Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

The GFS looks about near normal temps with the cold front...

That's hardly impressive, but the bar is low. You can find cold air 300 hours out though to the north.

Yeah I was gonna say Tulsa is not impressed anymore with this front. Sounds about right

[Ntxw]

The GFS looks about near normal temps with the cold front...

That's hardly impressive, but the bar is low. You can find cold air 300 hours out though to the north.

Yeah I was gonna say Tulsa is not impressed anymore with this front. Sounds about right

My question from the beginning was the cold air. Even with the great delivery pattern what's on the ground up there isn't terribly cold, it's modeled cold. Even with a side swipe in a deeper cold air mass should have threats of freezes well into Texas in November.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The GFS looks about near normal temps with the cold front...

That's hardly impressive, but the bar is low. You can find cold air 300 hours out though to the north.

Yeah I was gonna say Tulsa is not impressed anymore with this front. Sounds about right

My question from the beginning was the cold air. Even with the great delivery pattern what's on the ground up there isn't terribly cold, it's modeled cold. Even with a side swipe in a deeper cold air mass should have threats of freezes well into Texas in November.

If the ao and epo are forecast to go negative, it should get colder. Kinda surprised models don't show it colder if that's true

[Stratton23]

The EPS has the EPO tanking negative to around -5 territory, also keeps the AO and NAO both negative through the remainder of november, also the GEFS has all of the teleconnections staying negative through the rest of the month, operational models may be confused because you’re certainly not going to have a warm period if all those teleconnections are negative, may just be a classic case of the operational models not handeling the upper air pattern well at all

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The EPS has the EPO tanking negative to around -5 territory, also keeps the AO and NAO both negative through the remainder of november, also the GEFS has all of the teleconnections staying negative through the rest of the month, operational models may be confused because you’re certainly not going to have a warm period if all those teleconnections are negative, may just be a classic case of the operational models not handeling the upper air pattern well at all

That is very interesting stratton. Definitely should be colder. Maybe in 10 days it will occur. Then again, maybe not

[Stratton23]

And now the 12z Euro AIFS wants to unload arctic air into the US lol

[Cpv17]

Think we’ll have to wait till December or very late November till things might get more active.

[Ntxw]

Yeah I was gonna say Tulsa is not impressed anymore with this front. Sounds about right

My question from the beginning was the cold air. Even with the great delivery pattern what's on the ground up there isn't terribly cold, it's modeled cold. Even with a side swipe in a deeper cold air mass should have threats of freezes well into Texas in November.

If the ao and epo are forecast to go negative, it should get colder. Kinda surprised models don't show it colder if that's true

It doesn't have the punch simply because there just isn't quality deep cold air. You can have a -100 (exaggeration) -AO but if all you're dumping is above normal Canada air, you're just gonna get near normal chill here.

-EPO can work but it hasn't happened yet, it's all long term modeled. I understand it's a broken record but real time results is all this modeled cold air yet we are still running well above normal. Now it's looking like a couple days near normal maybe slightly below then it's back to above. That's 2/3rds of November and sitting +5F or more.

[CaptinCrunch]

The models are on crack, but that is to be expected. Models don't understand these global patterns that are not the norm.

[Cpv17]

My question from the beginning was the cold air. Even with the great delivery pattern what's on the ground up there isn't terribly cold, it's modeled cold. Even with a side swipe in a deeper cold air mass should have threats of freezes well into Texas in November.

If the ao and epo are forecast to go negative, it should get colder. Kinda surprised models don't show it colder if that's true

It doesn't have the punch simply because there just isn't quality deep cold air. You can have a -100 (exaggeration) -AO but if all you're dumping is above normal Canada air, you're just gonna get near normal chill here.

-EPO can work but it hasn't happened yet, it's all long term modeled.

There’s some indications that our source region could begin to cool down towards late November.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

My question from the beginning was the cold air. Even with the great delivery pattern what's on the ground up there isn't terribly cold, it's modeled cold. Even with a side swipe in a deeper cold air mass should have threats of freezes well into Texas in November.

If the ao and epo are forecast to go negative, it should get colder. Kinda surprised models don't show it colder if that's true

It doesn't have the punch simply because there just isn't quality deep cold air. You can have a -100 (exaggeration) -AO but if all you're dumping is above normal Canada air, you're just gonna get near normal chill here.

-EPO can work but it hasn't happened yet, it's all long term modeled. I understand it's a broken record but real time results is all this modeled cold air yet we are still running well above normal. Now it's looking like a couple days near normal maybe slightly below then it's back to above. That's 2/3rds of November and sitting +5F or more.

The ensembles are showing it pretty good with the epo supposedly going negative, which should translate into op runs eventually showing it also imo

[Stratton23]

Im just sick of this above normal temperature crap, something has to give eventually

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Eric Webb is saying December will probably be really warm most likely but he thinks end of December should transition over to colder moving forward. Poleward aleutian ridge would help. He also thinks typically December are colder in niñas, but this year should be different

[Ntxw]

If the ao and epo are forecast to go negative, it should get colder. Kinda surprised models don't show it colder if that's true

It doesn't have the punch simply because there just isn't quality deep cold air. You can have a -100 (exaggeration) -AO but if all you're dumping is above normal Canada air, you're just gonna get near normal chill here.

-EPO can work but it hasn't happened yet, it's all long term modeled. I understand it's a broken record but real time results is all this modeled cold air yet we are still running well above normal. Now it's looking like a couple days near normal maybe slightly below then it's back to above. That's 2/3rds of November and sitting +5F or more.

The ensembles are showing it pretty good with the epo supposedly going negative, which should translate into op runs eventually showing it also imo

The ensembles show a trough off the west coast and mid continental ridge, during this. So if anything it would be a warm spike before anything comes.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles do agree that our source region may begin to build up with colder as we get toward the end of the month, but we will see about that

[Cpv17]

Im just sick of this above normal temperature crap, something has to give eventually

As long as we get regular rains I couldn’t care less if it gets cold or not lol today the weather was perfect. It’s been perfect all week for the most part. Tomorrow afternoon the humidity returns, unfortunately. If it’s gonna get cold, let it get crazy cold or snow. Otherwise it’s just not exciting for me. I rather us have weather like we’ve had this week.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles do agree that our source region may begin to build up with colder as we get toward the end of the month, but we will see about that

Yep, decent indication that we’ll flip the script on our boring weather pattern that we’ve had here for months as we enter December.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro AIFS just unloads arctic air into the central US

[Gotwood]

Seems like everyday that passes the “cold front” on models for this week gets weaker and weaker. NOAA 6-10 day is now calling for near normal temps for this time of the year.

[Stratton23]

Still looks like the end of november and into early december, their could be a major pattern change, we will see