ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Could be trouble for Ambergris Cay...

Hopefully NOT a destination wedding spot that was chosen in advance for this particular weekend! Best case scenario for the residents there will still mean miserable, blustery & soaking weather conditions

[MarioProtVI]

1008 mb extrap. Very weak. Might not even get named before landfall given how weak it is right now.

[wxman57]

Plane found 35kt SFMR, so I think they'll upgrade it. No model now has it surviving to reach the Gulf, though. Just remnants moving NE across eastern Gulf Tue/Wed. Very high shear. Cold front will produce 40-50kt north wind out there Wed/Thu.

[chaser1]

Sure is hard to make out a clear LLC through the dense canopy but my best guess would place the center a tad south of the NHC position (15.7N), and perhaps closer to around 15.0 N. The other factor perhaps being that the LLC simply remains I'll defined. Anyone recall any recent wind reports?
EDIT: Just read prior post

[MarioProtVI]

Plane found 35kt SFMR, so I think they'll upgrade it. No model now has it surviving to reach the Gulf, though. Just remnants moving NE across eastern Gulf Tue/Wed. Very high shear. Cold front will produce 40-50kt north wind out there Wed/Thu.

They don’t really use SFMR at all anymore and seem to very rarely use it on a case by case basis now. NHC will only be inclined to upgrade if the FL surpass 40-42 kt FL which at 850 mb would translate down to 35 kt. Right now I’m not seeing that from recon.

[chaser1]

Plane found 35kt SFMR, so I think they'll upgrade it. No model now has it surviving to reach the Gulf, though. Just remnants moving NE across eastern Gulf Tue/Wed. Very high shear. Cold front will produce 40-50kt north wind out there Wed/Thu.

They don’t really use SFMR at all anymore and seem to very rarely use it on a case by case basis now. NHC will only be inclined to upgrade if the FL surpass 40-42 kt FL which at 850 mb would translate down to 35 kt. Right now I’m not seeing that from recon.

I guess entirely dependant on whether that was an initial pass, or recon's final pass for this mission. If initial, than my guess is that they'll find slightly higher winds (even if a bit further from center). I think NHC would then justify an upgrade based on slow deepening trend & proximity to land. Such is so often the case for GOM systems. A Special Advisory for upgrade wouldn't surprise me.

[wxman57]

The first pass through missed all the squalls. No doubt, it's Sara. My new forecast has it emerging off NW Yucatan Tue AM then weakening to a remnant low in NE Gulf by Wed AM. Could be a remnant low when it gets to Gulf.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm struggling to see how this will make it past 35kts max. Guessing this just buries itself in CA and never even makes it to the Yucatan but I could be wrong.

[cycloneye]

Great post from Dr Levi Cowan.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1857096280197005683

Tropical Depression 19 (#TD19) continues to gradually organize, but has not yet formed an inner core. Aircraft reconnaissance is finding a broad wind field with max surface winds around 35 mph. The storm center is located just east of #Honduras. A belt of somewhat dry low to mid-level air is wrapping into the NE quadrant, disrupting core convection a bit.

Due to where TD19's vorticity ultimately coalesced, its westward track will carry it rather close to or over Honduras in the near future. The storm will also slow down considerably due to weakening steering currents as a ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to potentially extreme flooding risk for portions of Honduras through the weekend.

On Sunday or Monday, TD19 is expected to accelerate again northwestward around the western side of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, likely moving into #Belize and then crossing the #Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity of TD19 is highly dependent on just how much it interacts with the land mass from now through the weekend. Any track deviation farther over water could result in a stronger storm approaching Belize.

The currently anticipated land interaction over the next 4 days is now expected to weaken TD19 considerably prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some models now suggest the storm could dissipate entirely, but at 4-5 days out, there is still uncertainty in this portion of the storm's life cycle. TD19 or its remnants would likely turn north and northeastward across the gulf. Any potential impacts to the north or eastern gulf coast remains uncertain, but recent trends have been good news. Folks in the region should continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days just in case.

[galaxy401]

1008 mb extrap. Very weak. Might not even get named before landfall given how weak it is right now.

It got named.

[MarioProtVI]

1008 mb extrap. Very weak. Might not even get named before landfall given how weak it is right now.

It got named.

Yeah turns out that was from the eastern side of the LLC that was further west.

[underthwx]

FWIW, PTC-19 finally appears to possess a dynamic satellite presentation of a T.D. I expect the further upgrade to T.S. by later tomorrow morning. 2024 - The year that keeps on giving.

You were correct! Along with Xman57. Now a tropical storm! Do you think the cyclone will be of hurricane strength, prior to interaction with wherever Sara may possibly make a landfall?

[wxman57]

FWIW, PTC-19 finally appears to possess a dynamic satellite presentation of a T.D. I expect the further upgrade to T.S. by later tomorrow morning. 2024 - The year that keeps on giving.

You were correct! Along with Xman57. Now a tropical storm! Do you think the cyclone will be of hurricane strength, prior to interaction with wherever Sara may possibly make a landfall?

No, it'll mostly be over land next 48 hrs. Maybe 45 kts max when it briefly moves offshore before it moves inland over Belize Sunday.

[Blown Away]

NHC places the center at 15.7N/82.9 at 1:00... Clearly the circulation is still broad and feeling the land, maybe it pulls together closer to 16N/82.5 moving ~WNW??

[beachnut]

Could be trouble for Ambergris Cay...

A friend of mine has property on Ambergris and plans on retiring there in a few years.

Looks like Roatan and the Bay Islands are catching the weather now from Sara. Been there several times, some of the very best scuba diving around these parts.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Looks like it was a short recon mission. Plane found lower wind than this morning. Glad to see NHC now indicating dissipation over the Yucatan. Makes my life easier.

[weathernet]

Looks like it was a short recon mission. Plane found lower wind than this morning. Glad to see NHC now indicating dissipation over the Yucatan. Makes my life easier.

You and me both. Florida does not need another storm!!
Tim

[Sciencerocks]

[johngaltfla]

SWFL thanks Sara for not planning to visit as a hurricane as some early models projected.

Can we please get some real cold fronts now and close this door in the Gulf of Mexico?

We're still cleaning up down here.