Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[Steve]

This is so surreal... If it wasn't for other model support I'd think the GFS is just trolling us at this point. But ICON, CMC, and Euro are all onboard as well. If it's going to form and be bad girl, at least Jefferson Starship wrote the perfect song for it many years ago... Sara, Sara, storms are brewin in your eyes.

They’re taking the MJO into account. Bias corrected EC and Australian and then the Climate model (CFS) have Phase 3 around the 20th/21st. CFS has been most bullish for weeks but I don’t much follow it. Hammy is the one who does. However, if these are correct 10 days out, look out SW FL.

[caneseddy]

Canadian into Tampa Bay as a high end TS

[caneseddy]

00z Euro bombs out at 928 in the Yucatán Channel and then swings ENE into Cuba and then heads east over Cuba

[MarioProtVI]

When the GFS and Euro both have sub-935, the ceiling is very high, and this could end up doing what Iota tried to do but “officially” couldn’t. 00z EPS gonna be wild.

[chaser1]

Sara could seriously be bad Juju for Florida or Cuba. After the region has seen hurricanes, tornadoes, and major earthquakes.....what's next, an asteroid?

[GCANE]

A very warm Loop Current and a very cold upper troposphere.
A deadly combination.

[FireRat]

Imagine that y'all, a legit hurricane threat for South Florida in Late November, just days before the season ends!!
Unreal, and quite fitting for 2024.

[kevin]

Ensembles are very aggressive with this system. 45 out of 51 (88%) 00z Euro members develop the system within 48 hours. 26 out of 31 (84%) 00z GEFS members do the same within 48 hours. As such I'd personally put development chances closer to 70/90 or 80/90 than the current 20/60. The most recent 06z ICON already has a 1006 mb system within 48 hours and 991 mb within 120 hours. If today's 06z and 12z GFS and Euro ensembles are similar I also expect NHC to start an invest and to up the chances to something around 50/80 or 60/80.

Euro

Also that one member landfalling north of TB as a MH would probably result in a bigger surge than they had with Milton. Extremely unlikely, but crazy that it's even a remote possibility in mid-November.


GEFS

[kevin]

06z GFS isn't backing down .
Edit: peaks at 929 mb later in the run and remains around the 929 - 932 mb pressure for at least 24 hours (run isn't finished yet).

[jlauderdal]

A very warm Loop Current and a very cold upper troposphere.
A deadly combination.

Shear looking minimal, very far out but no help there knocking this thing back.

[kevin]

06z GFS, Bradenton/Sarasota landfall because why not...

[cycloneye]

06z GFS isn't backing down .
Edit: peaks at 929 mb later in the run and remains around the 929 - 932 mb pressure for at least 24 hours (run isn't finished yet).

https://i.imgur.com/rA8klhY.png

This run is to Tampa, Sarasota.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS isn't backing down .
Edit: peaks at 929 mb later in the run and remains around the 929 - 932 mb pressure for at least 24 hours (run isn't finished yet).

https://i.imgur.com/rA8klhY.png

This run is to Tampa, Sarasota.

https://i.imgur.com/cuZLMXl.png

Looks south of Tampa…

[SFLcane]

What is this madness?..

[xironman]

Only caught half of it, but a legit spin going on.

[caneman]

06z GFS isn't backing down .
Edit: peaks at 929 mb later in the run and remains around the 929 - 932 mb pressure for at least 24 hours (run isn't finished yet).

https://i.imgur.com/rA8klhY.png

This run is to Tampa, Sarasota.

https://i.imgur.com/cuZLMXl.png

Looks south of Tampa…

Wind wise, the effects would be nearly the same North of Sarasota in Tampa plus if it it's moving NORTHEAST. Milton proved that.

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

The entire model suite now shows slightly early development and an eastward turn right before it runs into Central America. Things can still change, but if that holds, we’re probably getting yet another November major.

Starting to think Sara might be another one-and-done name this season…

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Bad sign when the Euro, CMC, GFS, ICON, and somehow even the Korean model all are in agreement here.

[kevin]

06z is the most aggressive GFS ensemble yet with many US impacts. 10 out of the 31 members (32%) either landfall in the US or are about to do so in this image.