Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

We're pretty much on track with a big freeze but I just can't get past how unacceptably bad the last two winters have been here. Whatever happens this year I just hope there's not another donut hole around the metro. I can't watch it again. I'd rather there just be no snow anywhere than that mess

[wxman22]

I've hit freezing 3 times over the last week, with another freeze expected tonight and tomorrow. So we are quickly catching up for the lack of freezes up here.

[Ntxw]

As noted last night there is still a storm signal around the 10th. Should watch this, especially if things trend a little colder.

Being that we are near to slightly below average, another cold shot would bring it down a little more.

[gpsnowman]

The warm fall has delayed our Texas version of fall foliage. Normally we peak around Thanksgiving and some trees around the neighborhood have yet to even change color. I noticed this in east Texas as well traveling there over Thanksgiving. Just need a pattern change to shake things up. Plenty of time to go so I wouldn't fret. Happy December everyone, the official start of the winter season!!

[Ntxw]

The warm fall has delayed our Texas version of fall foliage. Normally we peak around Thanksgiving and some trees around the neighborhood have yet to even change color. I noticed this in east Texas as well traveling there over Thanksgiving. Just need a pattern change to shake things up. Plenty of time to go so I wouldn't fret. Happy December everyone, the official start of the winter season!!

Should pick up in earnest here the next week or so. Colder mornings, and cool days have definitely got more of the colors going the past few days.

I think we will see a change in the source region by middle December. There should be a much more expansive shield of cold air sitting in Canada and keep the very cold north, and warmer south with intrusion likely. 1030s HPs in Canada so far have only yielded modest 0s and -10s, but should change soon with -20s or more.

[Stratton23]

Im becoming very intrigued by models showing troughing digging out to our west with the se ridge building over florida, i like that setup for a winter storm or two down in the deep south, CMC has the cold air in place, could get interesting

[Brent]

I don't see a whole lot of support for the system around the 10th yet on the ensembles but we'll see. I do think the pattern is gradually changing after that... I'll be in Breckenridge then anyway and hopefully once I get back it's our turn. I am in no mood to wait til February

Oh and the fall colors are just now peaking here which is about 3 weeks behind schedule

[Iceresistance]

The warm fall has delayed our Texas version of fall foliage. Normally we peak around Thanksgiving and some trees around the neighborhood have yet to even change color. I noticed this in east Texas as well traveling there over Thanksgiving. Just need a pattern change to shake things up. Plenty of time to go so I wouldn't fret. Happy December everyone, the official start of the winter season!!

Should pick up in earnest here the next week or so. Colder mornings, and cool days have definitely got more of the colors going the past few days.

I think we will see a change in the source region by middle December. There should be a much more expansive shield of cold air sitting in Canada and keep the very cold north, and warmer south with intrusion likely. 1030s HPs in Canada so far have only yielded modest 0s and -10s, but should change soon with -20s or more.

The GEFS is showing a -EPO with a SE Ridge in the second half of December, it starts to show up after the 12th


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SGAB9.png

[Ntxw]

The warm fall has delayed our Texas version of fall foliage. Normally we peak around Thanksgiving and some trees around the neighborhood have yet to even change color. I noticed this in east Texas as well traveling there over Thanksgiving. Just need a pattern change to shake things up. Plenty of time to go so I wouldn't fret. Happy December everyone, the official start of the winter season!!

Should pick up in earnest here the next week or so. Colder mornings, and cool days have definitely got more of the colors going the past few days.

I think we will see a change in the source region by middle December. There should be a much more expansive shield of cold air sitting in Canada and keep the very cold north, and warmer south with intrusion likely. 1030s HPs in Canada so far have only yielded modest 0s and -10s, but should change soon with -20s or more.

The GEFS is showing a -EPO with a SE Ridge in the second half of December, it starts to show up after the 12th

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SGAB9.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SGAB9.png

EPS is giving that look too. Cold Canada and SE ridge, it's classic view of a cold outbreak. The models are also showing more expansive cold, unlike previous fantasy cold.

[Stratton23]

Classic SE ridge setting up potential an overriding event if we can get enough cold air down here and potentially a storm system to work with, the pattern mid month does have potential, but its just potential right now

[Ntxw]

Classic SE ridge setting up potential an overriding event if we can get enough cold air down here and potentially a storm system to work with, the pattern mid month does have potential, but its just potential right now

The system around the 10th (whether it snows/ice far south or not) should be the transition storm. It signals a shift from eastern trough to western-central trough. Beyond that time analog guidance, and some re-analysis suggest a more expansive cold air mass may settle in.

[Ntxw]

Take a look at the 1989 December to start the month and then the middle of the month.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw even though its long range, the 18z GFS does kind of mirrior those analog pictures you shared

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw even though its long range, the 18z GFS does kind of mirrior those analog pictures you shared

Take a look at this 18z GEFS (CORRECTION: 12z)

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGBmL.png

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Take a look at the 1989 December to start the month and then the middle of the month.

https://i.imgur.com/1s8dVJd.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ve2DfdV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Km4qhyC.gif

That would be very cold if that happened but in a new climate, a muted version of it. Overrunning events are one of my favorite events.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ntxw even though its long range, the 18z GFS does kind of mirrior those analog pictures you shared

Take a look at this 18z GEFS
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGBmL.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGBmL.png

That 12zgefs

[Ntxw]

Take a look at the 1989 December to start the month and then the middle of the month.

https://i.imgur.com/1s8dVJd.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ve2DfdV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Km4qhyC.gif

That would be very cold if that happened but in a new climate, a muted version of it. Overrunning events are one of my favorite events.

I have been keen that a colder December type of yore could happen this season. As you mentioned conditioned to our more modern climate and source region. The note here is that the 500mb flow may resemble that of the package of analogs that has frequently showed up where Alaskan ridging at some point sends way to a significant cold blast this month. No torch.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Take a look at the 1989 December to start the month and then the middle of the month.

https://i.imgur.com/1s8dVJd.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ve2DfdV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Km4qhyC.gif

That would be very cold if that happened but in a new climate, a muted version of it. Overrunning events are one of my favorite events.

I have been keen that a colder December type of yore could happen this season. As you mentioned conditioned to our more modern climate and source region. The note here is that the 500mb flow may resemble that of the package of analogs that has frequently showed up where Alaskan ridging at some point sends way to a significant cold blast this month. No torch.

We shall see. Trough has been too far east for everyone as of late. Maybe the extended pacific jet could have played into that somewhat. Pacific jet will retract soon and pulls trough west. That's why we don't get much snow here because so many things have to align

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw even though its long range, the 18z GFS does kind of mirrior those analog pictures you shared

Take a look at this 18z GEFS
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGBmL.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGBmL.png

That 12zgefs

I didn't see that, good catch
18z GEFS is less favorable

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance not too worried about ensembles in that long of a range, but the pattern certainly is their for a big cold outbreak after mid month