ATL: SARA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Honduras/Nicaragua Border southward to Puerto Cabezas.




Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend.
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea.
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[wzrgirl1]

038
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.

The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been
improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which
shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt
based on the Dvorak estimates.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later
today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras,
and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak
steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days
of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable
westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as
the bulk of the latest model guidance.

Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities.
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However,
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance
envelope beyond 36 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become
better organized this morning, with improved curved banding
features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level
center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from
both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which
will provide more information on current intensity and structure.

The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12
kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will
continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The
ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in
weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should
slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move
northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track
forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and
is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains
over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system
could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including
Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these
areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve
especially over the western semicircle of the system after the
release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early
this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum
pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt.
These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm
Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support
35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that
value.

The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected.
The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara
should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to
the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued
deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the
center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which
should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches
Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of
the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to
be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is
in good agreement with the latest consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening
during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is
the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to
land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the
northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested
by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little
change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan
peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could
result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most
of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global
models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it
moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not
likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the
new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of northern Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to
spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and
Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection
closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force
Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found
925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial
intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that
the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the
northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat
elongated west to east.

Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara
forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras.
As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn
toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf
of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The
updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short
term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the
previous forecast.

While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for
some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and
proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening.
Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change
is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact
with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further
strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns
west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast
shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best
agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more
northern track than forecast could result in additional
strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on
Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree
that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its
trek across the Yucatan Peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over
northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[abajan]

Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
...

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara
overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16
data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern
Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras. Belize radar has provided
some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of
this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the
center either. Finding the center has been challenging overnight.
Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water
about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no
evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time. The
initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery
and continuity from the previous NHC forecast. The initial
intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at
40 kt.

Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause Sara to slow down today. The mid-level ridge is forecast to
move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing
for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the
Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early
Sunday. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the
track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the
previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids.

While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some
strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to
land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the
next 24 hours. Slight strengthening is then forecast while the
system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize. The bulk
of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope. After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous
forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle
of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of
Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward from Punta Sal to the border of Honduras and Guatemala.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from the border of Honduras and Guatemala westward to Punta Barrios.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES



Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized,
with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved
structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center
located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of
coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have
reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the
northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and
geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates
are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged
up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory.

Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally
westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped
northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the
tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then
forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then
expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward
motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance
this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC
forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will
largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able
to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara
offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before
moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little
higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into
the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of
the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is
expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will
likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next
shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm
warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES



Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in
the near term.

The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous and lies near the consensus aids.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.2N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well
north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the
western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't
changed much in satellite representation during the past several
hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent
with most of the estimates.

The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast
to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A
mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on
Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move
slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to
move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change
being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids.

While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear
through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any
intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind
field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the
current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change
through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying
into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the
Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance
and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the
center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and
the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less
organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The
ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of
convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on
this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is
forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the
west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center
over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or
its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the
southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in
strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when
the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken
after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that
it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of
Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the
intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global
models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could
interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the
northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near
the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is
fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest
side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the
initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier
scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate the system, which should help better determine the
structure and intensity.

The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with
an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast
to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest
through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just
beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its
remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady
through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity
guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara
moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the
next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in
good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the
Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast
shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The
remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance
convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part
of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES