ATL: SARA - Models

[Weathertracker96]

hard to bet against climo this time of year, definitely good news for florida as gfs has caved to the euro/cmc. blocking high just too strong

The euro still shows a hurricane into FL so I don’t know how that’s good news.

[kevin]

18z has trended towards less land interaction with TVCN avoiding the initial CA landfall altogether.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So we are possibly moving back to a no CA. interaction? based on the chart a lot more interaction with the Yucatan, then the big question how strong does the front come down, and how far south is land fall possible?

[chaser1]

Suddenly, nothin' but crickets

[Steve]

Suddenly, nothin' but crickets

If it was May or June, there would be some discussion. But it’s the middle of November, and models aren’t showing much now. Kind of looking like a Gulf low that will bring a couple or few inches of rain to some areas wherever the front picks it up. This, as of now, appears to be a minor weather event rather than something everyone has to pay attention to. MJO looks solid on the good models between 18-23rd. But it will be the second half of November. So even if things were amplified in phase 3 and we got a decent TS out of PTC19, it’s not going to be a big deal.

[Steve]

ICON kind of led the pack with the Yucatán crossover. Time will tell if it got that right regardless of what Sara is during that timeframe. But other globals are coming to that scenario.

[Jxdama]

This went from a potentially historic south florida hurricane to nothing in a blink of an eye………wow

[dexterlabio]

All hail ICON?

[fllawyer]

If anything, GFS is consistent for wanting to “Get Florida Soon.” This is now two storms in a row where GFS has been hailed for run-to-run consistency of a strong Florida hit only for the actual track to (likely) be way off. Hoping the recent trends continue for the sake of the Florida peninsula.

[NDG]

Just 2-3 days ago models were showing the system staying offshore and becoming a big ACE producer. They under estimated the strength of the mid level ridge.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1857040876595269993

[kevin]

12z location in reality compared to the 06z + 6 hrs location of the models. Sorted from east to west, angular distance to the real location in brackets)

HAFS-A = 15.9N, 81.6W (0.6 deg difference)
HAFS-B = 15.9N, 81.7W (0.5 deg difference)
GFS = 15.8N, 81.9W (0.3 deg difference)
HWRF = 14.5N, 81.9W (1.2 deg difference)
Reality = 15.7N, 82.2W (0.0 deg difference)
ECMWF = 16.9N, 82.3W (1.2 deg difference) [interpolated]
HMON = 15.4N, 82.4W (0.4 deg difference)
ICON = 15.9N, 82.6W (0.4 deg difference)

[underthwx]

Just 2-3 days ago models were showing the system staying offshore and becoming a big ACE producer. They under estimated the strength of the mid level ridge.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1857040876595269993

I dunno about that, (based on the current NHC td19 discussion in regards to its track) Per the latest NHC td19 discussion, although there is a "notable track shift westward", there remains big-time uncertainty if td19 even goes inland, so it's not clear yet. "there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72."

Quotes from latest NHC td19 forecast. The NHC also notes in its latest td19 discussion that its too soon to kno what impacts td19 will be capable of in Florida.

[chaser1]

Just 2-3 days ago models were showing the system staying offshore and becoming a big ACE producer. They under estimated the strength of the mid level ridge.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1857040876595269993

I dunno about that, (based on the current NHC td19 discussion in regards to its track) Per the latest NHC td19 discussion, although there is a "notable track shift westward", there remains big-time uncertainty if td19 even goes inland, so it's not clear yet. "there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72."

Quotes from latest NHC td19 forecast. The NHC also notes in its latest td19 discussion that its too soon to kno what impacts td19 will be capable of in Florida.

True, however I think the elements of NHC's TD discussion that you are pointing out is more a reflection of their responsibly conservative communication and less so reflective of the overwhelming model support that suggests a far more diminished threat to Cuba, Yucatan, or Florida. Barring an unexpected sudden stall or nearly immediate northwest shift in track, there's ever increasing confidence that low level steering will continue to push the TD inland. It certainly is a world of difference having a well developed Cat 4 hurricane lifting north from the W. Caribbean as it approaches light to moderate Westerlies.... verses a wrecked TD dragged over land and not back over the southern GOM until upper level conditions have already become volatile for significant (if any) tropical development. NHC is smart to communicate in a "steady as she goes" manner and avoid hyperbolic conversation of "what if's"; Especially in light of trending TD motion and model support.

[kevin]

12z ICON shows a TS landfall in Belize.

[underthwx]

Just 2-3 days ago models were showing the system staying offshore and becoming a big ACE producer. They under estimated the strength of the mid level ridge.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1857040876595269993

I dunno about that, (based on the current NHC td19 discussion in regards to its track) Per the latest NHC td19 discussion, although there is a "notable track shift westward", there remains big-time uncertainty if td19 even goes inland, so it's not clear yet. "there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72."

Quotes from latest NHC td19 forecast. The NHC also notes in its latest td19 discussion that its too soon to kno what impacts td19 will be capable of in Florida.

True, however I think the elements of NHC's TD discussion that you are pointing out is more a reflection of their responsibly conservative communication and less so reflective of the overwhelming model support that suggests a far more diminished threat to Cuba, Yucatan, or Florida. Barring an unexpected sudden stall or nearly immediate northwest shift in track, there's ever increasing confidence that low level steering will continue to push the TD inland. It certainly is a world of difference having a well developed Cat 4 hurricane lifting north from the W. Caribbean as it approaches light to moderate Westerlies.... verses a wrecked TD dragged over land and not back over the southern GOM until upper level conditions have already become volatile for significant (if any) tropical development. NHC is smart to communicate in a "steady as she goes" manner and avoid hyperbolic conversation of "what if's"; Especially in light of trending TD motion and model support.

Yeah. After reading the discussion again, I see what you are saying. And its possible that TD19 may track further south over land, increasing woes for our friends there in the region, or possibly stall just offshore? The NHC appears to be on the fence with track/intensity atm, so I digress a bit, and all I am suggesting is its gonna be a close call, regarding TD19s evolution, and possible impacts for Florida. I think yall are doing an epic job in sorting out the details, it's as real-time info as it gets, right here. Whatever happens with TD19 remains to be seen. And thankyou for your reply Chaser, I wish I had said that to begin with.

[Travorum]

If anything, GFS is consistent for wanting to “Get Florida Soon.” This is now two storms in a row where GFS has been hailed for run-to-run consistency of a strong Florida hit only for the actual track to (likely) be way off. Hoping the recent trends continue for the sake of the Florida peninsula.

All-in-all this has been a textbook example of how precision/consistency is a very different thing from accuracy. GFS had a high precision but low accuracy trend.

[Woofde]

All hail ICON?

It's certainly proven it's worth this season. This performance at the end is just a cherry on top, especially when you consider that the top dogs (GFS and Euro) were pretty far off with their Carribean backtrack major solution.

The EC-AIFS and HAFS also nailed the land interaction. The scene is no longer just two kings on top and a bunch of other crazy bad models. It's a pretty exciting time between the ICON, HAFS, and rapidly upcoming AI models.

[SconnieCane]

All hail ICON?

It's certainly proven it's worth this season. This performance at the end is just a cherry on top, especially when you consider that the top dogs (GFS and Euro) were pretty far off with their Carribean backtrack major solution.

Yeah, that was a big fail especially by the GFS/GEFS. 36 hours ago I was confident this was at the very least going to be a big ACE booster to push the season well into hyperactive territory.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z HAFS A is showing some signs of Sara rebounding in the GOM. Has Sara down to 989mb by 21Z Tuesday 11/19 heading NE. Not very strong, but definitely still a TC, and stronger than the last few runs.

[Weathertracker96]

18Z HAFS A is showing some signs of Sara rebounding in the GOM. Has Sara down to 989mb by 21Z Tuesday 11/19 heading NE. Not very strong, but definitely still a TC, and stronger than the last few runs.

Is the HAFS A a good model accuracy wise?
Interesting it’s stronger than the last few runs