ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Clear broad circulation just offshore...

[TomballEd]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d1bjCqNq/3bd57e95-39e4-4b16-b599-e91a07ae60d5.gif [/url]

Clear broad circulation just offshore...

That center is right over the beach or a few miles offshore, judging by the visible. Weak steering flow suggests prior mentioned MLC offshore with LLC following or a new center forming would seem possible. Looking at IR, the LLC is still generating bursts of convection, which would delay any movement away from the coast.

Anyone have instantaneous rain rate maps of the area?

[aspen]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d1bjCqNq/3bd57e95-39e4-4b16-b599-e91a07ae60d5.gif [/url]

Clear broad circulation just offshore...

So much for that meandering 30 ACE Cat 4 lol

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the center is back out over water.

[NDG]

The re-emerged naked LLC is heading straight for the Island of Roatan. Lacking a CDO, at least for now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, with the center offshore for the next 36 hours or so, there is certainly time for strengthening before Sara reaches Belize. Shear isn't bad, outflow is good, SSTs are plenty warm, and there is plenty of moisture. Models generally don't show much strengthening though. It kind of lacks a core, so it would have some work to do. It's a watch and see situation.

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

I've got to think that there's still some dry air being entrained at some level.

[WaveBreaking]

Sara might be attempting to mix out dry air somewhat near the center, but that convection needs to get way closer to really do anything imo

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Sara will dissipate inland tomorrow evening. First cold front moving across the Gulf on Tuesday. Second, much stronger front sweeps across the Gulf Wednesday. No redevelopment in the Gulf.

[chaser1]

Hands down, Sara is my candidate for:
"Best Looking Tropical Storm With Minimally Associated Wind"

[Sanibel]

Beautiful Floater showing last overwater attempt at forming...

Central America systems that tap the East Pacific have been known to get strong at other times of the year with different tracks...

[Emmett_Brown]

The latest NHC discussion is interesting regarding Sara's lack of an inner core:

"Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted
despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the
tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of
northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope
flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is
struggling to produce much deep convection near its center
currently."

[Sciencerocks]

[johngaltfla]

https://i.imgur.com/VW1t5vm.gif

Yeah, she's dead Jim.

[HurricaneBelle]

https://i.imgur.com/VW1t5vm.gif

Yeah, she's dead Jim.

https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/dracula-1_6352.jpg

Sara doctor (Bones) in the house?

[wxman57]

Observations across Honduras and Belize are not impressive - 5-10 kts (calm on the coast to the south). Not what one would expect to see next to a tropical storm.

Bones is assessing the situation.

https://wxman57.com/images/SaraObs.JPG

[WeatherBoy2000]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d1bjCqNq/3bd57e95-39e4-4b16-b599-e91a07ae60d5.gif [/url]

Clear broad circulation just offshore...

So much for that meandering 30 ACE Cat 4 lol

Could've probably been a powerful and long-lived hurricane if she ended up being a bit further north as initially anticipated by models. Slight pattern variability makes all the difference.

[Sciencerocks]