind long-range forecasting improves season to season, for long-range forecasting. To me, this is the part of tropical weather that fascinates me the most. The ability to look ahead, with incredible accuracy, the formation of a cyclone.

[SFLcane]

Thanks WB, so this is about 10 days out?

The signal for development is more like 150-180hrs.. any threats " if any" to Florida,Cuba is yes 8-10 days out. I bet something develops the gfs has been excellent picking out long range stuff this season.

I think so too, based upon the accuracy of the models detecting development that far out this season. I wonder when, or how much longer these signals will continue? I will not be surprised to see activity during December. It's been like a broken record here on this thread, over and over, the models detect yet another system possible, I'm a believer, my question is, what are the weather patterns going to be like? Will the environment be compatible for a cyclone to develop? And, where will it track to? Yall are in the know about these things, as the technology behind long-range forecasting improves season to season, for long-range forecasting. To me, this is the part of tropical weather that fascinates me the most. The ability to look ahead, with incredible accuracy, the formation of a cyclone.

Another 1-2 storms is certainly possible next 10-15 days after that the basin will turn hostile and that’s probably the end of it.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1854901002656165938

[chaser1]

Welcome to a SPECIAL EDITION of the GFS Happy Hour extravaganza
One guess for the absolute safest place to be on November 20, 2024

06z gfs again but stronger into SFL with a major into Cuba before that.

I did see that, with the time-line moving forward as well. We'll see LOL. Can GFS go 3 model runs in a row with this?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

12z GFS again smacks the FL peninsula.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop:

[SFLcane]

Eps perking up...