Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

Nov. 22 is the first freeze for DFW on average, so hopefully it will be soon.

Our latest first on record is in 10 days and we hit 33 in October. Just crazy. We may get close Thursday or Friday but I dunno

Something has to give soon even if it's just a quick cold snap

[Ntxw]

That is a lot of blocking in the NP-EPO region on the ENS. Interesting to note, we are kicking off the initial Aleutian->Alaska blocking now and continues the next several days.

It is stronger now in real time than the ENS (naturally with the smoothing) was showing a week ago, so I'd expect the later period block to trend up.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

That is a lot of blocking in the NP-EPO region on the ENS. Interesting to note, we are kicking off the initial Aleutian->Alaska blocking now and continues the next several days.

It is stronger now in real time than the ENS (naturally with the smoothing) was showing a week ago, so I'd expect the later period block to trend up.

I'm hoping the cold is further se than currently indicated in future runs.

[Brent]

GFS snowing here on Thanksgiving Day

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has several waves of colder air, followed by an absolute mother load of arctic air in the long range, -35 to -45 degrees showing in NW canada lol

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS coming in colder, thanksgiving looks cold on this run

[gpsnowman]

18z GEFS coming in colder, thanksgiving looks cold on this run

I hope so. I would like nothing better than to eat my shorts weather prediction for Thanksgiving.

[Stratton23]

I know its the Euro AIFS, but man the 18z run just came out and its very cold, but also has one of the most incredible blocking signatures that ive ever seen in a model being forecasted, just absolutely crazy

[Brent]

The CFS(I know...) is apparently on board with something big too it has a ton of snow here by December 3rd

I mean even if it's way overdone any snow this early would be a huge deal

[Ntxw]

It's so unusual to see the Aleutian low and trough towards Hawaii. That's the weak-mod Nino Pacific of old we've been missing for some time, it's just been beaten down over the past several years. If this comes to fruition it would break the status quo.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's so unusual to see the Aleutian low and trough towards Hawaii. That's the weak-mod Nino Pacific of old we've been missing for some time, it's just been beaten down over the past several years. If this comes to fruition it would break the status quo.

https://i.imgur.com/d1p2jy8.gif

In 2009 it nowed in Houston during that pattern.

[Lagreeneyes03]

It's so unusual to see the Aleutian low and trough towards Hawaii. That's the weak-mod Nino Pacific of old we've been missing for some time, it's just been beaten down over the past several years. If this comes to fruition it would break the status quo.

https://i.imgur.com/d1p2jy8.gif

In 2009 it nowed in Houston during that pattern.

That was the big DFW Christmas snow I think it was 6-8 inches, and the 14 inch Valentine's Day 2010 snow.

[Stratton23]

Arctic front arrives on thanksgiving on the 6z GFS

[Stratton23]

I like that 12z CMC run, troughs hangs/ digs out west with arctic air headed straight down the central plains, thats a good setup if you want a winter storm in the deep south

[bubba hotep]

[Stratton23]

If only that came to fruition! Honestly though if we can get a setup like the euro or CMC with a trough digging out west and the cold air spilling into the state out ahead of the trough, things could get really interesting

[gpsnowman]

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024111912/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yes please

[Ntxw]

1040s HP will do it.

[Brent]

I forgot the euro goes out to day 15 now dare I say that kind of looks like the CFS from yesterday I saw

[Ntxw]

This kind of 500mb is nice. Ridge off the W-coast, TPV near Baffin Island to funnel cold, Big backwards "S" trough over the west-central US.