ATL: SARA - Models

[N2FSU]

6z




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[N2FSU]

6z




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

HAFS models seem to be hinting at some extent of redevelopment in spite of obvious shear. Perhaps the models are projecting the east GOM to once again moisten up ahead of the next cold front?

[tolakram]

Looks like timing will be everything.

[ThunderForce]

Uh... is this a hurricane? HAFS-A is showing a sub-990 mb storm from Sara's remnants.

[Stormlover70]

Uh... is this a hurricane? HAFS-A is showing a sub-990 mb storm from Sara's remnants.
https://i.postimg.cc/KYsSF9Xw/hafsa-mslp-wind-19-L-29.png

way overdone. The cold front is going to prevent any storm that strong. A frontal low with severe weather is more likely.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting setup. The globals mostly dissipate Sara over Belize/Mexico, but do show some mid level vorticity making it back into the GOM on Monday 11/18. The HAFS A and B, HWRF and HMON have consistently been showing some moderate development of the remnant vorticity. While SSTs in the GOM have cooled due to multiple storms, SSTs are still well above normal for this time of year. Global models only showed modest development of what became MIlton and have often played catchup this year with over performing GOM storms. I will certainly be watching until the front absorbs Sara completely.

[chaser1]

I havnt had the chance to compare the globals verses the regional models but the only possible solution for the discrepancy that I could think of might be either the regional models are forecasting a quicker timetable for Sara to into the east-central Gulf and remaining within the warm sector ahead of the front? That or, the regional models might be forecasting the front to be slightly delayed reaching the north GOM. I'll probably review the NAM in case of a "timing tie-breaker" LOL.

[Emmett_Brown]

The HAFS A, B and HWRF have backed away from regenerating Sara over the GOM; now they just show some remnant low pressure. I'll still keep an eye on it. Mitch spent way more time over land than Sara is supposed to, and still managed to regenerate into a respectable TS... so there's always a slim chance (very slim in Sara's case)

[tropicwatch]

Could be quite blustery with the remnants of Sara on Tuesday in the Florida Panhandle.

GFS MSLP & 10m Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024111712&fh=6

ECMWF
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024111706&fh=66

[Stormlover70]

Could be quite blustery with the remnants of Sara on Tuesday in the Florida Panhandle.

GFS MSLP & 10m Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024111712&fh=6

ECMWF
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024111706&fh=66

The peninsula as well.