ATL: SARA - Models

[sasha_B]

0z GFS has the system peaking at 922 hPa at 114 hours, with a fairly long & nearly stationary Category 4/5 peak, then weakening as it moves north-northwest into the Yucatan - but still making landfall there as a (likely) major hurricane, around 955 hPa. Not backing away from this pattern of stronger solutions, it seems.

[N2FSU]

0z GFS clips the Yucatan:




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[Jxdama]

0Z gfs has it slamming into the yucatan which should weaken it pretty good. Could be the start of more westward adjustments similar to the euro imo. Btw cmc has massive land interaction with just leftovers entering the gulf

[SFLcane]

00z gfs back to Wilma 2.0 across SFL..

[caneseddy]

Euro landfalls in Yucatán just south of Tulum as a major hurricane and exits north coast of Yucatán into the Gulf as a Cat 2…goes over the flat part of the Peninsula it looks like

Second landfall just north of Fort Myers as a Cat 2/borderline Cat 3 and exits near Vero Beach

[GCANE]

GFS has initialized this

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 00/42.html

[kevin]

06z GFS goes crazy again.

[kevin]

HWRF already makes this TS Sara within 6 - 12 hours. HMON takes 42 hours, HAFS-A 24 hours and HAFS-B 36 hours. HWRF also is the only of the 06z hurricane models to completely avoid a CA landfall in the short-term. As such, I'd say a stronger Sara in the upcoming 24 hours will also result in a stronger WCar peak due to it tracking more east.

[caneseddy]

6z GFS goes thru Florida Straits barely missing the Keys as a Cat 2

[cycloneye]

06z euro ensembles at 144 hours.

[chris_fit]

6z GFS goes thru Florida Straits barely missing the Keys as a Cat 2

Indeed. Most 06z GFS Ens however are a bit north of the OP run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I also noticed most of the Ensembles both gfs and Euro avoid the Yuc vs the operationals. And nearly none go south of Fl like the 06 gfs advertises. Something to watch.

[jlauderdal]

I also noticed most of the Ensembles both gfs and Euro avoid the Yuc vs the operationals. And nearly non go south of Fl like the 06 gfs advertises. Something to watch.

Ensembles should get far more weight at this point.

[WaveBreaking]

EPS members are further west than the GEFS ones, but they still mostly show future Sara missing Central America and heading N. Some pretty powerful members in both runs too.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

06z GEFS

[chris_fit]

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the models I think the setup here is pretty clear. However, I'd say that there are still two options on the table that can best be described by the two analogs I can think of. It's either going to be Mitch (buried in Central America) or it's going to be Wilma (North and then Northeast). If I'm placing odds, I'd go with 70/30 in favor of the Wilma scenario. I'm going with brief landfall on the Yucatan followed by a Chokoloskee landfall as a Cat 2 and a rapid crossing across the Florida peninsula with an exit into the Atlantic at Delray Beach.

[chris_fit]

12z Icon

Central Gulf - Weak

[tolakram]

ICON seems to have a third solution. Missing frames at the end but appears to be a low end tropical storm crossing Florida well north.

[SconnieCane]

ICON seems to have a third solution. Missing frames at the end but appears to be a low end tropical storm crossing Florida well north.

https://i.imgur.com/4ir3sUQ.gif

Gets buried in Belize/Yucatan much longer and over rougher terrain than according to the other models.