ATL: SARA - Models

[mcheer23]

Models here

[CFLHurricane]

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/Jvdvc0A[/imgur]

Yeah, sure, why not

(12z GFS bisects Florida peninsula with a major hurricane from Sarasota to Vero Beach)

[Jr0d]

Now that we have an invest, hopefully the hurricane models will come to an agreement.
If it does end up in the Gulf, I doubt it will make as far north as some of the models have shown but who knows. This season climatology has been thrown out.

[Travorum]

First SHIPS forecast is bullish and could have significant effects for Honduras/Nicaragua in the shorter term. The MPI for this thing is crazy for November.

[kevin]

12z GFS intensity if you use Dvorak to convert from pressure to wind speed.
Total ACE from 99L = 32.7

Timestamp (hr) / Pressure (mb) / Wind speed (kt)
36 / 1005 / 35 - TS
42 / 1003 / 40
48 / 1002 / 40
54 / 998 / 45
60 / 993 / 55
66 / 990 / 60
72 / 984 / 65 - C1
78 / 972 / 85 - C2
84 / 968 / 90
90 / 962 / 100 - C3
96 / 957 / 105
102 / 952 / 110
108 / 950 / 115
114 / 946 / 115 - C4
120 / 942 / 120
126 / 938 / 125
132 / 937 / 125
138 / 943 / 120
144 / 944 / 120
150 / 942 / 120
156 / 943 / 120
162 / 943 / 120
168 / 942 / 120
174 / 946 / 115
180 / 948 / 115
186 / 952 / 110
192 / 956 / 105
198 / 959 / 105 - Florida landfall
204 / 965 / 95
210 / 966 / 95
216 / 974 / 85
222 / 977 / 80
228 / 985 / 65
234 / 990 / 60
240 / 995 / 55 - post-tropical

[kevin]

18z should, if I understand correctly, also contain the hurricane models for 99L. Very curious what they will show.

[SFLcane]

[CrazyC83]

As we have learned over the years, you can't trust climatology.

One other thing: if the trough is faster and Sara a little stronger, it could easily result in a Sandy-like epic phasing of the two systems and Sara could be drawn up the east coast. It's plausible at this point.

[SFLcane]

Were is it going?

[CrazyC83]

Were is it going?

https://i.postimg.cc/44VsGwzS/ffff.png

Those northern lines are a separate extratropical low, which I've seen some models bring down to about 970 mb. (Could it get low enough to take on subtropical characteristics?)

[WaveBreaking]

As we have learned over the years, you can't trust climatology.

One other thing: if the trough is faster and Sara a little stronger, it could easily result in a Sandy-like epic phasing of the two systems and Sara could be drawn up the east coast. It's plausible at this point.

A powerful Mid-November hurricane that phases with a trough and becomes a hybrid/nor'easter-type storm while causing extensive damage to the East Coast would be a fitting end to this season.

[gatorcane]

Wow the Euro brings a very cold airmass (much below normal for a change) down into the SE US and Florida in the wake of the storm. If there are power outages, at least it won't be hot, the cold would be the issue.

[jlauderdal]

Wow the Euro brings a very cold airmass (much below normal for a change) down into the SE US and Florida in the wake of the storm. If there are power outages, at least it won't be hot, the cold would be the issue.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhX0TzBv/ec-fast-T850a-seus-fh168-240.gif

Wilma redux with the chilly post hurricane weather. Total darkness with crisp weather was an oddity after its passage.

[SouthFLTropics]

That potential cold air spilling in behind it is almost identical to Wilma. I remember having to go out and do inspections on the roadways right after Wilma passed. The winds were still blowing between 30 and 40 miles per hour. When I walked out of the front door of my house I almost froze. I had to go back in and get a jacket. When this thing takes off to the Northeast it is going to be racing. Any possible weakening of the storm on approach to the SW Florida coast would probably be offset by the front enhancing the effects. Just like Wilma, 19 years later.

[Nuno]

Wow the Euro brings a very cold airmass (much below normal for a change) down into the SE US and Florida in the wake of the storm. If there are power outages, at least it won't be hot, the cold would be the issue.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhX0TzBv/ec-fast-T850a-seus-fh168-240.gif

How cold is that for SFL?

[mcheer23]

Wow the Euro brings a very cold airmass (much below normal for a change) down into the SE US and Florida in the wake of the storm. If there are power outages, at least it won't be hot, the cold would be the issue.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhX0TzBv/ec-fast-T850a-seus-fh168-240.gif

How cold is that for SFL?

Low 50's

[chaser1]

Wow the Euro brings a very cold airmass (much below normal for a change) down into the SE US and Florida in the wake of the storm. If there are power outages, at least it won't be hot, the cold would be the issue.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhX0TzBv/ec-fast-T850a-seus-fh168-240.gif

How cold is that for SFL?

I'd guess mid 70's for highs, low 60's for lows for the Metro areas. Few degrees cooler a bit more inland. Keep in mind that the EURO is a bit faster with the front then the GFS

[tolakram]

https://imgur.com/a/Jvdvc0A

Yeah, sure, why not

(12z GFS bisects Florida peninsula with a major hurricane from Sarasota to Vero Beach)

For animated GIFS you have to use the BBCODE links, otherwise it's a video and can't be embedded here. Only GIFS have this issue with IMGUR

[caneseddy]

18z Icon only goes out to Sunday but has a slowly intensifying hurricane just meandering off the north coast of Honduras a la Mitch

[kevin]

18z slightly more north than 12z and narrowly avoids landfall. As such, it is stronger over the next 120 hours than 12z. Beyond the 120 hour runtime of 18z this scenario would probably still result in a Beliza/Mexico landfall.