ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

Yea I don’t see anything coming out of the Caribbean model guidance keeps this buried in CA and Weak. Unfortunately the threat for flooding and mudslides is very high for CA.

Spock to Kirk: "All signs suggest the life form continues to remain weak"
Kirk to Scotty: "Can energy from our lithium crystals be deflected to consolidate its core? Bones, any thoughts?"
Dr. McCoy: "Its dead Jim"

May the force be with you. I kno its star wars, but its space talk

[chaser1]

FWIW, PTC-19 finally appears to possess a dynamic satellite presentation of a T.D. I expect the further upgrade to T.S. by later tomorrow morning. 2024 - The year that keeps on giving.

[chaser1]

Yea I don’t see anything coming out of the Caribbean model guidance keeps this buried in CA and Weak. Unfortunately the threat for flooding and mudslides is very high for CA.

Spock to Kirk: "All signs suggest the life form continues to remain weak"
Kirk to Scotty: "Can energy from our lithium crystals be deflected to consolidate its core? Bones, any thoughts?"
Dr. McCoy: "Its dead Jim"

May the force be with you. I kno its star wars, but its space talk

Mic drop

[underthwx]

FWIW, PTC-19 finally appears to possess a dynamic satellite presentation of a T.D. I expect the further upgrade to T.S. by later tomorrow morning. 2024 - The year that keeps on giving.

And giving

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/nc2g3Fc.gif

That MLC (and LLC if it’s there) is speeding towards land. By the time recon arrives later this morning, if it continues moving at the rate it’s going now before the supposed stall, it’ll move inland before it even has a chance to become a TS. Maybe some gales in the northern part of the circulation that stays offshore. But chances of a hurricane just went out the window and I don’t see this becoming anything stronger then 40-45 kt at this rate. We’ll see.

[psyclone]

Assuming the center is where it appears....it looks like it is headed into Nicaragua rather than Honduras. It better pull up stat..

[Hurricane2022]

Big L for models but huge W for C.A. (I hope it so!)
See you again in 2025, WCAR

[aspen]

Looks like a Nadine 2.0 it is. Huge L for the GFS and it’s quicker development solution that kept it away from CA.

[Blown Away]

~100 miles can make a difference, TD19 looks pretty good and if not for the land interactions I think it would become a big hurricane.

[wxman57]

I don't think it will survive in the Gulf. NHC may still call it a TS north of Yucatan, but that cold front means business. Strong shear. It may merge with the front by Wednesday morning before reaching FL. Front will produce 40-50 kt winds offshore. That's the big weather maker, not Sara-to-be.

[cycloneye]

Keeps losing latitude.

AL, 19, 2024111412, , BEST, 0, 157N, 822W, 30, 1004, TD

[boca]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wMt9GW30/e99f0f44-9f96-4079-9d24-8bed83744147.gif [/url]

~100 miles can make a difference, TD19 looks pretty good and if not for the land interactions I think it would become a big hurricane.

It looks like it’s going to crash into Central America and hopefully dissipate.

[Blown Away]

Keeps losing latitude.

AL, 19, 2024111412, , BEST, 0, 157N, 822W, 30, 1004, TD

https://i.imgur.com/ALyCnZ9.png

Some of these systems are land lovers...

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wMt9GW30/e99f0f44-9f96-4079-9d24-8bed83744147.gif [/url]

~100 miles can make a difference, TD19 looks pretty good and if not for the land interactions I think it would become a big hurricane.

It looks like it’s going to crash into Central America and hopefully dissipate.

Not that there is a real LLC, but it's going S of the NHC track and not sure it survives the day.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the centre of rotation is just offshore of the Honduras/Nicaraguan border. There's going to be a lot of rain over Honduras today as it churns away.

GOES-16 GeoProxy 1 hour loop

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well, this Floridiot is very happy to see the turn of events this morning for "would have been Sara". Another west coast Florida storm was not welcome at all, thank you very much!!
I'm already dreading the expected rise in my home insurance rate come April's renewal date, despite being in an X zone (non-flooding) personally and having withstood no damage beyond a leaning fence after Helene and Milton. Another major storm would likely result in assessments for all homeowners in the state to spread the pain; not just the Citizens insurance holders. But just a weak Tropical Storm would be welcomed rain, as we have been bone dry since Milton's passing.
Since my home selling for a profit IS my retirement plan, I don't want any more storms that could damage it until after I sell this spring!

[cycloneye]

From the 10 AM EST discussion about track and intensity:

There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

[Sanibel]

Could be trouble for Ambergris Cay...

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1857082136311832810