ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Current State of the Union (Caribbean):

https://i.imgur.com/32Ru7hR.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/EtPNCaX.gif

Pretty solid analysis. The only thing I'd take issue with is the reason you cited for displacement of the convection. Note the different motions of the CI blowoff over the SW-most Caribbean Sea...
https://i.imgur.com/p6v3hKL.png

as well as the CIMSS upper divergence analysis...
https://i.imgur.com/DJFH8uh.gif

Its in an area of very strong upper divergence/difluence, which is main reason for it being along the wave's southern flank. The CIMSS upper level shear analysis also supports this - shear is virtually negligible as the area in under the center of an upper level anticyclone...

https://i.imgur.com/rYNRF8N.gif

I stand corrected. I should’ve looked at the shear map before posting.

[xironman]

Yep it doesn't look like AF recon has taken off yet but NOAA42 is taxiing right now, they might have taken over this flight? It would still be on pace to get to 99L at 19z as planned.

nvm NOAA42 is actually just a training flight, not sure if the low level invest flight scheduled to depart 2 hours ago is just delayed or cancelled. The next flight after that is scheduled to be on station early tomorrow morning (6:30est I think) which may be the first recon 99L gets.

I can't see where they cancelled the flight. Know if it is going to go into CA would seem huge and the data from the flight could help that.

[cycloneye]

Recon was canceled for today. First mission will be tommorow morning.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely
while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea
through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly
northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and
northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[xironman]

The naked swirl in the GOH is amazing. If it deflects 99L north by 50 miles it is huge downstream.

[MarioProtVI]

Trend seems to be more towards burying itself in CA and only getting moderately strong. Probably nothing more than a Cat 1 or 2 if that continues. Good news for Florida, bad news for Honduras since it’ll just rain itself out causing catastrophic floods and lots of deaths. Lose lose situation here.

[Jr0d]

Trend seems to be more towards burying itself in CA and only getting moderately strong. Probably nothing more than a Cat 1 or 2 if that continues. Good news for Florida, bad news for Honduras since it’ll just rain itself out causing catastrophic floods and lots of deaths. Lose lose situation here.

1 model run is not exactly a trend. The majority of the euro and gfs ensemble keep it offshore and strong. the CMC however has been suggesting this solution for days now.

If tomorrow morning the operational GFS and EURO models still show in going to CA before it can bomb, them I think we can call it a tend

[MarioProtVI]

Trend seems to be more towards burying itself in CA and only getting moderately strong. Probably nothing more than a Cat 1 or 2 if that continues. Good news for Florida, bad news for Honduras since it’ll just rain itself out causing catastrophic floods and lots of deaths. Lose lose situation here.

1 model run is not exactly a trend. The majority of the euro and gfs ensemble keep it offshore and strong. the CMC however has been suggesting this solution for days now.

If tomorrow morning the operational GFS and EURO models still show in going to CA before it can bomb, them I think we can call it a tend

Actually, upon further digging, the reason for the downtick was because the trough over the Plains is trending much weaker on the GFS and Euro. Thus a stronger mid-level ridge that just shoves 99L into CA. This is from the surface data over there being imported into the models, and they seem to have caught onto this. Should this remain the case and it looks like it increasingly will (has downtrended the strength of the trough over last few runs), then 99L has a ceiling of maximum C1-2 before it moves inland. Major chances are dropping the more this trends towards this solution.

[psyclone]

No matter what happens with this system I definitely believe the trend toward late weighted hurricane seasons increases the risk to FL and the western Caribbean. I'm definitely ready for the "off" season...

[chaser1]

The naked swirl in the GOH is amazing. If it deflects 99L north by 50 miles it is huge downstream.

https://i.imgur.com/G79QL6v.gif

I'm frankly surprised that it's been able to sustain itself?! I wouldn't have thought that it's tiny intermittent and sheared convection would be substantial enough to keep it going LOL

[chaser1]

Trend seems to be more towards burying itself in CA and only getting moderately strong. Probably nothing more than a Cat 1 or 2 if that continues. Good news for Florida, bad news for Honduras since it’ll just rain itself out causing catastrophic floods and lots of deaths. Lose lose situation here.

1 model run is not exactly a trend. The majority of the euro and gfs ensemble keep it offshore and strong. the CMC however has been suggesting this solution for days now.

If tomorrow morning the operational GFS and EURO models still show in going to CA before it can bomb, them I think we can call it a tend

Actually, upon further digging, the reason for the downtick was because the trough over the Plains is trending much weaker on the GFS and Euro. Thus a stronger mid-level ridge that just shoves 99L into CA. This is from the surface data over there being imported into the models, and they seem to have caught onto this. Should this remain the case and it looks like it increasingly will (has downtrended the strength of the trough over last few runs), then 99L has a ceiling of maximum C1-2 before it moves inland. Major chances are dropping the more this trends towards this solution.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1052378176732540979/1306324276659486880/gfs_z500trend_us_fh0_trend.gif?ex=673640c9&is=6734ef49&hm=aa7422a60403d5599bf19196dc75cc4ae3222afc943fefaa5e6485b3ad5a7f62&
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1052378176732540979/1306324276999360582/ecmwf_z500trend_us_fh0_trend.gif?ex=673640c9&is=6734ef49&hm=2573f10536e96b7d5632dcf9cfa784eec722bb03a0fc83434bd02e966ba6ca1f&

Good analysis

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2024111318, , BEST, 0, 162N, 784W, 25, 1007, DB

[kevin]

While the interesting part of 99L is to the east of this ASCAT pass, you can see a portion of the left side of 99L (or at least the influence it has on its environment) and it seems to imply a more consolidated system than yesterday's ASCAT pass with perhaps just a single consistent center at this point. A buoy to the southeast of 99L shows a falling pressure now down to 1005.5 mb. We might go straight to Sara with tomorrow's recon.

[AJC3]

I can't see where they cancelled the flight. Know if it is going to go into CA would seem huge and the data from the flight could help that.

It came out around 1 PM (after you posted) in today's TCPOD...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EST WED 13 NOVEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-166

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
<snip>

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
<snip>

3. REMARK: THE TEAL 71 LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD
24-165 WILL NOT BE FLOWN TODAY.

<snip>

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

While the interesting part of 99L is to the east of this ASCAT pass, you can see a portion of the left side of 99L (or at least the influence it has on its environment) and it seems to imply a more consolidated system than yesterday's ASCAT pass with perhaps just a single consistent center at this point. A buoy to the southeast of 99L shows a falling pressure now down to 1005.5 mb. We might go straight to Sara with tomorrow's recon.

https://i.imgur.com/jb4n6xc.png

Based on that and the satellite this system is coming together nicely. Should be Sara by this time tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

[chris_fit]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

Here we go! Track Predictions?

[SFLcane]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

Here we go! Track Predictions?

Into CA not much left afterwards. Major flooding concern for them

[Teban54]

However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.

[cycloneye]