WPAC: TORAJI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

[Monisae]

The Vertical Wind Shear will stay low before the landful, maybe a new cat-5 Typhoon is coming.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z

[mrbagyo]

Models are still modest on intensity but I think this has the potential to really bomb into Super typhoon status,

[Monisae]

Amazing images at 0905Z

[dexterlabio]

Amazing images at 0905Z
https://i.postimg.cc/kg3c1bh5/180808brd2118nemzjhhd0.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Tw70CNZ8/B05005-F9-A234243882-D9-AA393-F9-D16-FC.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/htTCcr7x/20241109-090509-wsfm-mwi-89-H-2km-WP262024-100pc-NRLMRY-cr100.jpg

Time for the models and agencies that use them to wake up

[doomhaMwx]

The rate at this is organizing/intensifying right now is crazy. SSMIS microwave scans taken just ~2 hours apart:

[dexterlabio]

Medium range forecasts kinda dropped the ball two times in a row, first with Yinxing and now this.

[Hayabusa]

Up to 50 kts

26W TORAJI 241109 1200 14.6N 130.1E WPAC 50 992

Rev to 55

26W TORAJI 241109 1200 14.7N 130.3E WPAC 55 990

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From 30 to 55 kts in one advisory. The ceiling could be rather high, especially with such a structure.

The country should now take Toraji seriously.

Definitely think all agencies should significantly revise their intensity forecasts upwards as it's only got 48 hours or so till landfall and folks might get caught off guard.

[Hayabusa]

Landfall intensity has been upped

[ElectricStorm]

This one concerns me quite a bit. Think this will become the next super typhoon before landfall. Unfortunately looks like it could be the same areas affected by Yinxing. And on top of that 94W and/or Man-yi behind it could be dangerous as well

[Hurricane2022]

26W TORAJI 241110 0000 15.1N 126.9E WPAC 60 980

HELLLLL

[Hayabusa]

HFSA 18Z makes this a cat 4 before landfall

[mrbagyo]

26W TORAJI 241110 0600 15.2N 125.3E WPAC 65 980

[mrbagyo]

26W TORAJI 241110 1200 15.6N 124.4E WPAC 75 979
CDO is rotating more vigorously now as seen on IR loop.

[Hayabusa]

JMA upgraded to Typhoon at 15Z

T2423(Toraji)
Issued at 2024/11/10 15:50 UTC
Analysis at 11/10 15 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°35′ (15.6°)
E123°40′ (123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Appears to have undergone some sort of EWRC and is now sporting quite a huge (~50km) eye on radar! Fortunately, the system is quickly running out of time over water.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://x.com/arielrojasPH/status/1855783010211352816




PAGASA's AWS in Dilasag, Aurora recorded a min SLP of 978.76 mb at 00:10Z in the edge of the eye/eyewall. Central pressure is likely between JTWC and JMA's estimates (970 and 980 mb, respectively).