ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Im surprised there isnt a 5pm update from NHC regarding this system, but I suppose not much has changed.

It's not a PTC or TC so there wouldn't be a 5pm update; only 7am, 1pm, 7pm, and 1am.

I think this could be a PTC by tomorrow morning. Jamaica may need TS advisories if this develops quick.

[TomballEd]

I thought an above normal NS season wasn't happening during the dormant part of August.

I was wrong.

[xironman]

Any recent ASCAT to see how is the structure?

Look for the ascending pass a bit after midnight But who knows if it hits https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TCData.php

[cycloneye]

Im surprised there isnt a 5pm update from NHC regarding this system, but I suppose not much has changed.

It's not a PTC or TC so there wouldn't be a 5pm update; only 7am, 1pm, 7pm, and 1am.

I think this could be a PTC by tomorrow morning. Jamaica may need TS advisories if this develops quick.

Recon will go in the afternoon and may find a TD or maybe a TS if trends of organization that are occuring tonight continue.

[wxman57]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

[johngaltfla]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Hopefully is correct. 3 is enough.

[Blown Away]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Multiple MH hits near Big Bend and recently Milton near Sarasota… A lot of low probability spots taking landfalls recently…

[DESTRUCTION5]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Climo aside what's your thoughts on endgame?

[psyclone]

The whole situation is so absurd... I have to see it to believe it. Even a non major cane into south Florida this late is insane. Just playing the climo odds.. has me looking for reasons this won't happen. Nevertheless I'd keep a wary eye...especially if your local nws is Key West or Miami. My "worry-o-meter" up here in Tampa Bay is clocking a solid 0.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on 99L. I am actually feeling bullish about this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25HhgB1eLr0

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2024111300, , BEST, 0, 168N, 767W, 20, 1007, DB

[Jr0d]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Based on water temps I can't imagine anywhere else but the Keys getting a cat 3... especially given a storm moving NE will likely be getting sheared as well.

But who knows perhaps if it aligns itself just right with the frontal system the barocyclinic forcing will prevail over colder nearshore water temps.

I really don't know, after Raphael nothing will surprise me .

Hopefully thus just runs into CA before it can get its act together, but that looks likely each model run in my amateur opinion.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1856498665134678203

[SFLcane]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Yup, same way there has never been a west moving hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in Nov until now. We are certainly acting more like early/mid Oct rather then mid Nov. 2024 launched climo out the window weeks ago!

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1856510112677974095

[chaser1]

360° banding underway

[wxman57]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Climo aside what's your thoughts on endgame?

I'm thinking SW FL Peninsula or possibly FL Straits as a sheared Cat 1 hurricane. Won't rule out Cat 2. Would not forecast a Cat 3. It may be a Cat 3 in NW Caribbean, but it should be sheared in the SE Gulf. Sheared storms always move right of model forecasts. That's why I would not rule out passing south of FL like Michelle in November 2001. I was forecasting that storm.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1856511931898834956

[Jr0d]

I cant find a radar for Jamaica, but here is the US Navy's Guantanamo radar :

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... =CMaxZH240

[eastcoastFL]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Yup, same way there has never been a west moving hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in Nov until now. We are certainly acting more like early/mid Oct rather then mid Nov. 2024 launched climo out the window weeks ago!

Climo doesn’t give me the reassurance that it once did. Watching Milton form where he did and then Rafael head that way in reverse was something I never expected to see. Weird season.