Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

00z ICON goes out 180 hours, but it has the arctic airmass getting dislodged and entering the northern US, run ends with arctic front just entering kansas with much colder air behind it

Pacific is favorable on the run. Aleutian trough correlates to cold troughs eventually to us, and the jet slows over the NPAC. And so naturally the run has cold air pooling in N-Central Canada where it counts.

[HockeyTx82]

Getting a nice decent rain here at the Ponder weather station.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw stopping at 10 days since beyond that is pointless in models, seems the CMC and 00z GFS have a mechanism to drag down that cold air, also looks like they both have a piece of the tropospheric PV swinging down towards hudson bay or central canada

[Ntxw]

Some good cross polar flow on the Euro. Much of the Nhem cold is building on this side.

[HockeyTx82]

Got another storm training over my home this AM.

Up to 1.75" total from last night until now.

[rwfromkansas]

Up to 1.15 from last night and this morning, so not too bad.

2.31 for the month IMBY, which is much better than last year.

[Stratton23]

12z GFS brings a lobe of the tropospheric PV down into hudson bay around the 28/29th lol

[Brent]

Just please let there be some moisture when the pattern eventually flips is all I want

[Ntxw]

There isn't a great delivery mechanism yet on the guidance. But at least it's believable cold is/will be building in the source region and we will get more significant fronts due to it, that's better than what's been happening if you prefer cooler weather.

That being said, it's looking less likely there will be a freeze in November. The last few days may save it from being warmest, but a top 5 warmest is quite likely.

[Stratton23]

Brent the GFS has the right setup if you want winter weather in youre region

[Stratton23]

Noaas newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook , they are buying into a colder ( arctic airmass) pattern, colder air enters US in the 6-10 day outlook, cold air presses south in the 8-14 day outlook

[Brent]

The EPS definitely has some really cold members here the weekend after Thanksgiving

Actually it's a gradual drop starting on Thanksgiving and then the bottom falls out on some of them. There's even a few members with snow

Well see. I mean at some point soon it has to turn cold even if just for a couple days

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The EPS definitely has some really cold members here the weekend after Thanksgiving

Actually it's a gradual drop starting on Thanksgiving and then the bottom falls out on some of them. There's even a few members with snow

Well see. I mean at some point soon it has to turn cold even if just for a couple days

Typically the eps has the better handle on the 500mb pattern than gefs and geps. I would like to see my first freeze here soon

[Stratton23]

12z Euro AIFS has the cold air reaching texas at hour 192 ish or so, cross polar flow straight from the arctic circle, thats gonna be a cold run

[Golfisnteasy7575]

12z Euro AIFS has the cold air reaching texas at hour 192 ish or so, cross polar flow straight from the arctic circle, thats gonna be a cold run

That will be a great test for the euro AIFS this winter if it's any accurate or not

[Brent]

12z Euro AIFS has the cold air reaching texas at hour 192 ish or so, cross polar flow straight from the arctic circle, thats gonna be a cold run

That will be a great test for the euro AIFS if it's any accurate or not

Everyone said it was good during hurricane season...

[Ntxw]

12z Euro AIFS has the cold air reaching texas at hour 192 ish or so, cross polar flow straight from the arctic circle, thats gonna be a cold run

That will be a great test for the euro AIFS if it's any accurate or not

Everyone said it was good during hurricane season...

It hasn't performed well this Fall with showing cold fronts/air that didn't materialize. Maybe it will be different this time. We can just scroll back to October in this thread.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw while that is true, granted none of the models have done well with any fronts this year so far lol, but this at least has really good ensemble support that this cold pattern will come to fruition, how cold is anyones guess obviously, but with a blocking pattern like that, and a cross polar flow, it could get pretty darn cold for late november- early december lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw while that is true, granted none of the models have done well with any fronts this year so far lol, but this at least has really good ensemble support that this cold pattern will come to fruition, how cold is anyones guess obviously, but with a blocking pattern like that, and a cross polar flow, it could get pretty darn cold for late november- early december lol

Yes it is a better pattern, just noting the recent history with the model. If it is supposed to be AI enhanced/improved from the Euro, so far it hasn't verified well in the medium to long range than the Euro itself.

[rwfromkansas]

Nov. 22 is the first freeze for DFW on average, so hopefully it will be soon.