ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Floater seems lost, I think someone moved right instead of left, but my bet this is soon over the invest.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[TheAustinMan]

Floater seems lost, I think someone moved right instead of left, but my bet this is soon over the invest.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

The meso sector moved east for a scientific field campaign, but that particular mesoscale sector tasking will last until 05:30 UTC. I would imagine the floater will be moved back after that time.

[fci]

AccuWeather

https://youtu.be/yy_F7f4KgtA?si=iedgKzvC7pibX_Ll

An excellently put together discussion on potential Sarah.
Certainly does not make us in South Florida feel very good about the possible Wilma 2.0

Hey fci, just noticed your in Lake Worth! i am in lake worth also about 5 min from wellington

Hypoluxo between Jog and Turnpike

[ElectricStorm]

If this does end up avoiding CA, we're probably looking at another major. That would put us at 6 for the year. Crazy how at one point it looked like this season may struggle to even reach above average and now potentially could end up being just one major short of tying the record. Hope this doesn't end up being destructive, we've had enough of that this season

[chaser1]

If this does end up avoiding CA, we're probably looking at another major. That would put us at 6 for the year. Crazy how at one point it looked like this season may struggle to even reach above average and now potentially could end up being just one major short of tying the record. Hope this doesn't end up being destructive, we've had enough of that this season

It certainly has turned out to be a crazy year for us here in Florida. In fact, a funny 2024 trivia question might be ...
Name all of the Florida Counties that were NOT issued under a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or Warning at least once over the course of this season

[weeniepatrol]

[Jr0d]

Anyone else notice the apparent llc near 17.5N 85W ?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Perhaps this is the area we need to watch for genesis.

[weeniepatrol]

Anyone else notice the apparent llc near 17.5N 85W ?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Perhaps this is the area we need to watch for genesis.

That is unrelated to 99L. Here's today's earlier ASCAT pass (12 hours old); the trof is 99L. The closed surface low west of Jamaica shows up well there. It is not the focus for tropical cyclogenesis; the tropical wave axis is. A more recent ASCAT pass (2 and a half hours old) which I posted above shows the tropical wave has closed off into a broad low.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in associated with a broad area
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next
week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[GCANE]

Looks like this will phase with that front and bring a massive nor'easter to the NE CONUS.
977mb off Long Island
Snow forecast for the Smokies.

[cycloneye]

Has to organize more to be a TD. Let's see how it will be by afternoon when recon goes.

[TomballEd]

Convection looked more organized earlier, but the low level center is visible just S of Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[GCANE]

Feeder band kicking in from the EPAC across S Nicaragua

[GCANE]

Updraft anti-cyclone directly overhead.
Looks like this will go quickly today

[GCANE]

700mb vort looking good.
Won't take much to get it down to the surface

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2024111312, , BEST, 0, 161N, 776W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1856632929927025098

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1856559820649759091

[xironman]

12z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2024111312, , BEST, 0, 161N, 776W, 20, 1007, DB

https://i.imgur.com/alYa9M6.png

I think they are too far south, looks closer to 17N on the visible