Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

Hard to know how next weeks system will turn out, as models are showing different solutions each run. The Euro has been pretty consistent on a drier solution though. We”ll have to see what the models are showing this weekend along with real time data to have a better idea on things.

[Iceresistance]

We got robbed on the 12z GFS, looks like the trough in Canada decided to uptrend and steal the moisture

[Brent]

Hard to know how next weeks system will turn out, as models are showing different solutions each run. The Euro has been pretty consistent on a drier solution though. We”ll have to see what the models are showing this weekend along with real time data to have a better idea on things.

Yeah it's hard to go against the drier solutions at this point unfortunately. I mean the highest chance of precip at all is 20 percent

Even in Colorado I think it's trending the wrong way

We still got a few days to turn it around but the trends are meh

[Stratton23]

Get ready for that pacific air to come flooding the US, next weeks system is look meh at this point, probably wont see colder weather return until early-mid january

[Brent]

Get ready for that pacific air to come flooding the US, next weeks system is look meh at this point, probably wont see colder weather return until early-mid january

Yeah our met is still talking about a prolonged warmup not just one day like today

I really hope January and February are way better than this

[Stratton23]

Brent agreed, just unfortunate, pacific ridging is unfavorable, very warm phase of the MJO, EPO and AO both going positive, might be a very warm christmas this year

[Iceresistance]

Dang it, the MJO is retrograding

In Phase 4 now

[txtwister78]

In another head fake move, EPS definitely has a stronger EPO signal for late December with a little faster progression out of the warm phases of the MJO. As mentioned yesterday, a lot can and will change even if the anticipated warmup comes mid-December as expected.

Models still sorting things out however in the longer term so best to just watch trends over the next few days. In the meantime, Friday & Saturday are definitely going to feel like winter with a chilly rain. Might have to make a run to the store for some chilli cooking. Going to be that kind of weather early weekend.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS does have a. rain/snow/sleet mix for eastern texas as the storm system passes, moisture and cold air availability as well as how far the system digs sw is still uncertain

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, so what are we talking about. I see posts saying snow and or cold rain. Then the next one says torch and get the shorts out.

Are we talking about two specific times and things or are the models flip flopping on the same time frame?

[Ntxw]

Ok, so what are we talking about. I see posts saying snow and or cold rain. Then the next one says torch and get the shorts out.

Are we talking about two specific times and things or are the models flip flopping on the same time frame?

Still a storm system with nonzero chance early next week. Currently over the Aleutians.

The warmth being talked about is 200-300+ hours out in the ensembles.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ok, so what are we talking about. I see posts saying snow and or cold rain. Then the next one says torch and get the shorts out.

Are we talking about two specific times and things or are the models flip flopping on the same time frame?

Still a storm system with nonzero chance early next week. Currently over the Aleutians.

The warmth being talked about is 200-300+ hours out in the ensembles.

If the mjo hangs out in the warm phases 4-6, it will stay warm until it can propagate into colder phases.

[Ntxw]

Ok, so what are we talking about. I see posts saying snow and or cold rain. Then the next one says torch and get the shorts out.

Are we talking about two specific times and things or are the models flip flopping on the same time frame?

Still a storm system with nonzero chance early next week. Currently over the Aleutians.

The warmth being talked about is 200-300+ hours out in the ensembles.

If the mjo hangs out in the warm phases 4-6, it will stay warm until it can propagate into colder phases.

Back on November 16.

Still looks like the end of november and into early december, their could be a major pattern change, we will see

The MJO is not going into favorable phases the beginning of December.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw you called it lol, hopefully it doesnt hang around 4-6 too long, the EPS does want to move the MJO through the warm phases quickly though

[Ntxw]

Ntxw you called it lol, hopefully it doesnt hang around 4-6 too long, the EPS does want to move the MJO through the warm phases quickly though

Yeah but we did manage a cooler period rather than blowtorch to start the month so other variables are at play. We'll have to wait and see if the long range ENS is a passing period, or something sustained. A few of us have mentioned it's going to be a variable up and down type season.

[Stratton23]

Im interested to see in a few days when the mesocale model’s come into range with our system over the aleutians/ alaska, we know we will have energy digging SW, cold air is a question as well as moisture availability, sometimes models like the NAM can sniff out wintry weather events when the globals cant see it, not saying thats likely, but will be interesting to see if any of the mesocale models have a different look in a few days

[Ntxw]

Some of the late ENS runs are already hinting at return of some Alaskan blocking. So we'll have to wait and see if it's a relaxation period or the models just having some trouble during a volatile period.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Some of the late ENS runs are already hinting at return of some Alaskan blocking. So we'll have to wait and see if it's a relaxation period or the models just having some trouble during a volatile period.

You was correct on the mjo not in favorable phases beginning of December. The models seems to be struggling more than normal the last few years imo. So many ebbs and flows attached to things

[Cpv17]

Some of the late ENS runs are already hinting at return of some Alaskan blocking. So we'll have to wait and see if it's a relaxation period or the models just having some trouble during a volatile period.

You was correct on the mjo not in favorable phases beginning of December. The models seems to be struggling more than normal the last few years imo. So many ebbs and flows attached to things

There’s probably more variables the models struggle to pick up on than it used to be.

[Texas Snowman]

On this very night in 2013, from Fort Worth NWS as Icemageddon was about to wallop North Texas:

———————

"THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE."