Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

There is a clear front a week before Thanksgiving showing up here... Nothing crazy(I mean it's November now) but something to watch

It needs to get inside of 200 hours and not 300. Also needs to be cold, if we're talking close to freezing Tulsa already did that mid October. Standards have been extremely low.

[Ntxw]

Within the 5-7 days we will be running mostly above normal, that's half of November that is anywhere from 5-7F+ above normal for most locations. So that long range cold never happened for the first half of the month.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx it is getting inside of 200 hours at least the initial front that kicks off this pattern change, looks to arrive around tge 17/18th or so, ensembles are starting to look better, I think this has more legitimacy to actually happen compared to earlier when that cold never verified, confidence is a bit better that this one will verify, albeit how cold is yet to be determined

[Ntxw]

Ntwx it is getting inside of 200 hours at least the initial front that kicks off this pattern change, looks to arrive around tge 17/18th or so, ensembles are starting to look better, I think this has more legitimacy to actually happen compared to earlier when that cold never verified, confidence is a bit better that this one will verify, albeit how cold is yet to be determined

I hope you are right. I'm not doubting the fronts, they are there and the 500mb flow is legit. What I'm consistently questioning is the quality of cold air.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx oh i agree about that, its going to take time to flush out the pacific air, but if we can get enough of a blocking pattern, we should be able to flush out at least some more chilly air compared to what we have experienced, GEPS/ EPS have a pretty good blocking pattern similar to the GEFS, thats why i have a little more confidence this is going to verify because its now not just one ensemble group showing that pattern

[Brent]

4 different posts about cold around the 20th just today

Well see. I'll believe it when I see it on being colder than October was

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has probably the most insane blocking pattern that ive ever seen lol

[snownado]

Temps overachieved by a good bit totday, with a high of 81*F at DFW...

[Ntxw]

A little longer out than I'd like for it to be, but 18z GFS is a good blocking pattern.

[Stratton23]

Now thats a cold GFS run haha

[Golfisnteasy7575]

There is a clear front a week before Thanksgiving showing up here... Nothing crazy(I mean it's November now) but something to watch

It needs to get inside of 200 hours and not 300. Also needs to be cold, if we're talking close to freezing Tulsa already did that mid October. Standards have been extremely low.

Do you think it's because the mjo is getting into colder phases for this time year reason models are showing colder?

[Stratton23]

thought the 18z gfs was cold? 00z GFS says hold my beer, has low 40’s for highs in se texas with upper 30’s for north texas

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A little longer out than I'd like for it to be, but 18z GFS is a good blocking pattern.

The sequence for the blocking pattern starts around the 96 hr mark too. Will it end up as wild as the GFS is saying? No clue, but the blocking looks to be coming around the 19th.

[Stratton23]

Very good agreement on the blocking pattern in all ensembles, they also keep the block intact for an extended period, i have high confidence in a switch to much colder weather for most of the central and eastern us

[CaptinCrunch]

There isn't any true cold air, and when I say cold I'm talking about sub zero Arctic air building up, yes there is cold air, but not what is needed. What I'm seeing is nothing more that your garden verity cold front (GFS on crack) So far November is warmer normal, which shouldn't be surprising with how October played out, and how the southern hemisphere had a record warm winter as well.

To be very honest, I don't see a cold winter for us, but I also don't think it's going to be a drier winter. It will get cold but nothing out of the ordinary, and yes, I even think we may see 1 or 2 winter events, but those will come well into January and early February.

On the bright side, it means lower energy and fuel cost for this winter, so get out and enjoy all the holiday events coming.

[Stratton23]

CaptinCrunch garden variety front? I mean models have been trending towards the GFS at least in terms of the block, and with the blocking pattern on the EPS/ GEPS id argue this front could have some big OOMP to it for November standards, but i also dont think the GFS is crazy on its colder solution , the GFS suggested this blocking pattern was going to happen, and all of the guidance has jumped on, the airmass isnt Arctic in origin, but it still could be much colder than what is projected, easily 25-30 degrees below average, even the ensembles are at a minimum 15 degrees or so below the average high, wouldn’t be surprised to see alot of 40’s and 50’s for highs in texas beyond the 20th

[Ntxw]

What I consider really cold in November is back in 2019. Below zero in the northern plains, singles in the central plains and panhandles of TX/OK. Don't see that right now but what we may get (according to the GFS) is high blocking and ULL getting trapped shoving whatever air is to the north which is above normal for Canada, but enough to be chilly for us. Still got plenty of time to watch as it's a week+ out type ordeal.

The blocking pattern is pretty good, it's the surface. You need both to deliver a really cold air mass.

[Brent]

An OKC TV station has mentioned the coldest air of the season and even the S word

[Ntxw]

An OKC TV station has mentioned the coldest air of the season and even the S word

The past week we've seen a deepening storm in New Mexico and Colorado. With the Atlantic side blocky would not be surprised if another event in the same areas, and maybe slightly further east. Hope this is the trend for winter with systems slowing down and intensifying over the southern Rockies and southern plains.

[jasons2k]

CaptinCrunch garden variety front? I mean models have been trending towards the GFS at least in terms of the block, and with the blocking pattern on the EPS/ GEPS id argue this front could have some big OOMP to it for November standards, but i also dont think the GFS is crazy on its colder solution , the GFS suggested this blocking pattern was going to happen, and all of the guidance has jumped on, the airmass isnt Arctic in origin, but it still could be much colder than what is projected, easily 25-30 degrees below average, even the ensembles are at a minimum 15 degrees or so below the average high, wouldn’t be surprised to see alot of 40’s and 50’s for highs in texas beyond the 20th

To be honest, those of us who have lived in Texas for a long time consider this "garden variety." 40’s and 50’s for highs in Late November is nothing. At least it used to not be, back before summer extended 'till almost Thanksgiving...

Look up the Sleet Bowl in 1993. That's a real November cold blast. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/thesleetbow ... er25th1993