SIO: BHEKI - Tropical Storm

[Subtrop]

95S INVEST 241111 1200 9.3S 80.9E SHEM 15 1006

[Pasmorade]

What are the chances this becomes Bheki?

[Pasmorade]

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(LESS THAN 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[WaveBreaking]

Looks really good for an off-season cyclone

[Hurricane2022]

I was looking for this thread but I didn't realised that nobody cares about Bheki

[Pasmorade]

I was looking for this thread but I didn't realised that nobody cares about Bheki

Alas, that is the fate of many SWIO storms.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of November 16 at 4:23 p.m. local time in Reunion Island (3:23 p.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.

There is no current cyclone alert in Reunion.

There is no current cyclone warning in Mayotte.

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 978 hPa.

Position on November 16 at 4 p.m. local time: 14.6 South / 72.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1895 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2950 km to sector: EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 15 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI reached tropical cyclone status this morning and is continuing its trajectory towards the southwest.

- It is expected to maintain this trajectory until Monday before slowing down to begin a turn towards the west late Monday.

- BHEKI is expected to continue to intensify, reaching its peak intensity tomorrow (without reaching intense tropical cyclone status), before gradually weakening early next week.

- The system is quite compact, even if a deterioration in the weather is expected on Rodrigues

On Tuesday, there should be no significant impacts on the island. However, a swell of 4 to 6m is expected from Tuesday. The inhabitants of Rodrigues are therefore invited to follow the evolution of the system through the Mauritius Meteorological Service.

- For the sister islands, it is still too early to predict possible impacts.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1857814199902019892

[Hurricane2022]

Bheki is now a major tropical cyclone as per JTWC (100 kt/961 mb)

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of November 17 at 4:22 p.m. local time in Reunion Island (3:22 ​​p.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.

There is no current cyclone alert in Reunion.

There is no current cyclone warning in Mayotte.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 280 km/h.

Estimated central pressure: 943 hPa.

Position on November 17 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.4 South / 70.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1580 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2700 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI has been an intense tropical cyclone since last night and continued to intensify on Sunday afternoon. It is expected to reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours before gradually weakening on Monday on a southwesterly track.

- From Tuesday, its trajectory will curve towards the west-southwest, gradually bringing it closer to the Mascarenes from the east, but with an intensity that should weaken significantly.

- In Rodrigues, a passage close to the island is expected between Tuesday evening and Wednesday noon, probably at the stage of a moderate tropical storm. A dangerous sea state is expected between Tuesday and Wednesday. Disturbed conditions with strong winds are likely between Tuesday evening and Wednesday. The inhabitants of Rodrigues are invited to keep informed via the Mauritian national meteorological service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- Concerning the sister islands (Mauritius and Reunion), the system could circulate nearby but at an even weaker stage. Even if a deterioration in weather conditions is possible from Wednesday evening and Thursday, the uncertainty about the trajectory forecast at this still distant date does not allow us to quantify the expected impacts.

https://meteofrance.re/fr/cyclone

[Pasmorade]

Bulletin of November 17 at 4:22 p.m. local time in Reunion Island (3:22 ​​p.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.

There is no current cyclone alert in Reunion.

There is no current cyclone warning in Mayotte.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 280 km/h.

Estimated central pressure: 943 hPa.

Position on November 17 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.4 South / 70.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1580 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2700 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI has been an intense tropical cyclone since last night and continued to intensify on Sunday afternoon. It is expected to reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours before gradually weakening on Monday on a southwesterly track.

- From Tuesday, its trajectory will curve towards the west-southwest, gradually bringing it closer to the Mascarenes from the east, but with an intensity that should weaken significantly.

- In Rodrigues, a passage close to the island is expected between Tuesday evening and Wednesday noon, probably at the stage of a moderate tropical storm. A dangerous sea state is expected between Tuesday and Wednesday. Disturbed conditions with strong winds are likely between Tuesday evening and Wednesday. The inhabitants of Rodrigues are invited to keep informed via the Mauritian national meteorological service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- Concerning the sister islands (Mauritius and Reunion), the system could circulate nearby but at an even weaker stage. Even if a deterioration in weather conditions is possible from Wednesday evening and Thursday, the uncertainty about the trajectory forecast at this still distant date does not allow us to quantify the expected impacts.

https://meteofrance.re/fr/cyclone

According to the MFR, Bheki is now the most intense SWIO cyclone in the month of November...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 965 hPa.

Position on November 18 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.3 South / 69.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1470 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2630 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI has started to weaken this night. At 10am local time, the tropical cyclone is located less than 700km northeast of Rodrigues and is moving rather slowly towards the southwest.

- In the next 24 to 48 hours, BHEKI should experience a marked weakening. It is therefore a weakened system which should circulate near the Mascarenes on a trajectory oriented to the southwest.

- In Rodrigues, a passage close to the north of the island is expected on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday with a deterioration in weather conditions. While rainfall should remain light to moderate, strong winds and dangerous seas are expected between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Residents of Rodrigues are invited to keep informed via the Mauritian national meteorological service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- In Mauritius, a deterioration in the weather is expected during the day on Wednesday accompanied by the arrival of a strong to very strong swell. Its magnitude remains uncertain given the timing and the uncertainties about the passage distance. The inhabitants of Mauritius are invited to follow the evolution of the system via the Mauritian national meteorological service.

- Concerning Reunion, the system could circulate near the south of the island during the day on Thursday, still at a weakened stage. Even if a deterioration in weather conditions is possible from Wednesday evening and Thursday, the uncertainty about the trajectory forecast at this still distant deadline does not allow us to quantify the expected impacts.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of November 19 at 10:42 a.m. local time in Reunion Island (9:42 a.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.

There is no current cyclone alert in Reunion.

There is no current cyclone warning in Mayotte.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 981 hPa.

Position on November 19 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.0 South / 67.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1225 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2420 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI continues to weaken and has been downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm. At 10:00 local time, it is located just under 450 km northeast of Rodrigues Island and is moving west-southwestward, accelerating slightly.

- The weakening trend is confirmed today and in the coming days and it is a weakened system that should circulate near the Mascarene Islands on a trajectory oriented towards the west-southwest. The most degraded conditions associated with the system will be concentrated in its southern part.

- In Rodrigues, a passage close to the north of the island is expected during the next night, accompanied by a deterioration in weather conditions. Strong winds, sustained rain and dangerous seas are expected between this afternoon and tomorrow morning. Residents of Rodrigues Island are invited to keep informed via the Mauritian National Meteorological Service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- In Mauritius, worsening weather is expected between Wednesday and Thursday morning, accompanied by dangerous seas. Residents are advised to monitor the evolution of the system via the Mauritian National Meteorological Service.

- Concerning Reunion, the system could circulate near the south of the island during the day on Thursday, still at a weakened stage. A deterioration in weather conditions, particularly rainy, could occur from Wednesday evening. Its extent remains to be specified according to the precise trajectory.

[underthwx]

I was looking for this thread but I didn't realised that nobody cares about Bheki

Not true. I do care, bout events halfway round the world that affect my fellow humans, including you my friend. Peace.

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 3

(BHEKI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 980 hPa.

Position on November 19 at 10 p.m. local time: 18.5 South / 65.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1045 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2260 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.


System Information:

- BHEKI is experiencing a pause in its weakening this evening and remains at the stage of a strong tropical storm. At 18:00 local time, it is located nearly 250km northeast of Rodrigues Island and is moving towards the west-southwest while accelerating.

- The weakening trend is expected to resume tomorrow and for the next few days and it is a rather weakened system that should circulate near the Greater Mascarene Islands (Mauritius and Reunion) on a trajectory oriented towards the southwest. The most degraded conditions associated with the system will be concentrated in its southern and eastern part.

- In Rodrigues, a passage close to the north of the island is expected late tonight, accompanied by a deterioration in weather conditions. Strong winds, sustained rain and dangerous seas are expected until tomorrow.

Residents of Rodrigues Island are advised to keep themselves informed via the Mauritius National Meteorological Service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- In Mauritius, worsening weather is expected from tomorrow and Thursday morning, accompanied by dangerous seas. Residents are advised to monitor the evolution of the system via the Mauritian National Meteorological Service.

- Concerning Reunion, the system could circulate near the south of the island on Thursday, still at a weakened stage. A deterioration in weather conditions, particularly rain, could occur from Wednesday evening until Friday morning, but the extent will still be specified depending on the final trajectory of the system. For more details, please refer to the departmental forecasts (https://meteofrance.re/fr).