Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Texas Snowman]

Now that it is meteorological fall, winter has next game!

[davidiowx]

Is it gonna snow since a Hurricane made landfall?

[TropicalTundra]

YAY!!

[Stratton23]

Im hearing talk that the PV maybe a lot weaker this winter compared to last winter when it was mostly strong and kept most of the big arctic air locked up, if its mostly weaker like what im hearing, that could throw a big wrench into winter forecasts

[Texas Snow]

Howdy everybody! I’m just setting up my new iPad today and the links didn’t copy so was adding this page as a favorite again and what a great surprise to see that I logged in for page one of what we all hope will be an amazing winter. Can’t wait! Looking forward to good times with all of you again. Now if we can just get summer out of fall first…

[Sambucol2024]

Im hearing talk that the PV maybe a lot weaker this winter compared to last winter when it was mostly strong and kept most of the big arctic air locked up, if its mostly weaker like what im hearing, that could throw a big wrench into winter forecasts

Meaning we will have more cold air down here rather than last year possibly?

[Wthrfan]

Still nice and toasty but the chill will come soon! Time to start following this fun little thread for a few months!

[Brent]

I'm just gonna keep telling myself that it can't be any worse than the last two winters... Until it isn't again

[Iceresistance]

I don't like the cooler temperatures near Alaska, might be not good for the first half of this winter


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/SO33X.png

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance id rather have a back loaded winter, last year was front loaded, and then january-march was just miserable

[Golfisnteasy7575]

If we get a neutral enso instead of niña, it would seem like we could get more frequent cold shots here, but Niña is usually more intense. I know we need to rain, but thinking way ahead. We don't average much snow and ice anyways, but one storm can change that. Definitely the right trough ridge alignment is important. What webber said yesterday makes alot of sense, despite it being neutral, niño, or niña.

[Ntxw]

The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.

[Tireman4]

The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.

And Larry Cosgrove echoed almost everything Ntwx stated..( they are both in agreement)..

Blocking Signatures At High Latitudes Do Not Always Translate To Arctic Intrusions....
But a -NAO signature showing up across Greenland and the Davis Strait may shake the pattern up enough to allow for buckling of the jet stream. If a ridge at high latitudes occurs by itself, there may or may not be a corresponding cAk regime build-up that would have a mechanism to move southward. All that shows currently is a tendency for strong storms digging into the West. What follows is a cool or cold western North America against a warm central/eastern continental set-up. In order for a more likely colder scenario to the right of the Rocky Mountains, other positions such as -EPO, +PNA and -AO ridge positions must occur. It is possible that the emerging block heading into far northeastern Canada may at some point retrogress into a positive height anomaly allied with the negative Arctic Oscillation. That realignment might just do the trick allowing for colder plumes to reach the lower 48 states. But such a development and result is not yet evident on the numerical model guidance (although the analog method favors an eventual Alaska/Yukon to Baffin Island ridge complex.
There are still some tropical implications we should keep looking at. Hurricane Rafael will likely break up over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with its moisture pulled into a storm and frontal structure moving through the south central states. The main complication: very heavy rainfall and severe weather threats in parts of East Texas and Louisiana early next week. It is entirely possible that a typhoon could arise from the convective field associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phases 7, 8 over the equatorial Pacific Basin. Unlike the current Typhoon Yinxing over the South China Sea (headed for Vietnam), Invest 93W might head north and link/merge with the polar westerlies and vortex near the Aleutian Islands. Should that or some other disturbance transition into a "typhoon injection syndrome" case, then a major cold shot from northern Canada into lower latitudes of the U.S. will happen.
But do not count on that happening anytime soon.

[wxman22]

The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.

Wouldn't surprise me if we saw an ice storm this winter if the SE ridge sticks around and we end up in the "battlezone" between the ridge and western trough.

[Iceresistance]

The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.

Colorado got absolutely walloped with the first winter storm, Denver may have got 20 inches of snow already

[Wthrfan]

Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

[Iceresistance]

Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO

[Sambucol]

Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO

Was winter 2021 a la nina winter because we had the Winter Apocalypse in Texas in February 2021 that took down our grid. Statewide event.

[TomballEd]

Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO

Was winter 2021 a la nina winter because we had the Winter Apocalypse in Texas in February 2021 that took down our grid. Statewide event.

Winter 2020-21 was a cool ENSO 'La Nina' winter.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord 12z GFS, 576 dm ridge in Canada!? Then a blocking pattern over all of Canada??