WPAC: MAN-YI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Near dateliner

93W.INVEST

WP, 93, 2024110700, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1727E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

Now medium

ABPW10 PGTW 070700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/070700Z-080600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07NOV24 0000Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 269 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2N
174.7E, APPROXIMATELY 422 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro develops but weakens it later as a developing low southwest of it forms

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z, pretty busy for the Philippines...

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[Pasmorade]

Is this related to that low east of the Dateline which the NHC monitored a few days ago?

[Hayabusa]

Is this related to that low east of the Dateline which the NHC monitored a few days ago?

I believe that one was 91W now turned into 92W

[mrbagyo]

93W INVEST 241108 0000 10.1N 167.2E WPAC 20 1007

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 165.5E TO 16.4N 157.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 165.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED 11.3N 165.1E APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS MORE
OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE LATEST
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER EMERGING.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W AND GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090900Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06Z... only HWRF makes this a strong system in the next 5 days and a southerly track...

[Hayabusa]

Up to 25W and JMA TC warning

[Hayabusa]

Weakening in the later forecast but notes of possible re-intensification

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.4N 158.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM EAST OF TINIAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 25W (MAN-YI) AND ITS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION,
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM IS STILL
UTILIZING THE MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A
BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRETCHING NORTHWEST OF TS 25W. THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STRONGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, THEREFORE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS PRESENT, BUT WEAK. A 090528Z
F18 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PRESENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS PASS, AS WELL AS ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND PERSISTENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITIONING STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER STR TO THE
NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 090530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 090530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 090529Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 090640Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS
NEAR TAU 36, ANOTHER STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE, LEADING TS 25W ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITS WEST, IT WILL BE EXPOSED TO INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, REACHING 25-30 KTS BY TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL
INTERACT WITH A POCKET OF DRY AIR, FURTHER HINDERING ITS DEVELOPMENT
AT THAT STAGE, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
FORECAST PERIOD. AT TAU 72 THE SYSTEM STEERING PATTERN WILL DIRECT IT
ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 80 NM BY TAU 36 AND 200 NM BY TAU 72,
WITH ALL THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS FORECASTING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN WESTWARD AND THEN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO NEARLY 300 NM BY
THE TIME TS 25W PASSES THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, WITH MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO ROTA AND GUAM. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, BUT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS REFLECTING THE STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE INITIAL 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION
AROUND TAU 120, AS INDICATED BY HAFS, AS WELL AS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z, later ensemble forecasts show some intense re-intensification

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[Hayabusa]

EC-AIFS 06Z re-intensifies it to a TS in the later forecast and strikes Visayas

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z...some ensemble going sub 900

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z still some intense members

[Hayabusa]

HFSA 12Z maintains it as a TS after weakening and in the later forecast bombs it to a super typhoon

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And now... the GFS flips, dives Man-yi WSW, bombs out and keeps its intensity for much, much longer. Massive change from previous runs. Oh boy.

959 mb in TAU 90

[Hayabusa]

Latest JTWC forecast show keeping it alive throughout

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 152.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 400 NM EAST OF SAIPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE SHIELD SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE PAST EIGHT
HOURS WITH A NEW NUGGET OF CONVECTION RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE LLCC. THE BEST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE FIXED AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THAT CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS ANOTHER
FOREBODING SIGN--A GAPING DEARTH OF DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN THE STORM
AND THE
140TH MERIDIAN--BUT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS DOING A DECENT JOB COCOONING ITSELF FROM THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A REGION OF 12-18 KNOTS OF
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS
BASED ON FINAL-T NUMBERS AND AUTOMATED TOOLS FROM CIMSS RATHER THAN
CURRENT INTENSITIES. BOTH RJTD AND PGTW HAVE FINAL TS AT T2.5 AND
BOTH ADT AND AIDT ARE ALSO AT 35KTS. DMINT IS ALSO AT 33KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A STABLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST THROUGH EAST ALONG THE 19TH THROUGH 23RD LATITUDES.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 2000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE DISSIPATION OVER WATER SCENARIO
IN THE FAR RANGE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND A 120 HOUR FORECAST TRACK
RESTORED.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THERE ARE TWO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 25W FORECAST.
FIRST, THE TRACK HAS BEEN WALKING FURTHER SOUTH AND WHAT WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE A 6-12 HOUR JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST HAS NOW GONE
ON FOR FOUR CONSECUTIVE FIXES. THE RESULT IS RATHER THAN A TRACK
NORTH OF SAIPAN, TD 25W IS NOW EXPECTED TO SHOOT THE GAP BETWEEN
TINIAN AND ROTA. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED INTENSITY DURING THAT PASSAGE
REMAINS IN THE SMALL CRAFT TO LOW GALE FORCE RANGE. THE SECOND
ADJUSTMENT IS TO LET GO OF THE DISSIPATION OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
SCENARIO, WHICH IS EASY TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE FERTILE WATERS OF THAT
REGION. IT IS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE ALONG
ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT REMAIN ALIVE LONG ENOUGH TO
REINVIGORATE ITSELF ONCE IT RESUMES POLEWARD MOVEMENT ON THE LAST
LEG TOWARDS THE LUZON-TAIWAN AREA. AS THE STORM CROSSES THE
MARIANAS AND MOVES INTO A REGION OF LIGHTER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, IT
IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY RETURN ABOVE GALE FORCE SO LONG AS IT IS ABLE
TO CARRY DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CLINGS STUBBORNLY TO A RESUMPTION
OF A DUE WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE MARIANAS BUT UNTIL THAT TURN
MANIFESTS THE JTWC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
POLEWARD OUTLIERS NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC HAVE BEEN PULLING THE
CONSENSUS NORTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE
TRACK FORECAST, WITH A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AIDS. THE
USUALLY RELIABLE AND MORE ACCURATE HAFS-A CONTINUES TO SHOW SHARP
RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WHILE THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS SCATTERED. FNMOC OUTAGES CONTINUE TO DEPRIVE US OF
STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL AND SOME OF THE BEST COUPLED GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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