ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2024111218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 765W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al732024 to al992024

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992024.dat

[kevin]

Here we go, could become a dangerous hurricane. Let's hope the worst-case scenarios won't become reality.

[WaveBreaking]

This could be the start of yet another long thread during this exhausting season. Hoping that this’ll be the last one for the year.

[aspen]

Potentially one last big storm to close out this weird, destructive, and honestly kinda frustrating season.

As I’ve harped on multiple times the last few days, tiny differences in 99L’s short term track are going to have huge implications down the line. Its stall will be very close to Central America, and if it goes further west (possibly weaker short-term solutions), then it’ll run over land and may not become much. If it develops faster and stays offshore, those GFS runs with a strong hurricane into Florida might verify. The key difference may only be a hundred miles or so. It’s gonna be very close.

[Beef Stew]

Surprised this took so long to get tagged. This feels like something we'd be tracking in early October, much less mid-November. Nothing's even close to set in stone yet, but given the potential synoptic pattern and the way this season's been going, SFL definitely needs to keep a wary eye on this.

[AutoPenalti]

This one is making me feel a bit uneasy, the last time I felt that way was Irma.

[TomballEd]

Hoping Caribbean (maybe to the Gulf) hurricanes in November doesn't become a thing.

[psyclone]

We just need wxman57 to drop by for his patented ice bucket dump

[GCANE]

Got a feeling I'll be smoking many late-night cigars with this one.

[fllawyer]

As we saw with Rafael, many models were way off 7+ days out due to difficulty of predicting future steering conditions. Decent cold front expected in Florida end of this week and what looks to be an even stronger one next weekend. Timing will be important here. Shear map shows GOM is fairly unfavorable, hope that continues.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I am supposed to be in SW FL on the 25th. I hope this is gone with little damage by then

[TomballEd]

Assuming it does make it into the Gulf, with GFS and Canadian showing pretty favorable shear in the E Gulf in a week, the big question is how much time does it spend over the Yucatan, if any? The GFS has a near worst case scenario of passing through the Yucatan Channel, missing Cuba and Mexico

[chris_fit]

As we saw with Rafael, many models were way off 7+ days out due to difficulty of predicting future steering conditions. Decent cold front expected in Florida end of this week and what looks to be an even stronger one next weekend. Timing will be important here. Shear map shows GOM is fairly unfavorable, hope that continues.

Ah yes, the cold front. In the Tampa area, we'll be going from smashing daily high records to just 'above average' by this weekend.

[chaser1]

We just need wxman57 to drop by for his patented ice bucket dump

..... in time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

AccuWeather



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=yy_F7f4KgtA

[emeraldislenc]

We have lots of great meteorologist on this Board. It will be good to hear from all of them!

[chaser1]

So, just a couple of thoughts-

I don't believe that this will develop as a result of merging with a CAG; Perhaps moreso "induced" by a CAG that develops? Firstly, the broad nature of a Central American gyre would generally require a larger time frame to consolidate which the GFS suggests will occur far quicker. I do see the lifting of rich low level moisture being drawn northward from the EPAC & C. America being key toward aiding surface convergence.

One thing not brought up yet that may be a big factor whether this potential storm comes in as a Cat 1/2 or a major hurricane, is the forward speed of motion prior to landfall. A storm could easily weaken under light southwest shear and cooling GOM SST's . The flip side could be a scenario where a fast forward motion could negate any light shear as well as lessen the span of time between a very warm Caribbean and a potential Naples to Ft. Lauderdale track (just my hunch).

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

Hopefully we'll hear Levi's thoughts on 99L this evening.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Very good video explains the possibilities, not feeling to good about this here in the Keys.