WPAC: MAN-YI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Finally 12z Euro started again disseminating TC tracks for each TC, it seems that with the recent Euro upgrade the HRES and CTRL are now the same, and fwir, the next Euro upgrade next year, the HRES will now be called the ensemble CTRL...effectively becoming one.
Pretty intense members

[dexterlabio]

The consensus generally showing Luzon but imo those living in the Visayas area must keep an eye on this as well.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The consensus generally showing Luzon but imo those living in the Visayas area must keep an eye on this as well.

Something similar happened with typhoon Mike in the 1990s. Family says southerly shifts kept going on until it struck us. A Visayas landfall isn't likely but this has just caught our eyes.

[Hayabusa]

STS since 00z

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/14 04:15 UTC
Analysis at 11/14 03 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°30′ (10.5°)
E137°40′ (137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

00z...looks like converging into Central Luzon, though still may pass closer to the capital region...

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Hayabusa]

Man-yi has entered PAR and is now locally named Pepito

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The agencies and models are converging into somewhat of a Babs/Loleng 1998 redux. Very similar intensities, though Man-yi could be even stronger, and the areas/trajectories converge. Babs' impacts were largely exacerbated by her slow movement and subsequent substantial rainfall. Unlike Babs, Man-yi is moving much faster.

Man-yi seems to be passing over very populated areas too. Concerned about the wind damage, rain, and possible storm surge --- especially since it passes north of the Metro (which worsens their surge risk).

[underthwx]

The consensus generally showing Luzon but imo those living in the Visayas area must keep an eye on this as well.

That covers my people living in Luzon, and Visayas, stresses me out. I worry bout landslides there and such.

[underthwx]

Man-yi has entered PAR and is now locally named Pepito

Yeah. PAGASA area of responsibility, my brother is getting double dipped by 2 cyclones in the Luzon region, Ofel (Usagi) and now Pepito (Manyi) will affect my brother there in just a matter of days , and my people in Visayas, and Metro-Manila. This is the 5th major cyclone to affect the Phillipines in the past 3 weeks yall. Talk about storm weary? Talk to them. (Toraji, Trami, Yinxing and Kong-rey — killed more than 100 people and caused destruction. Breaks my heart.) Barring another typhoon in 3 weeks time, I will be there in the Phillipines, I, along with 2 of my stateside brothers are going there to try to help pick up the pieces for my friends and family. It's difficult to keep up with all the cyclones, I knew this was coming sooner or later, after the relatively quiet past couple typhoon seasons, short lived relief from worrying.

[underthwx]

The agencies and models are converging into somewhat of a Babs/Loleng 1998 redux. Very similar intensities, though Man-yi could be even stronger, and the areas/trajectories converge. Babs' impacts were largely exacerbated by her slow movement and subsequent substantial rainfall. Unlike Babs, Man-yi is moving much faster.

Man-yi seems to be passing over very populated areas too. Concerned about the wind damage, rain, and possible storm surge --- especially since it passes north of the Metro (which worsens their surge risk).

https://i.ibb.co/N95Yt0L/1280px-Babs-1998-track.png

Be safe bro, what effects are you facing there in your area?

[Hayabusa]

If Man-yi ia gonna strike Catanduanes first, then at the time of this post it has 39 hours left of rapidly intensifying to a super.

[Hayabusa]

The EC-AIFS is tracking this close to or over the capital region.

[underthwx]

The EC-AIFS is tracking this close to or over the capital region.

Basically nearer to Metro Manila?

[Hayabusa]

The EC-AIFS is tracking this close to or over the capital region.

Basically nearer to Metro Manila?

Yes, traditional models might be playing catch up on track...

[Hayabusa]

JTWC at 55 kts while JMA up to 60 kts

25W MAN-YI 241114 1800 10.4N 133.6E WPAC 55 993

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/14 19:15 UTC
Analysis at 11/14 18 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25′ (10.4°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

JTWC at 55 kts while JMA up to 60 kts

25W MAN-YI 241114 1800 10.4N 133.6E WPAC 55 993

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/14 19:15 UTC
Analysis at 11/14 18 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25′ (10.4°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

Revised to 60

25W MAN-YI 241114 1800 10.4N 133.6E WPAC 60 988

[dexterlabio]

The catch up game starts now

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to typhoon at 21Z

WTPQ52 ‎RJTD ‎142100
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TY ‎2424 ‎MAN-YI ‎(2424) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎142100UTC ‎10.4N ‎132.7E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎065KT
GUST ‎ ‎095KT
50KT ‎ ‎40NM
30KT ‎ ‎150NM
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎150900UTC ‎11.3N ‎129.8E ‎35NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎970HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT
24HF ‎ ‎152100UTC ‎12.4N ‎127.3E ‎50NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎13KT
PRES ‎ ‎965HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎085KT
GUST ‎ ‎120KT
45HF ‎ ‎161800UTC ‎14.3N ‎123.9E ‎85NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎950HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎095KT
GUST ‎ ‎135KT
69HF ‎ ‎171800UTC ‎17.1N ‎119.7E ‎100NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎070KT
GUST ‎ ‎100KT
93HF ‎ ‎181800UTC ‎18.3N ‎115.2E ‎125NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎992HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
117HF ‎ ‎191800UTC ‎17.6N ‎111.1E ‎150NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT ‎=

[WaveBreaking]