Texas Fall 2024

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This kind of 500mb is nice. Ridge off the W-coast, TPV near Baffin Island to funnel cold, Big backwards "S" trough over the west-central US.

https://i.imgur.com/%20Tqthg7l.png

As I stated, earlier this fall, highs off the West Coast, positioned very similar to this screenshot, are very good for producing snow events in Texas. I believe there will be many troughs coming down at this angle all winter.

[Ntxw]

This kind of 500mb is nice. Ridge off the W-coast, TPV near Baffin Island to funnel cold, Big backwards "S" trough over the west-central US.

https://i.imgur.com/%20Tqthg7l.png

As I stated, earlier this fall, highs off the West Coast, positioned very similar to this screenshot, are very good for producing snow events in Texas. I believe there will be many troughs coming down at this angle all winter.

Even though it's all modeled, right now, the inclination of having ridges poleward near Alaska is promising. -PDO has shoved that thing well west and flat for so many years.

The Nina fail to neutral, and likely not get enough trimonthlies for it, will give us more variability. SOI and some other indicators, such as this NPAC config are much more Nino-like.

[Ntxw]

Some of these years had cold periods early in the season.

[gpsnowman]

December 2013 comes to mind. We all know how that turned out.

[HockeyTx82]

So wait, in 36 hours we went from it will never get cold again to the motherload is coming?

What am I missing?

[Brent]

2009 easily my favorite December analog ever here

I'm trying to not get worked up too much but this does have way more support than the other fronts had plus it appears it may be a series of fronts instead of all at once

[Ntxw]

So wait, in 36 hours we went from it will never get cold again to the motherload is coming?

What am I missing?

I wouldn't say the motherlode is coming, what was 300+ hours out (do we believe it?) has progressively shown up again under 300 hours and more models are on board with a wholesale change in the Pacific.

None of this has happened yet, we'll be getting a more reasonable front around Thanksgiving, and if more cold air builds in Canada after then we will get more cold into early December.

...so far the fronts have been wind shifts with nights cooling off.

[Stratton23]

Eric Webb thinks this winter might be more -EPO/+ TNH based

[Brent]

Im definitely seeing more people talk about cold here so that's a good sign

Someone said it's not a matter of if but when

[Stratton23]

Trough is digging more out to the west on 18z GFS run, looks similar to euro and CMC

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This kind of 500mb is nice. Ridge off the W-coast, TPV near Baffin Island to funnel cold, Big backwards "S" trough over the west-central US.

https://i.imgur.com/%20Tqthg7l.png

As I stated, earlier this fall, highs off the West Coast, positioned very similar to this screenshot, are very good for producing snow events in Texas. I believe there will be many troughs coming down at this angle all winter.

Even though it's all modeled, right now, the inclination of having ridges poleward near Alaska is promising. -PDO has shoved that thing well west and flat for so many years.

The Nina fail to neutral, and likely not get enough trimonthlies for it, will give us more variability. SOI and some other indicators, such as this NPAC config are much more Nino-like.

We do hope the Pacific gets reconfigured to allow more ridging out west to at least give us a few opportunities this winter. The pdo is very important on many levels.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I forgot the euro goes out to day 15 now dare I say that kind of looks like the CFS from yesterday I saw

Definitely fun to look at. Typically, we do see energy eject out of the four corners and develop a slp to our south or a stalled front. It's still all about timing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Eric Webb thinks this winter might be more -EPO/+ TNH based

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1858974921260769366

Also, the analogs post by Ntx. 12-17-1989..... leading up to one of the greatest arctic outbreaks of all time.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Eric Webb thinks this winter might be more -EPO/+ TNH based

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1858974921260769366

Also, the analogs post by Ntx. 12-17-1989..... leading up to one of the greatest arctic outbreaks of all time.

Wasn't winter over after that monster cold blast? I can't remember lol

[Brent]

Our TV met predicted December 3rd for first snowfall

He was wrong last year actually I didn't see a flake last year til right before January

And yes winter was over pretty much after Christmas 1989. Tulsa only had .2 the rest of the winter. It really was not a snowy winter here... No more snow than last year actually which sucked

[HockeyTx82]

So twisterdata.com is not working for me last two days.

Where do you all look at models these days?

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
/Thursday Night Through Next Wednesday/

The main story of the extended forecast is the continued cooler
temperatures through the end of the week before a warming trend
takes place over the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist
through early next week, but another storm system may bring our
next chance of rain just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

We will wrap up the week with nice and cool weather as another
cold front moves across the region Thursday night into Friday
morning. The day will start with temperatures in the 30s to low
40s, warming up to the 60s Friday afternoon. A surface high
pressure will move over our region behind the front on Friday,
keeping the light northerly winds and clear skies in place.

The pattern will transition to a more zonal flow aloft with the
surface high pressure moving to our east. This will result in a
warming trend as south winds return to North and Central TX.
Models are in very good agreement that daytime highs on Sunday
will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Breezy south/southwesterly
winds are also expected on Sunday thanks to a tight pressure
gradient between the surface high to our east and a low pressure
system to our northwest over the TX/OK Panhandles.

The beginning of next week still looks mild and dry, but another
storm system may be moving from the Rockies into the Plains during
the Tuesday-Wednesday period. As expected, model spread increases
during this period especially with the overall progression of the
upper trough and associated cold front. For now, the official
forecast will have a mention of low rain chances across the
eastern half of our area late Tuesday into Wednesday but be aware
that this could change over the next several days. While the
latest cluster analysis show a little over 50/50 chance that the
upper trough will remain over the southern Plains during the
Wednesday-Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) period...it is still too
early to tell if rain chances will linger until then. Stay tuned!

Sanchez

[South Texas Storms]

So twisterdata.com is not working for me last two days.

Where do you all look at models these days?

TropicalTidbits and PivotalWeather are the best free model sites out there these days.

[Brent]

Well it's our coldest day since April

Baby steps I guess

30s and rain on the GFS for Thanksgiving with a lot of snow in Kansas

[Ntxw]

Overall the next week looks like couple of cool days rest of this week ongoing, spike up to warm by end of the weekend, more seasonal midweek.

Thanksgiving might be below normal to near normal depending where you are and what model. Potentially cooler to the north, warmer near the coast all dependent on timing of fronts.

After that ENs has stout Alaskan EPO blocking and we see hints of it on the OPs, sometimes extreme, will we see a start to December like the 2013 EPO block?



This severe -EPO had profound changes that many of us didn't realize at the time, the distribution logistics of shipping (Amazon sped up their plans to internally deliver) had changed drastically due to the extensive delays that continued through the Christmas Season. That cobblestone ice had a huge effect since North Texas and surrounding regions are such large distribution hubs for many of the packages going out to the rest of the country.

That -EPO period kicked off during the last week of November, much like it is starting now up there.

Code: Select all

2013 11 21  -12.38
2013 11 22  -95.27
2013 11 23 -115.60
2013 11 24 -164.46
2013 11 25 -160.94
2013 11 26 -128.43
2013 11 27 -134.27
2013 11 28 -123.01
2013 11 29  -81.53
2013 11 30  -66.86
2013 12 01  -77.72
2013 12 02 -193.56
2013 12 03 -314.03
2013 12 04 -301.28
2013 12 05 -272.90
2013 12 06 -293.90
2013 12 07 -275.07
2013 12 08 -259.23
2013 12 09 -252.37
2013 12 10 -200.19
2013 12 11 -109.29
2013 12 12  -48.65