Texas Fall 2024

[CaptinCrunch]

Maybe today DFW area will see the rain. Been pretty much a bust as far as coverage goes. Only 1 shower yesterday and that was across Denton.

West Texas needs to share the wealth

[jasons2k]

It’s not every day when the front has such a north-south orientation. On Satellite loops, you can see the cold air just plowing down the Rio Grande south of Del Rio.

[Brent]

Well at least it's raining now

My friends back east haven't seen hardly any since September and were way warmer than us yesterday

[Stratton23]

Its 10 days out but the GFS has a strong bowling ball upper low digging really far south ejecting out of mexico before crossing central texas, if that had any cold air with it, that would be a great set up for a snow event lol

[rwfromkansas]

Tornado watch just issued for DFW.

Since I haven't been paying attention much, is this actually a decent severe weather risk? Or is it like the other day where they cancel the watch in a few hours?

[DallasAg]

Tornado watch just issued for DFW.

Since I haven't been paying attention much, is this actually a decent severe weather risk? Or is it like the other day where they cancel the watch in a few hours?

And just like that warnings are starting to fire to the W and NW. Convection seems to be ticking up pretty quickly to our SSW as well.

Been a gloomy, showery day in Dallas County. I've picked up 0.34" so far today on top of 3.15" so far this week. Doesn't feel like a severe wx type of day, but that doesn't necessarily mean much!

[utpmg]

Some heavy rains way up the Colorado watershed, Pecan Bayou just south of Abiline. 6"+ over the past couple days. Much less over the balance of the Colorado, but a little going on now. Every bit helps.

[rwfromkansas]

Watch canceled, but at least some rain coming still.

[Brent]

This rain is insane up here .. can it happen once this winter

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I am finally over an inch now for November, yay! That last storm added a quick .30. Some of the rains in the Big Country are impressive.

[Stratton23]

I have to say in my opinion i think the pattern is going to stay active through the rest of november , that -NAO in place really helps to force the storm track to stay to the south, if the GFS is correct, we could be looking be looking at a storm system every 6-7 days with a decent front, a huge far cry from the dry and hot pattern we were stuck in through all of october and the very start of november, i dont see widespread warmth ahead either

[Ntxw]

This rain is insane up here .. can it happen once this winter

Nope all this rain means warmer air (warmer air holds more water) . You want to be relatively dry in the cold season!

[Brent]

Wettest November on record here already

[CaptinCrunch]

Not much rain at all as front pushed through. Cells went north and south of me, had a brief 15 min shower and that was it.

Should be sunny tomorrow with a high around 70. For the next 7-10 days should be dry with above average temperatures by 5-10 degrees. Warmest looks to be Wednesday with a high in the upper 70s before falling back down to the lower 70s. Lows will range from upper 40s to mid 50s.

[Ntxw]

Medium to long range ENS (and Euro weeklies) retrogrades the Pacific ridge back to the Aleutians. While there may be ridging in the NAO and Atlantic Canada region, all we would be blocking is mild Pacific air. North-central Canada won't get very cold in that configuration. Getting close to writing off November for sig cold.

Euro weeklies do increase heights over the gulf of Alaska in early December, perhaps then.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw significant cold probably wont be a factor until the winter months, but wouldn’t rule off colder weather around thanksgiving just yet though, their are at least some hints that the EPO may go negative and be more of a player, op GFS been hinting at this this last few days, GEFS slowly starting to see at least more seasonal- cooler conditions a few days leading up to thanksgiving

[Stratton23]

If you want cold weather for thanksgiving down here, this is what you want to see, ive attached a link to the 18z GFS below , scroll to hours 288-312 to see the setup im talking about, just a few days before thanksgiving, classic -AO/-EPO/ -NAO look, could just be one run, but if you want cold, thats generally the 500 mb height pattern you want to see

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

[Ntxw]

If you want cold weather for thanksgiving down here, this is what you want to see, ive attached a link to the 18z GFS below , scroll to hours 288-312 to see the setup im talking about, just a few days before thanksgiving, classic -AO/-EPO/ -NAO look, could just be one run, but if you want cold, thats generally the 500 mb height pattern you want to see

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

While the 500mb flow looks decent, the surface isn't terribly "cold" even on the fantasy range. We should be approaching our initial first freezes and at best the air source on that map gets us to about normal lows (mid 40s.) This is of course entertaining very long range, while I agree at times 500mb looks nice but the air source is still rather mediocre. It's still cooler Pacific air.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

If you want cold weather for thanksgiving down here, this is what you want to see, ive attached a link to the 18z GFS below , scroll to hours 288-312 to see the setup im talking about, just a few days before thanksgiving, classic -AO/-EPO/ -NAO look, could just be one run, but if you want cold, thats generally the 500 mb height pattern you want to see

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

While the 500mb flow looks decent, the surface isn't terribly "cold" even on the fantasy range. We should be approaching our initial first freezes and at best the air source on that map gets us to about normal lows (mid 40s.) This is of course entertaining very long range, while I agree at times 500mb looks nice but the air source is still rather mediocre. It's still cooler Pacific air.

We may have our latest big frost and freeze on record coming up. Imo, of course

[Cpv17]

The CPC temp forecast is pretty much a torch for most of Texas over the next 2 weeks.