Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Gotwood Euro and CMC and both ensembles say otherwise, this is typical of the models to lose the cold in the medium range, the GFS will correct back west with the cold

[Brent]

Still a signal for some snow on the EPS here

This is the first time there's been any signal. Clearly it's gonna be way colder than the models show if that happens

[CaptinCrunch]

Snippet from NWS FTW

The strongest cool down over the next week isn`t expected with
the front itself Monday, but rather afterwards and looking at the
midweek with potent CAA. Significant disagreement on the evolution
of a deeper upper level trough beyond Tuesday will impact the
strength of the cold air and potential for a reinforcing front in
the mid to late week (Days 8-10). The current chance for freezing
temperatures is still only around 10-30% for locations outside of
the urban areas, with areawide highs in the 50s likely for a day
or two as well as lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Of course this
is still over a week out, so while these temperatures aren`t
likely to bring widespread impacts in terms of the freezing/frost
potential, it`s still a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast
for additional details.

The above is more typical of what we should of seen in late October early November.

[Iceresistance]

Someone is going to get a Blizzard out of this


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Syf7L.png

[Ntxw]

Glad the never-ending summer ridge will be gone. Still waiting to see the magnitude of the delivery and what kind of air. If it's just freezing threat it's about the time we get those via climo.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw not sure texas will see any freezes with the exception of the pan handle, this airmass is more polar in nature compared to arctic, but if the blocking signature stays in place for an extended period like what the ensembles/ euro weeklies suggest, we will no doubt have numerous freezes going forward lol

[Brent]

Tulsa still talking about wintry weather possible

Not much history of anything significant in November though. I only found 2 storms where there was more than a couple inches

[wxman22]

Both the Canadian and Euro show the first freeze of the season next week.

[Stratton23]

The GFS is predicting a stretch of the polar vortex to occur around the 21st of november

[Brent]

TV station here has below normal temps starting next Wednesday all the way through at least Thanksgiving Eve. Even the highs in the 60s are getting to be above normal now

[Stratton23]

Im starting to think that this pattern change to colder weather could be a extended change, every piece of guidance that i see including tonights GFS run, keep ridging over canada and alaska all the way through the rest of november and most of december, this could be a long term change potentially

[Ntxw]

Relative to averages, should be a couple days of below normal temperatures.

[Ntxw]

It's actually after this period that Canada may begin seeing a more expansive building of colder air. As long as the Pacific ridge is poleward, we should see another opportunity of more substantial cold fronts. As I mentioned before the standard is so low given the late summer/fall ridge is better than what we've been through.

[Brent]

That is a heck of a snowstorm on the icon barely north of me

Im not really expecting much next week other than a cold snap I just hope this is a good sign of things to come

Then again last Thanksgiving Kansas got buried and it didn't help us at all. Who knows

[Stratton23]

12z models definitely tell me that they arent handeling this pattern well at all, the GFS/ CMC are far too progressive with the blocking , Euro is more realistic at the moment

[HockeyTx82]

Severe weather chances on Sunday and Monday now for Texas. 15% Prob.

[Ntxw]

Will probably make a more extensive post on this in the winter thread at a later date but the region around Japan has plagued us this year and really the past several winters being mild. It's made a bad WPO configuration stagnant and downstream effects has not been well received. Well documented marine heatwave that has broken all kinds of records on that island nation (that continues.) There are hints of changes in the Euro weeklies and if, and only if, we are to see a true shuffle in the Pacific will rely on the Sea of Okhotsk-Japan region seeing lowering pressure and cooler SSTs to shift the WPO negative. When you hear 'poleward ridge' it means just that, the warmth and ridge shifted north into the polar and subarctic of the Pacific and lowering pressures to the south, negative phase.





Euro weeklies hint it may next month. If things are going to change for the winter, it has to start here first. As noted previously, the severe -PDO was not so much a result of the deep balance between a warm west Pacific and cold East Pacific, but warmth everywhere and record warmth in the WPAC with the marine heatwave.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Will probably make a more extensive post on this in the winter thread at a later date but the region around Japan has plagued us this year and really the past several winters being mild. It's made a bad WPO configuration stagnant and downstream effects has not been well received. Well documented marine heatwave that has broken all kinds of records on that island nation (that continues.) There are hints of changes in the Euro weeklies and if, and only if, we are to see a true shuffle in the Pacific will rely on the Sea of Okhotsk-Japan region seeing lowering pressure and cooler SSTs to shift the WPO negative. When you hear 'poleward ridge' it means just that, the warmth and ridge shifted north into the polar and subarctic of the Pacific and lowering pressures to the south, negative phase.

https://i.imgur.com/A11pJTK.gif

https://i.imgur.com/a48hYnc.gif

Euro weeklies hint it may next month. If things are going to change for the winter, it has to start here first. As noted previously, the severe -PDO was not so much a result of the deep balance between a warm west Pacific and cold East Pacific, but warmth everywhere and record warmth in the WPAC with the marine heatwave.

Eric Webb mentions what your saying on Twitter or something similar. We should be colder if the alutian ridge can be poleward. If it's flat, it will not help us to get cold at all. Mjo in colder phases should help also. Ultimately, it comes down to timing regardless of the pattern.

[Ntxw]

Eric Webb mentions what your saying on Twitter or something similar. We should be colder if the alutian ridge can be poleward. If it's flat, it will not help us to get cold at all. Mjo in colder phases should help also. Ultimately, it comes down to timing regardless of the pattern.

Yeah the marine heatwave is getting old. All it has been doing is magnifying the Pacific jet flooding North America with warmth and stagnation. We need to buckle the Pacific jet stream.

[Iceresistance]

Eric Webb mentions what your saying on Twitter or something similar. We should be colder if the alutian ridge can be poleward. If it's flat, it will not help us to get cold at all. Mjo in colder phases should help also. Ultimately, it comes down to timing regardless of the pattern.

Yeah the marine heatwave is getting old. All it has been doing is magnifying the Pacific jet flooding North America with warmth and stagnation. We need to buckle the Pacific jet stream.

How long has that been going? 2-3 years?