WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

WP, 94, 2024110800, , BEST, 0, 32N, 1559E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07NOV24 1800Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.6N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N
139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 071833Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING
TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.2N 174.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 168.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.1N
156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1). AND
1.B.(3).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

EPS 18Z the Philippines is pretty busy next week especially this one...

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 241108 0000 2.1N 156.9E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

Now non-warning TD by JMA

WWJP27 RJTD 090600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 149E NW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[Hayabusa]

TC warning

TD d
Issued at 2024/11/10 01:25 UTC
Analysis at 11/10 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E146°20′ (146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 11/10 12 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°20′ (10.3°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
Forecast for 11/11 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05′ (11.1°)
E140°25′ (140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 11/12 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55′ (12.9°)
E134°40′ (134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 11/13 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20′ (14.3°)
E129°20′ (129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 300 km (160 NM)
Forecast for 11/14 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55′ (15.9°)
E124°40′ (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 11/15 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°10′ (18.2°)
E120°50′ (120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 480 km (260 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 092000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092000Z-100600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091352ZNOV2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353ZNOV2024//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09NOV24 1200Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.1N 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 09NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 09NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.5N 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 149E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR AND A 1850Z HIMAWARI-9 IR
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN
ILL-DEFINED LLCC. JTWC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES DISSCERNABLE
TURNING AROUND A VORTEX WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN ALONG
A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE PHILLIPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.////
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

HFSA 18Z makes this a cat 4 before landfall

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z, Euro tracks over the tip of Northeastern Luzon but ensemble spread is still large

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 144.0E TO 14.0N 133.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 143.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 143.1E, APPROXIMATELY 211
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM,
CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 25
KTS IN THE SYSTEM'S WIND FIELD WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS FOR
NAVGEM, THE MODEL IS FORECASTING A SURFACE CIRCULATION SLIGHTLY LESS,
WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111330Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WDPN34 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 139.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 321 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W. THE JTWC FIX
ESTABLISHES THE FIRST POSITION WHILE THE DVORAK VALUES OF JTWC T1.5
BALANCED WITH THE JMA T2.0 (35KTS) RESULT IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED AT THE SOUTHEAST END
OF AN ACTIVE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON, WHERE TY 26W TORAJI IS NOW GOING ASHORE,
TO KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM IS POINTED THE SAME WAY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTOR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT. THE WATER VAPOR ALSO
REVEALS A GAPING DEARTH OF DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE
140TH MERIDIAN BUT 27W LOOKS TO BE COCOONING ITSELF FROM THE OUTER
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK. TD27W
EXISTS ALMOST DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A 593DM H500 HGT CENTER (THE BONIN
HIGH), WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. DUE TO THE EARLY STAGE OF THE STORM NO AUTOMATED
ASSESSMENTS ARE AVAILABLE YET BUT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
CONVINCING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A STABLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST THROUGH EAST ALONG THE 19TH THROUGH 23RD LATITUDES.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WILL BE DRIVEN ALONG A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS NOWHERE ELSE FOR IT TO GO. THE INITIAL
AIM POINT IS FOR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY STEADILY AT A ROUGHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
TRACK AND INTENSITY BUT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PHILIPPINES-LUZON STRAIT AREA THERE IS VERY POOR CONFIDENCE. LAND
INTERACTION OR LACK THEREOF, ALONG WITH THE EFFECTS OF MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE ARE TOO FAR OVER THE HORIZON TO SEE AT THIS POINT.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH SOME
SHOWING A TEXT-BOOK RECURVATURE AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
SCENARIO WHILE OTHERS SHOW A STRONG DECOUPLING WITH A SLOW DEATH OVER
THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. STAY TUNED, FOLKS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN LIKES THE RECURVATURE
SCENARIO WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE LIKES THE DECAPITATION AND FIZZLE
OUT ON A TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM, JUST LIKE THE PATHETIC WRETCH
FORMERLY KNOWN AS TYPHOON 24W IS DOING TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

JTWC already up to 40kts but JMA still TD

27W TWENTYSEVE 241111 1200 12.5N 136.5E WPAC 40 995

[Hayabusa]

Now Usagi

T2425(Usagi)
Issued at 2024/11/11 19:20 UTC
Analysis at 11/11 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30′ (12.5°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N220 km (120 NM)
S165 km (90 NM)

[Hayabusa]

STS since 03Z

T2425(Usagi)
Issued at 2024/11/12 06:40 UTC
Analysis at 11/12 06 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00′ (14.0°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N330 km (180 NM)
S220 km (120 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Vortical Hot tower is now starting to rotate around a forming eye.

[Hurricane2022]

[mrbagyo]

pinhole

[mrbagyo]

what would be the 12z intensity?
I wont be surprised if this go directly from Cat 1 to Cat 4
105 or 110 knots