ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Buoy 42057 is reading 1004.7mb and is displaced from the center, so I’m curious why they went 1007mb here.

[wzrgirl1]

I hate all of this uncertainty. I don't know how much planning I should do. I guess I will wait a day or two until more tracks are shown. I can't get a feel for this one.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting that they don't even bring it up to a hurricane.

[SFLcane]

I hate all of this uncertainty. I don't know how much planning I should do. I guess I will wait a day or two until more tracks are shown. I can't get a feel for this one.

Its still up for question how much land interaction there will be down there but the trend today has certainly looked much better for FL with high pressure trending stronger over the peninsula. Early evening intensity guidance keep it below hurricane intensity. I would not be overly concerned at all stay up to date with https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Sanibel]

Waiting for more definite West wind...

[wxman57]

Issued our first track around 1:30 this afternoon. NHC issued theirs before 3pm. Our 5 day points are about 20 miles apart. They, like us, stayed close to consensus. Fortunately, for them, they only had to make a 5-day forecast, mine is 7 days. I have it off the west coast of Florida heading for a point between Tampa and Ft. Myers next Wednesday afternoon as a Cat 1 hurricane. I wish I could say I was confident that it won't just bury itself into CA and dissipate. That's a very strong cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Tuesday evening. Strong SW wind ahead of it should steer anything that makes it north of the Yucatan to the northeast. The timing of any movement off the northern Yucatan is important. ICON is faster, so it takes the center to the FL Panhandle as a TD or weak TS. Lots of shear if it goes that way. The only way it could be a hurricane in the Gulf is if it is slower to move into the Gulf and gets steered eastward toward south Florida or the Florida Straits. Way too early to be confident in anything beyond Sunday.

[fllawyer]

Issued our first track around 1:30 this afternoon. NHC issued theirs before 3pm. Our 5 day points are about 20 miles apart. They, like us, stayed close to consensus. Fortunately, for them, they only had to make a 5-day forecast, mine is 7 days. I have it off the west coast of Florida heading for a point between Tampa and Ft. Myers next Wednesday afternoon as a Cat 1 hurricane. I wish I could say I was confident that it won't just bury itself into CA and dissipate. That's a very strong cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Tuesday evening. Strong SW wind ahead of it should steer anything that makes it north of the Yucatan to the northeast. The timing of any movement off the northern Yucatan is important. ICON is faster, so it takes the center to the FL Panhandle as a TD or weak TS. Lots of shear if it goes that way. The only way it could be a hurricane in the Gulf is if it is slower to move into the Gulf and gets steered eastward toward south Florida or the Florida Straits. Way too early to be confident in anything beyond Sunday.

Any chance you work for StormGeo? The company I work for receives a private forecast from them and yours matches that to a “t”.”

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting that they don't even bring it up to a hurricane.

I’m guessing that’s because it’s still not formed yet and potential land interaction.

[ChrisH-UK]

[wxman57]

Issued our first track around 1:30 this afternoon. NHC issued theirs before 3pm. Our 5 day points are about 20 miles apart. They, like us, stayed close to consensus. Fortunately, for them, they only had to make a 5-day forecast, mine is 7 days. I have it off the west coast of Florida heading for a point between Tampa and Ft. Myers next Wednesday afternoon as a Cat 1 hurricane. I wish I could say I was confident that it won't just bury itself into CA and dissipate. That's a very strong cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Tuesday evening. Strong SW wind ahead of it should steer anything that makes it north of the Yucatan to the northeast. The timing of any movement off the northern Yucatan is important. ICON is faster, so it takes the center to the FL Panhandle as a TD or weak TS. Lots of shear if it goes that way. The only way it could be a hurricane in the Gulf is if it is slower to move into the Gulf and gets steered eastward toward south Florida or the Florida Straits. Way too early to be confident in anything beyond Sunday.

Any chance you work for StormGeo? The company I work for receives a private forecast from them and yours matches that to a “t”.”

I've heard of them. Can't say where I do work. Don't want anything I say tied to the company. I'm free to say what I want, that way.

[fllawyer]

Issued our first track around 1:30 this afternoon. NHC issued theirs before 3pm. Our 5 day points are about 20 miles apart. They, like us, stayed close to consensus. Fortunately, for them, they only had to make a 5-day forecast, mine is 7 days. I have it off the west coast of Florida heading for a point between Tampa and Ft. Myers next Wednesday afternoon as a Cat 1 hurricane. I wish I could say I was confident that it won't just bury itself into CA and dissipate. That's a very strong cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Tuesday evening. Strong SW wind ahead of it should steer anything that makes it north of the Yucatan to the northeast. The timing of any movement off the northern Yucatan is important. ICON is faster, so it takes the center to the FL Panhandle as a TD or weak TS. Lots of shear if it goes that way. The only way it could be a hurricane in the Gulf is if it is slower to move into the Gulf and gets steered eastward toward south Florida or the Florida Straits. Way too early to be confident in anything beyond Sunday.

Any chance you work for StormGeo? The company I work for receives a private forecast from them and yours matches that to a “t”.”

I've heard of them. Can't say where I do work. Don't want anything I say tied to the company. I'm free to say what I want, that way.

Totally get it, especially in my line of work. Really appreciate your sharing your thoughts and expertise.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Waxman
As you stated still to early to lock in a land fall location, But based on your expertise , any chance it gets south of Ft Myers? Thanks in advance and all the times you provide your knowledge to this board.

[SFLcane]

Issued our first track around 1:30 this afternoon. NHC issued theirs before 3pm. Our 5 day points are about 20 miles apart. They, like us, stayed close to consensus. Fortunately, for them, they only had to make a 5-day forecast, mine is 7 days. I have it off the west coast of Florida heading for a point between Tampa and Ft. Myers next Wednesday afternoon as a Cat 1 hurricane. I wish I could say I was confident that it won't just bury itself into CA and dissipate. That's a very strong cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Tuesday evening. Strong SW wind ahead of it should steer anything that makes it north of the Yucatan to the northeast. The timing of any movement off the northern Yucatan is important. ICON is faster, so it takes the center to the FL Panhandle as a TD or weak TS. Lots of shear if it goes that way. The only way it could be a hurricane in the Gulf is if it is slower to move into the Gulf and gets steered eastward toward south Florida or the Florida Straits. Way too early to be confident in anything beyond Sunday.

Yea I don’t see anything coming out of the Caribbean model guidance keeps this buried in CA and Weak. Unfortunately the threat for flooding and mudslides is very high for CA.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1856857452358070710

[wzrgirl1]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1856857452358070710

Tomorrow it could change again. This is so nerve-racking to me. South Florida hasn't felt a direct impact for a very long time, and I know it is just a matter of time. I hope we are safe. Even a tropical storm can do a lot of harm. Just look at ETA. I pray everyone in Honduras stays safe. Water is a killer.

[MetroMike]

Until we get a defined center of circulation the models will be compromised.

[fci]

Until we get a defined center of circulation the models will be compromised.

Sure.
But general overall upper level forecasting and trends will be there wherever the center gets defined.

[fllawyer]

NHC 10pm ET discussion continues to forecast future Sara won’t reach hurricane status before Yucatan, caveats with “However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.”

[weeniepatrol]

NHC 10pm ET discussion continues to forecast future Sara won’t reach hurricane status before Yucatan, caveats with “However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.”

Yeah. The potential for land interaction is throwing a massive wrench into anything resembling a confident forecast. Erratic steering in collapsed flow regimes is something models are notorious for struggling a bit with. If it ends up just 50 miles south or west, this may not even be a TS when it reaches the Gulf. If it shifts north/east and remains offshore the entire time, could become a C4 or 5. lol

[chaser1]

Yea I don’t see anything coming out of the Caribbean model guidance keeps this buried in CA and Weak. Unfortunately the threat for flooding and mudslides is very high for CA.

Spock to Kirk: "All signs suggest the life form continues to remain weak"
Kirk to Scotty: "Can energy from our lithium crystals be deflected to consolidate its core? Bones, any thoughts?"
Dr. McCoy: "Its dead Jim"