ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

While developing storms have the "shrimp" look, this thing now looks like a Twinkie.

[underthwx]

I took a quick look at Rafael just now, and it actually is looking better than it did about 3 hours ago. Maybe it's just me, but he looks a bit better.

[xironman]

From the recon it looks like the center is in the process of reforming under the convection. Flight level wind shift and lower extraps than where the center should be 70 miles south

[NDG]

What is weird is that where the Recon found lower pressures along with stronger winds and a nice wind shift near 26N is the area where they were flying at around 5k feet, so is definitely not a mid level circulation.

[Buck]

Come on, Rafa. We just need 1.2 ACE to get us above the extremely active threshold. Of course, it could go up or down depending on TCRs.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1855292592004751455

[weeniepatrol]

Come on, Rafa. We just need 1.2 ACE to get us above the extremely active threshold. Of course, it could go up or down depending on TCRs.

0.6 units, now. That was a crazy rate of weakening, faster than even NHC forecast. Imagine Rafael only squeezes out another 0.4-0.5 and then no other systems form LOL

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Bones steps up to the microphone:

https://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

[wxman57]

Checking Gulf buoy 42001, that NHC said had 33kt wind, reported a 31 kt wind at 5:20am. There was a gust to 39 kts then. Wind currently 23 gusting 27 kts there. I'm not sure where they saw 33 kts.

[AJC3]

Checking Gulf buoy 42001, that NHC said had 33kt wind, reported a 31 kt wind at 5:20am. There was a gust to 39 kts then. Wind currently 23 gusting 27 kts there. I'm not sure where they saw 33 kts.

Standard Meteorological Data
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2014 09 11 16 50 120 5.0 6.0 0.6 6 4.2 134 1016.5 29.3 30.5 24.4 MM +0.3 MM
WDIR
Wind direction (the direction the wind is coming from in degrees clockwise from true N) during the same period used for WSPD. See Wind Averaging Methods
WSPD
Wind speed (m/s) averaged over an eight-minute period for buoys and a two-minute period for land stations. Reported Hourly. See Wind Averaging Methods.

I suspect they have access to 1-minute averaged data for winds.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/measdes.shtml#stdmet

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/wndav.shtml

[wxman57]

Checking Gulf buoy 42001, that NHC said had 33kt wind, reported a 31 kt wind at 5:20am. There was a gust to 39 kts then. Wind currently 23 gusting 27 kts there. I'm not sure where they saw 33 kts.

Standard Meteorological Data
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2014 09 11 16 50 120 5.0 6.0 0.6 6 4.2 134 1016.5 29.3 30.5 24.4 MM +0.3 MM
WDIR
Wind direction (the direction the wind is coming from in degrees clockwise from true N) during the same period used for WSPD. See Wind Averaging Methods
WSPD
Wind speed (m/s) averaged over an eight-minute period for buoys and a two-minute period for land stations. Reported Hourly. See Wind Averaging Methods.

I suspect they have access to 1-minute averaged data for winds.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/measdes.shtml#stdmet

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/wndav.shtml

There are standard WMO conversions for 1-min wind. While I wouldn't rule out the buoy reporting a 1-min 33kt wind in that one squall around 5:30am, Rafael has been weakening since then. It would not qualify for an upgrade to a depression at this point.

[AJC3]

Checking Gulf buoy 42001, that NHC said had 33kt wind, reported a 31 kt wind at 5:20am. There was a gust to 39 kts then. Wind currently 23 gusting 27 kts there. I'm not sure where they saw 33 kts.

Standard Meteorological Data
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2014 09 11 16 50 120 5.0 6.0 0.6 6 4.2 134 1016.5 29.3 30.5 24.4 MM +0.3 MM
WDIR
Wind direction (the direction the wind is coming from in degrees clockwise from true N) during the same period used for WSPD. See Wind Averaging Methods
WSPD
Wind speed (m/s) averaged over an eight-minute period for buoys and a two-minute period for land stations. Reported Hourly. See Wind Averaging Methods.

I suspect they have access to 1-minute averaged data for winds.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/measdes.shtml#stdmet

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/wndav.shtml

There are standard WMO conversions for 1-min wind. While I wouldn't rule out the buoy reporting a 1-min 33kt wind in that one squall around 5:30am, Rafael has been weakening since then. It would not qualify for an upgrade to a depression at this point.

The TCD was written by Andrew Hagen, who I've known for a fairly long time. Since he used to who work for StormGeo, I'm sure you know him better/longer than me. He doesn't strike me as one who would make such a mistake, but you could always ask him.

[wxman57]

Standard Meteorological Data
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2014 09 11 16 50 120 5.0 6.0 0.6 6 4.2 134 1016.5 29.3 30.5 24.4 MM +0.3 MM
WDIR
Wind direction (the direction the wind is coming from in degrees clockwise from true N) during the same period used for WSPD. See Wind Averaging Methods
WSPD
Wind speed (m/s) averaged over an eight-minute period for buoys and a two-minute period for land stations. Reported Hourly. See Wind Averaging Methods.

I suspect they have access to 1-minute averaged data for winds.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/measdes.shtml#stdmet

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/wndav.shtml

There are standard WMO conversions for 1-min wind. While I wouldn't rule out the buoy reporting a 1-min 33kt wind in that one squall around 5:30am, Rafael has been weakening since then. It would not qualify for an upgrade to a depression at this point.

The TCD was written by Andrew Hagen, who I've known for a fairly long time. Since he used to who work for StormGeo, I'm sure you know him better/longer than me. He doesn't strike me as one who would make such a mistake, but you could always ask him.

No, Andrew is a sharp guy. I've known him for a while. However, that observation was quite old by the time the 9am advisory was issued. He's fairly new to the operations team at NHC, so he may not have felt comfortable killing it at 9am.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricanes have hit Texas in November.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf

Hey, Ptarmigan! Haven't seen you here in a while. Maybe I just missed your posts. I remember Hurricane Jerry striking the Houston area in mid-November of 1989. I was riding a 100 mile bike ride out of Alvin the day before. Terrible headwind the past 30 miles heading east back to Alvin. I came in first on that ride. By mile 98, it was just me and one other guy left. He asked if that was the finish up ahead and I said I wasn't sure. He took off sprinting to get there first, with me on his wheel. I remember the look of defeat on his face as I passed him when he realized there was still one mile to go.

As for Rafael, it is important to note that no model has it at even tropical storm strength when it reaches the coast - either MX/TX or LA/MS. Strong wind shear across the NW Gulf should see to that. It is interesting that the EC and ICON show the west movement, but both dissipate it east of MX/TX early next week. I don't think we'll see a hurricane or even a TS into Texas if it tracks west. My new track has it weakening to a remnant low off the SE LA coast on Sunday morning. Once it moves north of 26N, the shear really hits it hard.

Recon just made its first pass through the center. May be a small area of 35kt wind on the NW side of the center, but pressure is up a bit overnight.

Yeah, October. Oops! No November storm has ever reached Texas. Recon obs support 50 kts, but over a very small area.

Hey WXMan57. I have not seen in you a while. A hurricane hit Galveston in November 1839.