Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

CaptinCrunch garden variety front? I mean models have been trending towards the GFS at least in terms of the block, and with the blocking pattern on the EPS/ GEPS id argue this front could have some big OOMP to it for November standards, but i also dont think the GFS is crazy on its colder solution , the GFS suggested this blocking pattern was going to happen, and all of the guidance has jumped on, the airmass isnt Arctic in origin, but it still could be much colder than what is projected, easily 25-30 degrees below average, even the ensembles are at a minimum 15 degrees or so below the average high, wouldn’t be surprised to see alot of 40’s and 50’s for highs in texas beyond the 20th

To be honest, those of us who have lived in Texas for a long time consider this "garden variety." 40’s and 50’s for highs in Late November is nothing. At least it used to not be, back before summer extended 'till almost Thanksgiving...

Look up the Sleet Bowl in 1993. That's a real November cold blast. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/thesleetbow ... er25th1993

What the GFS is showing is a deepening bowling ball low (not saying the exact same but semantics) rolling through the central US, not all that different than those maps for 1993. The big difference is there isn't sub 500dm at 500mb Arctic circle air pumping cold like back then.

[Stratton23]

Jasons2k fair enough, id just consider it a true cold front, given how warm we have been, and this is probably going to be one of those fronts thats going to make a-lot of folks sick due to models showing a large temperature gradient , either way its a much welcome change of pace from the warmth we have seen, good news is that kind of front should kill off the mosquitoes, because boy those have been an issue lately ateast here locally

[Ntxw]

The takeaway I think is the systems. We need them for rain, and to be digging where they are is a good sign for winter. The fast flow of of the recent winters is just boring.

[Stratton23]

CMC digs the trough out more to the west before getting stuck by blocking, appears to be setting up a winter storm for west texas and the panhandle, GFS more to the east, but trough gets stuck over the central US due to the monsterous blocking in canada, still a cold run

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The takeaway I think is the systems. We need them for rain, and to be digging where they are is a good sign for winter. The fast flow of of the recent winters is just boring.

https://i.imgur.com/sb9kXeD.png

Last January we had that ssw event and that helped us get cold for about a week and that was pretty much end of winter. If it wasn't for that, we wouldn't have had any cold air last winter

[Golfisnteasy7575]

CaptinCrunch garden variety front? I mean models have been trending towards the GFS at least in terms of the block, and with the blocking pattern on the EPS/ GEPS id argue this front could have some big OOMP to it for November standards, but i also dont think the GFS is crazy on its colder solution , the GFS suggested this blocking pattern was going to happen, and all of the guidance has jumped on, the airmass isnt Arctic in origin, but it still could be much colder than what is projected, easily 25-30 degrees below average, even the ensembles are at a minimum 15 degrees or so below the average high, wouldn’t be surprised to see alot of 40’s and 50’s for highs in texas beyond the 20th

To be honest, those of us who have lived in Texas for a long time consider this "garden variety." 40’s and 50’s for highs in Late November is nothing. At least it used to not be, back before summer extended 'till almost Thanksgiving...

Look up the Sleet Bowl in 1993. That's a real November cold blast. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/thesleetbow ... er25th1993

What the GFS is showing is a deepening bowling ball low (not saying the exact same but semantics) rolling through the central US, not all that different than those maps for 1993. The big difference is there isn't sub 500dm at 500mb Arctic circle air pumping cold like back then.

We need to really focus, imo, on the pdo. It's risen somewhat, but we still have a ways to go. Also, the epo. Nobody gets cold with it being positive lol

[Ntxw]

To be honest, those of us who have lived in Texas for a long time consider this "garden variety." 40’s and 50’s for highs in Late November is nothing. At least it used to not be, back before summer extended 'till almost Thanksgiving...

Look up the Sleet Bowl in 1993. That's a real November cold blast. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/thesleetbow ... er25th1993

What the GFS is showing is a deepening bowling ball low (not saying the exact same but semantics) rolling through the central US, not all that different than those maps for 1993. The big difference is there isn't sub 500dm at 500mb Arctic circle air pumping cold like back then.

We need to really focus, imo, on the pdo. It's risen somewhat, but we still have a ways to go. Also, the epo. Nobody gets cold with it being positive lol

La Ninas with rising pdo (doesn't have to be positive) can be good. We did just go through some decent mjo phases. I'm hoping this blocking regime continues through winter over the Atlantic.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Currently, there is hardly any snow cover in Alberta. This needs to change for big cold blasts to come down. It is November, and it could. This blocking pattern has my full attention. Its going to cause chaos and cooler wether for the plains and southern plains, but curious to see how it all plays out.

[Ntxw]

Currently, there is hardly any snow cover in Alberta. This needs to change for big cold blasts to come down. It is November, and it could. This blocking pattern has my full attention. Its going to cause chaos and cooler wether for the plains and southern plains, but curious to see how it all plays out.

Luckily for you guys there is elevation. You don't really need air that cold, just big storms that sit and bring easterly/southerly, southeasterly flow for snow! It's been a blockbuster start for the southern Rockies.

[Yukon Cornelius]

8.16” this month so far.

[Stratton23]

EPS guidance has the EPO taking a huge nosedive negative after the 19th

[Golfisnteasy7575]

EPS guidance has the EPO taking a huge nosedive negative after the 19th

That's good news. Can you post a chart Stratton23?

[Stratton23]

Here is link below to EPS forecast for the EPO

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/oscil ... e-nhem-avg

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Here is link below to EPS forecast for the EPO

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/oscil ... e-nhem-avg

Can you take screenshot and post it here? Or copy and paste from weatherbell? It requires a subscription to view materials

[Brent]

More posts about much colder air here

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Currently, there is hardly any snow cover in Alberta. This needs to change for big cold blasts to come down. It is November, and it could. This blocking pattern has my full attention. Its going to cause chaos and cooler wether for the plains and southern plains, but curious to see how it all plays out.

Luckily for you guys there is elevation. You don't really need air that cold, just big storms that sit and bring easterly/southerly, southeasterly flow for snow! It's been a blockbuster start for the southern Rockies.

I'm pulling for you guys though! One way or another, I will get my snow. This coming pattern may bring some snow for me but nothing outrageous.

Easterly and northeasterly winds really bring in the strong upslope flow. I received about 15" in the storm last week. Most of it has melted away since i currently sit at 65 degrees!

[Stratton23]

18z GFS colder again, man that block really locks the cold air right over the central US for at least a week, maybe longer

[Stratton23]

00z CMC actually tries to show a rain/snow mix for north texas lol

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS colder again, man that block really locks the cold air right over the central US for at least a week, maybe longer

I've never seen such a nuclear blocking pattern before

[Yukon Cornelius]

What time period are we talking about?